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Charmhills
17 July 2013 14:51:33


GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Agree there SF. Last weekend the GFS and ECM as well to some extent seemed to be toying with the idea of a breakdown from the NW, which both seemed to have dropped over the last couple of days. Now they seem to be considering the idea of a breakdown of sorts from the SW. Who knows? Like you though, I do think and have thought for a while that the models always struggle with blocked set-ups, regardless of what time of year it is.


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


David, you have got to go with that the models show even upto 144hs or more and if there is agreement with hot/humid thundery weather than I would say it is increasingly likely and not to be ignored.


As for the breakdown to much cooler, fresher weather, than that is sill along way out for now.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gusty
17 July 2013 15:07:46


You can see the reload of high pressure as we move into August.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Indeed you can Gavin.


Even the warmest summers are punctuated by brief cooler and less settled spells. If there is to be a breakdown from the stifling pattern at the end of next week it will be interesting to see how quickly the high pressure bounces back.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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nsrobins
17 July 2013 15:17:38

I'd like the temperatures to be moderated as much as this forum is at the moment!

The way the trends are shaping for early next week, we should see forecasts of 'increasingly thundery' entering into the output pretty soon. With that threat though come some very high uppers and humidity so look away now if you want cooler and fresher stuff.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Stormchaser
17 July 2013 16:15:48

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130717/12/99/h850t850eu.png


12z rolling out, lets see how well the block aligns for that bitter scorching continental drift


So far it's a bit more favourable for the heat than the 06z was so trends continuing there.


The main thing is to have no defined feature developing to the south and then being levered north by the trough near the Azores. ECM showed that on the 00z run... despite the two features being very weak and thousands of miles apart (still don't understand that run, even now - and I've been watching the models for years!).


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130717/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png


Okay... this is the first 12z run to show temperatures this high on Monday. Before now it's only been seen on 18z and 06z runs, which seem to be more prone to overdoing things than the 00z and 12z runs. As yet, no 00z run has showed such high temps for Monday, but then the trend only really got going on yesterday's 06z.




Now here's a problem - UKMO still isn't playing ball with the cut off low by the looks of things:


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013071712/UW96-21.GIF?17-18


I think the disagreement might be to do with UKMO moving some energy into the Atlantic from the U.S. more quickly than GFS, which acts to lever the would-be cut-off low NE instead of letting it drop SE. That difference is now at just 60 hours range!

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Rob K
17 July 2013 16:24:10
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Stormchaser
17 July 2013 16:36:02

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130717/12/171/h850t850eu.png


It's the ECM 12z op run from yesterday, but slightly more progressive as the plume reaches the level above one day sooner.


The main change from the 06z is a slightly stronger cut-off low moving through the Azores, which seems to then promote higher heights to our NE as was seen on the aforementioned ECM 12z op run.




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


UKMO now has a very tiny amount of energy dropping off near the Azores, but it remains very different to GFS. Even so, it shows some very stagnant heat building - under an almigthy col - and looks to be bringing in renewed high pressure from the SW on day 6.

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Downpour
17 July 2013 16:43:33

looking at this morningsGFS, interestingly GFS showing possible scenarios in FI post the discussed possible breakdowns. - What does it go for? a return of the Azores HP to drift up again.

Really wouldnt surprise me, as it was the flavour of the winter, where we were locked in a pattern of stuborn HPs which gave us excellent extended wintry conditions. Wouldnt mind a few days of thunderstorms for dry weather and subsequent heat building.

Similar to how we had been locked in a pattern of stubborn warm winters over the past few years - I wonder if this is the new flavour of the day for our weather for the next few years?

This has the potential to be the summer we tell the kids about, similar for the winter. Exceptional.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 




Summer of 76 part 2?
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2013 16:48:29
Gooner
17 July 2013 16:54:00


Back down to average in low res after it all goes bang at 192hrs


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Temps wont be far off 25c I should imagine

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2013 16:55:48



Back down to average in low res after it all goes bang at 192hrs


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Temps wont be far off 25c I should imagine


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes still pretty good when compared to last summer.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
17 July 2013 16:58:11




Back down to average in low res after it all goes bang at 192hrs


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Temps wont be far off 25c I should imagine


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes still pretty good when compared to last summer.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed , without a doubt ,wont complain

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 July 2013 17:00:03

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn36017.png


August starts warm

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
17 July 2013 17:39:03
GFS has actually picked up the track of these storms quite well:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs033.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs063.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
17 July 2013 17:43:14



GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Agree there SF. Last weekend the GFS and ECM as well to some extent seemed to be toying with the idea of a breakdown from the NW, which both seemed to have dropped over the last couple of days. Now they seem to be considering the idea of a breakdown of sorts from the SW. Who knows? Like you though, I do think and have thought for a while that the models always struggle with blocked set-ups, regardless of what time of year it is.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


David, you have got to go with that the models show even upto 144hs or more and if there is agreement with hot/humid thundery weather than I would say it is increasingly likely and not to be ignored.


As for the breakdown to much cooler, fresher weather, than that is sill along way out for now.


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


Agreement is the key word Duane. As I see it, we don't have complete agreement or indeed anything close to it across the models just now. I think that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead is almost FI range right now. Yes, we can only go with what the models show us but by the same token we shouldn't take them as gospel, for the reasons I mentioned this morning.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
17 July 2013 18:00:44

 20 uppers very near the south coast on gm all be it in f1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=0


very hot looking gm run

Jim_AFCB
17 July 2013 18:39:48


 20 uppers very near the south coast on gm all be it in f1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=0


very hot looking gm run


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


South coast? I thought the next one was in Hungary weekend after next.......

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here. 
Charmhills
17 July 2013 18:42:49




GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Agree there SF. Last weekend the GFS and ECM as well to some extent seemed to be toying with the idea of a breakdown from the NW, which both seemed to have dropped over the last couple of days. Now they seem to be considering the idea of a breakdown of sorts from the SW. Who knows? Like you though, I do think and have thought for a while that the models always struggle with blocked set-ups, regardless of what time of year it is.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


David, you have got to go with that the models show even upto 144hs or more and if there is agreement with hot/humid thundery weather than I would say it is increasingly likely and not to be ignored.


As for the breakdown to much cooler, fresher weather, than that is sill along way out for now.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Agreement is the key word Duane. As I see it, we don't have complete agreement or indeed anything close to it across the models just now. I think that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead is almost FI range right now. Yes, we can only go with what the models show us but by the same token we shouldn't take them as gospel, for the reasons I mentioned this morning.


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png


Pretty good agreement there, hot, humid and thundery, especially for the south at this stage, with the north likely to stay totally dry the longest based on tonights runs.


The Met/o fax charts should give more detail in the next few days.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Stormchaser
17 July 2013 18:51:26

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif


This is very close to the 12z GFS op run - just slightly weaker with the HP to the NE with uppers a smidge lower... but a gentler airflow would probably more than balance against that in terms of surface temperatures and in particular the feel of things.


When you look at it, UKMO's not as isolated as you might think tonight, indicating that it's moved quite some way towards the GFS/ECM consensus compared with the 00z UKMO run, which was on a different planet (where it hung out with NAVGEM).


NAVGEM remains close to UKMO tonight, in fact it gives a good idea as to where UKMO would go:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-0-180.png?17-19


Before that, the run features a brief thundery interlude with 20°C uppers in the SE:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-0-102.png?17-18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013071712/navgem-1-102.png?17-18


...so arguably that model's version of events is ideal for those of us who desire some thunderstorms followed by a quick reload of more stable but still very warm to hot conditions. Shame it tends to get a bit carried away with things!




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif


Strong thundery plume alert!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Charmhills
17 July 2013 18:54:49

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif


ECM FI, hot it not locally very hot and bangy again especially, for the south.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Stormchaser
17 July 2013 19:00:39


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif


ECM FI, hot it not locally very hot and bangy again especially, for the south.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Find the mist and low cloud over Folkestone


Staggering charts - ECM has backtracked from the 00z back to yesterday's 12z.


Funny how ECM makes a statement on day 9 by not following those GFS runs that rapidly develop a stronger low to begin FI. We'd have a very hot day featuring strong thunderstorms and then the next day... would still be into the 30's in places with the liklihood of further thunderstorms! < very subjective smiley!




btw Duane I love your description "hot and bangy"

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2013 19:05:28

Still hot in 10 days


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html Still not a full breakdown either shown in 10 days.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
17 July 2013 19:08:06

intresting jap run how it handles that energy would not take much for ecm to go that route either


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1


seems like it would not be long before she could take control again

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