The puzzle for me is the Meto MRF's, the Meto forecasts were hopeless at predicted the arrival of the heat wave despite cross model support at the end of June and have wrongly been predicting a breakdown in the 7-10 day timeframe since it arrived. If I was involved in the UK tourism industry I would be furious as they seem to be endlessly talking down the UK summer weather.

So much for the Meto GW bias, it's exactly the opposite!

I am a fan of Meto forecasts but the MRFs have been appalling this summer and could have cost the UK Tourism industry lot of money.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 16 Jul 2013 to Tuesday 30 Jul 2013: 

There are signals that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month should continue across most parts of the UK during at least the first half of this period. This means rainfall should be below average, with mainly above-average temperatures and above-average sunshine amounts.

Updated: 1141 on Mon 1 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Jul 2013 to Thursday 1 Aug 2013:

Early indications are that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month could continue across many parts of the UK, especially the south. This implies below average rainfall and mainly above-average temperatures and above-average sunshine amounts. However, confidence decreases with time through this forecast period.

Updated: 1218 on Wed 3 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Jul 2013 to Sunday 4 Aug 2013:

Early indications are that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month could continue across some parts of the UK, more likely in the south. This implies below average rainfall and mainly above average temperatures and above average sunshine amounts. However, later in the month and into the start of August more generally unsettled conditions look increasingly likely.

Updated: 1202 on Sat 6 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jul 2013 to Thursday 8 Aug 2013:

The balance of probability suggests conditions in late July being fairly similar to those of mid-July. As such southern regions are most likely to see periods of dry and settled weather with above average sunshine and temperatures and below average rainfall. Northern regions, meanwhile, remain most likely to be affected by bouts of changeable, unsettled weather. There are then some signs of some of these more changeable conditions spreading further south during early August.

Updated: 1229 on Wed 10 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Jul 2013 to Monday 12 Aug 2013:

The balance of probability suggests conditions in late July being fairly similar to those of mid-July. As such southern regions are most likely to see periods of dry and settled weather with above average sunshine, above average temperatures both day and night, and below average rainfall. Northern parts, meanwhile, are most likely to be affected by bouts of changeable, unsettled weather. This suggests some occasional spells of rain or showers, sometimes cooler conditions, but also some drier and brighter periods mixed in. There are then some signs of these more changeable conditions spreading further south at times into August.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 14 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Aug 2013 to Thursday 15 Aug 2013:

There is a good deal of uncertainty during this period. Currently there are some indications that northern parts of the UK will most likely be unsettled with outbreaks of rain, but some drier and brighter interludes at times. Meanwhile, southern areas seem rather more likely on balance to hold onto the fine and settled and sometimes warm weather, although there is an overall increased likelihood that rather more unsettled and less warm conditions may affect southern areas at times.

Updated: 1240 on Wed 17 Jul 2013

I agree. Where I think the mid-range forecasts failed was at the beginning of July where it was clear from the models that we were heading for a decent warm spell but the Met Office seemed very slow indeed to get on board. When the charts were predicting sunshine and temps into the high 20s for the first weekend of July (6/7th), the Met Office was still very much on the fence.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Jul 2013 to Saturday 13 Jul 2013:

Any outbreaks of rain on Thursday will mainly be across northwestern parts of the United Kingdom, with southern and especially southeastern areas having a dry day with some sunshine. Indications are that the generally fine and dry weather across southern parts of the UK will extend further north with time with a relatively settled spell of weather developing across most areas. There is still a chance of spells of rain at times, but these should be less frequent and become restricted mainly to northern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be close to average at first, but it is likely to turn increasingly warm in the south through next week, and it may become very warm in the southeast.

Updated: 1130 on Sat 29 Jun 2013

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Jul 2013 to Monday 15 Jul 2013:

There is reasonable confidence that high pressure will persist across the UK, giving mostly fine and dry conditions with a mixture of variable cloud and sunshine. Some glancing blows from Atlantic weather fronts are still possible across far northwestern parts, bringing some cloud and rain with cooler and breezier conditions at times, mainly western Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland. Lighter winds elsewhere with temperatures around or rather above normal at first, but a good chance of increasingly warm temperatures during the course of the following week, especially inland, becoming locally very warm in sunny conditions. There is a chance that isolated late afternoon showers may develop inland with this warmth. There are some signals that the high pressure could possibly ease away to introduce slightly less settled conditions by mid-month.

Updated: 1140 on Mon 1 Jul 2013

Rather than take the Model thread off topic, I thought it better to start a new thread to discuss this.  

Rather than take the Model thread off topic, I thought it better to start a new thread to discuss this.  

People have short memories, the MetO issued a statement on the 20th June stating that due to high SST in the Atlantic the UK can expect another decade of poor summers (by implication this to most people was a indication of what should be expected in summer 2013).

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

On the 28th June the MetO 10 dayer was still less than enthusiastic about the coming heatwave and when it arrived on the 5th July they expected it to breakdown within 10 days.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Jul 2013 to Friday 12 Jul 2013:

Unsettled conditions with outbreaks of rain on Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps persistent and sometimes heavy over northwestern parts, whilst southeastern parts may become drier and brighter on Thursday. Thereafter, there are indications that a relatively settled spell of weather will develop across many parts of the UK. However, further spells of rain are likely at times, but these should be less frequent and become increasingly restricted to northern parts of the UK. The overall trend through next week is for the weather across southern parts of the UK to become predominately fine and dry and for these conditions to gradually extend further north with time. Temperatures will generally be close to average at first, turning increasingly warm in the south through next week, perhaps very warm in the southeast.

Updated: 1148 on Fri 28 Jun 2013

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Jul 2013 to Friday 19 Jul 2013:

Conditions look likely to be fine, dry and settled with some long sunny spells across much of the UK throughout this period. It may often be cloudier across some northwestern parts of the UK with a risk of a little light rain. There is also a low risk of an isolated afternoon heavy shower developing over hills later next week and perhaps some cloudier conditions around North Sea and Irish Sea coastal areas. Away from the far northwest, it will be warm or very warm, and locally hot over inland central and southern areas. Towards the end of the period, it may turn more unsettled across northern Britain, with occasional rain or showers, while mostly dry, fine and warm weather is expected to continue across many southern parts.

Updated: 1121 on Fri 5 Jul 2013

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Jul 2013 to Saturday 3 Aug 2013:

Early indications are that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month could continue across many parts of the UK, especially the south. This implies below average rainfall and mainly above average temperatures and above average sunshine amounts. However, confidence decreases with time through this forecast period.

Updated: 1222 on Fri 5 Jul 2013

But I don't think it's at all fair to claim the MetO have been constantly predicting a breakdown in a 7-10 day timeframe when the 15-30 day outlooks have consistently referenced a continuation of fine weather, at least in the south (and, foc ourse, it has been unsettled at times this month in the north)   Yes, they have been suggesting a breakdown towards the end of July/beginning of August - which currently looks like happening perhaps a bit sooner than they have been predicting of late. 

IMO the British tourist industry has no cause for complaint this year.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter