Hi all,
Here's todays video update;
A Very Different August On The Way?
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
Models look concerning, but note I am NOT forecasting a poor August at this stage - Just perhaps not as good as July.
Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather
Hi Gav, top video as always, but I must admit I'm not sure we're going to see a poor August either.
My rationale behind this is very simple. Patterns such as the one we are in at present have a tendancy to rinse and repeat (as we often see in cold winters as well).
I think that as most models are based on NWP and probabilities, this somewhat skews the longer range models.
The reason for this is because the starting data for these longer range models will be factoring in the prolonged dry spell we are experiencing, and therefore, the PROBABILITY is that we will see a breakdown to a poor August.
But probabilities are not definitive. In a normal English summer, it's probable that this pattern will break, of course, but equally, there is just as much a chance that we will see a rinse and repeat.
I'm also not sure that the models have got the breakdown sorted yet, and I always think that until we see this breakdown, the models will continue to skew the longer-range prospects.
It's similar in late summer when the hurricane season is in full flow and models (all models) just can't get a grip of the pattern going forwards.
My opinion (for what it's worth), is it is highly likely we will see a spell of cooler unsettled weather next week and a spell of thunderstorms before hand.
But this does not necessarily mean a poor August will follow - it's just the NWP probability that August won't be as good as July.
The fact is, nobody knows, and no range of models will accurately predict what we are going to see.
Personally, I think August willl be a fine month, although clearly not likely to be as hot as July!
Originally Posted by: moomin75