Good evening. After a tiring day for me here is a shortened version of the normal evening review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM.
This week looks like starting very warm or hot and humid with an increasing risk of thundery rain and thunderstorms over the coming few days. By midweek a cooler and fresher SW feed will be making some inroads into the UK but overall the second half of the week looks warm too with occasional showers and still some thundery ones about but also some warm sunny spells too.
GFS then shows a warm and showery weekend before cooler Westerly winds develop over the second half of the output with occasional rain mixed with drier and brighter conditions when temperatures will reach normal values at least.
The GFS Ensembles show a breakdown in the coming week with the precipitation involved with the cooler air much more concentrated towards Central and Northern parts as warm High pressure is never a million miles away from more Southern areas at times.
The Jet Stream is cutting across the Atlantic towards the British isles where it turns North later in the week. In the extending output the flow crosses the UK on a West to East trajectory with cooler conditions for all then for a time.
UKMO tonight shows slack Low pressure well to the SW later in the week with warm weather still present for most though it would likely be less hot and humid than currently. For many there would still be some good dry and bright spells with warm sunshine while occasional and sometimes thundery showers will punctuate these periods almost anywhere.
GEM tonight shows a UKMO type projection at the end of the week moving on to maintain a showery spell of weather with the North the most likely to see the most showers while later it becomes cooler for all as Westerly winds and rain at times is shown to end the run with Low pressure located over Northern Britain.
NAVGEM today shows low pressure located to the NW of the UK in a slack way with light breezes for all. With dry and bright weather still likely for many with quite warm weather still in the SE there will be scattered showers, some of which would likely to be heavy, perhaps with thunder.
ECM tonight shows a showery weekend to come in 6 days time with the trend for showers to be concentrated towards more Northern areas as pressure rises slowly towards the SW at the end of the run. Temperatures, though cooler than of late will be still above average at times, especially at times in the South.
In Summary, though changes to cooler and more showery weather is still likely to follow the thundery spell of the coming days it will be far from a write off weather wise later in the week as many will maintain a lot of fine and reasonably warm weather with scattered and sometimes heavy showers. Longer term too unsettled weather is likely to figure in the forecasts with these synoptics but there will also be a fair amount of fine and dry weather still with sunny spells which will likely hold emphasis over anything wet.
Edited by user
21 July 2013 19:43:12
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset