Good to see you Geoff

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Had a nice storm last nice. Warm air with warm rain hitting the hot concrete floor - the smell was awesome!  Had nice flashes of lightning and big rumbles of thunder. On and off for a few hours! Perfect end to a hot and sunny day. More of that today please! 

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I might be wrong but I feel the North and East of the UK will be favoured for the best storms, home brewn by the hot and humid air in place while thundery rain may be more common in the SW rather than direct severe storms. In the South and West the trajectory of movement SW to NE is not our best direction for seeing storms down here as they have a large open space of water to cross getting here rather than a South to North movement off a hot French landmass. Could be OK for the SE though. Time will tell and not long to wait. 

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May not be far out there Martin. Combining ppn charts and the location of the moist axis and daytime heating areas in the NW could well see the most severe storms late Tuesday.
All areas though at risk:
Mon pm: Midlands; Mon night: S and SW; Tues day: England and Wales; Tues pm: Worst maybe N and NW England and SW Scotland.

 

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Worst maybe N and NW England and SW Scotland.

 

there's a suprise then , SE gets 34 yet north gets the severe storms , hows that work then . given the heat i was expecting the S/SE to get hammered

I've no doubt some areas in the SE will see storms over the next few days, but severe storms do not necessarily coincide with the highest temperatures!

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Watch our for The Midlands for this afternoon and early evening.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Updates watch should follow.....

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So are people concluding the SE is less likely to get hit this afternoon into this evening and more likely tomorrow?

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Ahead of yesterdays storms down here in Seaton there were numerous areas of Altocumulus Castellatus moving north at sunset

Long after sunset, the top of this storm approaching the Dorset coast was still clearly visible

Superb Dave.

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Some great pictures of the lightening last night in the local rag this morning.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/10562957.IN_PICTURES__Spectacular_lightning_storm_heralds_week_of_unsettled_weather/ 

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How do you get the old Metoffice site? When I enter www.metoffice.gov.uk I always get the new site.

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Try this


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html 

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Which is as per my original thoughts anyway. [sn_smile] I think if I do get to see anything tonight would come as a surprise bonus. But if I STILL don't see anything by Wednesday then there might be wailings and teeth gnashings on my part. 🤬 [sn_bsmil]

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Or perhaps the heat over the South East serves to feed the storms upwind? I THINK that what happened in that Midlands storm outbreak on the 28th June last year, it was quite warm and sunny over the South on that day.
For us to get the storms, they have to be French imports, the high-based ones that could survive the Channel Crossing. Or if the wind is coming in from the NW (eg, the colossal rainstorm of 16th Aug '96).

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Some Cloud Streets appearing now on Vis Sat in the E. Midlands.

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As mentioned above, unless there is absolutely no wind, the storms will always have been generated upwind from the recipients. Those of us south of the M4 do not have enough land to the south of us to have a storm fully made in time. I suspect your area will be more lucky. It is our heat that is making your storms for later.

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Yep. Primary focus fror late afternoon/evening will be along subtle CVZs that are discernable now on surface wind fields. I'd say a line Birmingham to Northampton from 16Z would be my target were I to be chasing. Although shear with depth is minimal, I wouldn't rule out a convergence funnel on any discrete storm to the North of the line later.

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Had a fantastic unexpected bonus last night. Camping near Corfe Castle in Dorset, around 8pm I saw some towering clouds in the far distance to the south, gradually getting closer and taller and turning pink with the setting sun. Then i could start to see flashes inside the cloud as it got nearer. Then as the sky got darker and darker there was a noise like an approaching train and a gust swept across the campsite sending our folding chairs flying! There followed a good hour long downpour with maybe one flash every 5-10 seconds at its peak, never directly overhead but within a mile or so. I got some video of the distant clouds and a bit of the storm itself but I never managed to get the peak intensity. Will post later when I am back home. On Studland beach now where it is toasty!

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Lucky you! I was looking in that direction having seen the radar last night, but no distant flashes visible. It must have been quite local as the rainfall doesn't seem to have been picked up by the official network of recording stations.

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Possible first signs of instability here now, but it's high up. Some Ac cas and some clouds that look from a distance like layered lenticular clouds but with cumulus growing out of the top of them.

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Sky full of alto cast. now
Temp up to +33c exactly

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cock all happening here. little more hazy still and hot.

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Things firing up the other side of the channel.

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Which looks set to miss us what with the steering wind coming in from the SW.

It does seem that tomorrow is going to be the day after all, unless things suddenly flare up in the night. I may try and sleep with one eye open tonight (apparently a goose can do that).

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