Met Office warning for Sat/Sun   heavy showers and thunderstorms...issued at 11:22 for South West....

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Storms around later on 6zgfs 

.http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1995/192-777_gyf9.GIF

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1959/180-505_xhm2.GIF

Very hot start to August looking more and more likely 32c possible.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png uppers approaching 20c for the start of August.

 

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Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

Unsettled August Looming?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like it could be a very different month to July?

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Looking very wet for the NW looks like a bit of a write off for the next week or two. Much dryer further south and east.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

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A bit odd, Matty. The point is that a plume of very warm air is coming extremely close to the SE of the country. Given how much the models have been shifting back and forth it is quite possible that >20C uppers could visit our shores. Talking about polar air when the winds are coming from the south is just silly.

 

Look here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1772.gif

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Looks like the very warm air next week, will be associated with fronts and a lot of rain.  I don't think even Kent will see 30C and hot sunshine, more like 21C and flooding.

I think 30C could easily be reached - as soon as there is any sunshine between showers the mercury has been shooting up even over the past few days.

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Latest NAE downgrades the rainfall amounts for Saturday/Sunday's system moving up from France - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Without meaning to go OT. At the moment I doubt I've seen things so finely balanced and at the same time complicated as they are at the moment.

 

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NAE has been poop of late Matt...It had rain for here until lunchtime but in reality the nearest rain was about 200 miles away in France.

Still a lot of rain for the s/e the ground is hard and a lot of water will run off I suspect local flooding maybe a issue in a few parts,

I wont water the allotment today with that lot on its way.

 

I'm assuming the NAE may also not be picking up on rainfall from any embedded thunderstorms very well?

it does look a very warm week espo from gfs next week above average for london untill end.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

 Bingo 31c just west of london http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

 

Met does mention T,s and L will be intresting night.

 

From Issued at - 26 Jul 2013, 11:22 Valid from - 27 Jul 2013, 12:00 Valid to - 27 Jul 2013, 23:59

Thunderstorms and areas of heavy, thundery rain are expected to move north from France during the course of Saturday afternoon and evening.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption to travel, due to surface water flooding and lightning strikes

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

 

 

 

 

Indeed Gavin insane looking some of them wide splits and contrast for uk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

 

 

The next couple of days seem to be playing havoc with the (local) forecasting as well as the national, so to water or not to water the track? That is the question at Leicester Speedway. ..... having said that, if it gets a light (man made) watering, then it might absorb a little of the rain thats forecast, rather than it just running-off an unwatered, baked hard racing surface.. Or do we want most of the rain to run off anyway? Then we control what goes in?
Soon found out!!!!

Now that's one big rain spike http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

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I'd say... almost the same altitude as the 850hps temperatures are! 

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That is pretty crazy - from 850s near 20C in the south at 168 to sub-zero in the north by 240!

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insane amount now for that part run this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/75h.htm

 

 

You've missed the point a bit. Gavin has a habit of posting things like:



And it's not his fault some people only read the "40c" bit and go off on one. Just adding a touch of silly balance 😉

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Yet only 4 - 10mm projected for this area - but what else is new?

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insane heat to our s/e 18 uppers clip kent for short while

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=1