Hello folks,

The Sunday video this week is a solar cycle's update;

Solar Cycle 24 Update And Hot Summer 2013:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/sc24-25.html

Solar activity has become very weak after a brief second peak in the spring.

Enjoy.

[quote=Gavin P;519010]

Hello folks,

The Sunday video this week is a solar cycle's update;

Solar Cycle 24 Update And Hot Summer 2013:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Solar activity has become very weak after a brief second peak in the spring.

Enjoy.

[/quote

Thanks Gavin.Fascinating.Re double peak cycle 24 agree it looks as though second peak has aleady ocurred although some of  experts were predicting second peak would be late Autum early winter 2013/4.

Broadly agere with your assertion that weak solar cycles favour colder winters this seems to be particularly around time of solar minimum.

which brings us to cycle 25 which many experts predict will be weaker than 24, giving a mouth watering prospect of a Dalton Minimum hand some really severe winters. 

Thanks guys.

SC, pleased you enjoyed.

Roger, SC25, on current projections, is certainly a mouth-watering, if chilling, prospect.

Watch the Winter be the mildest on record

Cheers Gav

Actually it's perfectly possible that it could be very mild - We're certainly due one - If weak solar cycle's mean anything it's extreme weather with dramatic swings between extremities.

The CET record shows that even in the LIA very mild winters did occur on occasion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if winter 13/14 was entirely snowless.

Equally I wouldn't be at all surprised if we was buired in snow....

We could also see big swings within the season itself, so we could get a very mild month and a very cold month within the season.

Interesting, thanks Gavin

My winter forecast will be issued late November/early December as always.

GLOSEA suggesting that late autumn/early winter is more likely to be average to mild than average to cold. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

We are certainly due a very mild winter.

Am I the only one who spotted the rude drawing at 4:42 

Sorry, my filthy and immature mind 

It doesn't have to be very mild, just mild, Atlantic dominated winter.

Take early February out of the equation and you could argue 2011/ 2012 was our mild winter in the midst of the current run of colder than average winters? 2011 had a very mild Autumn (early October with record breaking heat at the start) and November very mild too. December was very westerly and only at the very end of January into February did we have a short spell of Winter followed by a warm March and cold April. Given the decline in solar activity expected, I would not be surprised to see a winter of two halves with late December onwards becoming very cold and blocked - no one knows for certain of course but I look forward to the first Winter video from Gavin.

However, if you look at  ensemble mean sea level pressure for Oct-Dec things are looking very blockey around Iceland again;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Filth.

Yes, 11/12 was a pretty pretty mild winter with one intense cold spell.

Thanks for your kind comments. Things will start happening from September onwards as I start looking at the things I put into winter forecasts and it will all build to the actual forecast at the end of November.

Thanks for the vid Gavin, good quality as always

Those talking of winter... early signals are a strange combination of some high-lat. blocking and anomalously high heights across Europe. Technically I think this is possible if the high-lat. blocks locate in precisely the right/wrong (delete as appropriate) places.