July Convection and Thunder Thread Part II· Page 20

VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
Guest

01 August 2013 15:54:47

#476

Anything sprang off the Pennines yet?????
VSC

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

01 August 2013 16:06:20

#477

The incoming plume will certainly bring some instability. I had a look at the soundings for tomorrow afternoon which show appx 1000 CAPE at Leeds and 700 at Herstmonceux with instability from mid-levels to over 33K ft.

So some good potential although forecasts are focusing on the SE and East Anglia later tomorrow for storms

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Yep, some reasonable parameters around later tomorrow in Central N. England, but a fair degree of capping looks likely, and forcing looks thin on the ground. Some convergence zones possible, which might help things along.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

Capping remains the concern although the extensive banks of AcCas are encouraging

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Yes, oragraphic lift looks the most likely forcing mechanism, so Pennines most likely breeding ground this afternoon.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

By the looks of things there's been bugger all over the Pennines all afternoon .

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 August 2013 16:32:06

#478

The incoming plume will certainly bring some instability. I had a look at the soundings for tomorrow afternoon which show appx 1000 CAPE at Leeds and 700 at Herstmonceux with instability from mid-levels to over 33K ft.

So some good potential although forecasts are focusing on the SE and East Anglia later tomorrow for storms

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

Yep, some reasonable parameters around later tomorrow in Central N. England, but a fair degree of capping looks likely, and forcing looks thin on the ground. Some convergence zones possible, which might help things along.

Originally Posted by: Arcus

Capping remains the concern although the extensive banks of AcCas are encouraging

Originally Posted by: Sevendust

There's some patchy AcCas here to.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

idj20
Advanced Member

01 August 2013 17:46:46

#479

Can see castellanus and what's this little line of precipitation moving across the Kent/Sussex border?

Mind you, I'm not really expecting anything news-worthy on the storm front as CAPE readings aren't exactly off the scale. May pick up an odd thundery shower in the small hours at least to water the lawn a bit more.

Folkestone Harbour.

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 August 2013 18:00:32

#480

Plenty of AcCas now across the sky and some towers going up!

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Sevendust
Guest

01 August 2013 21:12:26

#481

The interesting thing today is how thunder free the whole of Europe is. Hardly any storms anywhere. The most active area appears to be west of Ireland which must be unusual in summer