[quote=KevBrads1;522314]I stumbled across this gem from 1st May 2007 that I taped and I didn't even remember I had. It's a BBC news report on the Met Office's prospects for summer 2007 saying 70% chance of warmer than average and 1 in 8 chance as hot as last year.
As we know, it was a washout at least June and July were
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTTyKoFSLnc[/quote]
Just proves that humans are idiots. 70% chance of something happening, is not 100%. 30% buffer is there for a reason. If people can accept that 70% means theres a good chance of something happening, they must accept that equally theres a 30% of something bad happening. Which means theres still a substantial chance of it going pete tong. Humans for some reason find this concept so hard to grasp. Hence why there is such a huge industry around gambling.
Also - a 1/8 chance - thats a 12.5% chance of it being as hot as the previous year,
Im not a betting man, but i understand odds, and if i ever saw a horse with a 12.5% chance of winning, I wouldnt part with my money.
Originally Posted by: Russwirral