Well I thought I might as well comment on this summer now we are well over half way through it and to all intents and purposes its turned out far better than we thought it would.

Indeed I have to say I am really quite amazed at how things have turned out given the fact that this summer had all the indications that it would be another poor one. There were no signs at all that this summer would come out in the good category and I'll go into much more detail with regard to that further on.

This summer follows 6 bad summers in a row. Those being 2007 to 2012 inclusive . Last summer (2012) was indeed little better than a total atrocity. The Manchester summer index for it placed it just ahead of 1956 which was the second worst summer of the 20th century -  only 1922 was worse. 2007 and 2008 were very poor indeed and 2009, 2010, and 2011 were not good  at all.

2012 was a bad year for weather for most places in the country and the summer of that year's bad weather commenced in April whereby each succeeding month was worse than the month preceding it. June was the worst I had known and July was almost worse still - August gave a little respite but nowhere near enough to lift  the summer out of the bad to disastrous category. In fact I think it is fair to say that summer 2012 was a disaster - Some places up north and in Scotland saw no sunshine at all for the first 16 days of July 2012.  Autumn was cool and wet, and winter was colder than average with many very dull days. March was the coldest since 1883 and April, May and June were poor.

June 2013 was OK ish for some parts of the country - but as Philip Eden pointed out June 2013 was the coldest since 1991 for parts of East Anglia and the South East. It seemed that Ian DJ on this forum and myself were the only ones to comment on this and we got some very unfair stick for this as well. We were not making up the poor weather that we were experiencing in June - Indeed we were not. June 2013 was dull and cool and on many days I struggled to see 15C - this was combined with an annoying east to north east wind and dull and cloudy skies kept temperatures well and truly down. It was a dreadful  June for those in East Anglia and the South East and it was only made marginally better by virtue of the fact it was dry overall.

After over a year of poor weather and a colder than average winter and a very cold spring - There were no signs at all of any real improvement. Pattern matching statistics gave a less than 10% chance of a decent summer and with June refusing to give any meaningful sign of any decent weather I was feeling almost suicidal with depression. I reckon from April 2012 to June 2013 I must have experienced little more than 1,000 hours of sunshine in that 14 month period. The annual average for my area is 1,430 hours of sunshine a year.  There was no indication at all that July would deliver not only a spell of decent weather - but basically to all intents and purposes most certainly not a heat wave. This was incredible really. In essence we ended up with one of the 10 best Julys in a century. I was adamant just a few weeks before that we would not see a decent summer. This summer is now well out of the poor category from what I can gather from the Manchester summer index Kevin Bradshaw puts up. 

We all know that the Jet stream has been further south than usual for much of the past 6 years - It is that which delivered the amazing 6 week cold spell from November 2010 to almost the end of December 2010. That was a cold spell in a class of its own - It really was.

I have to add that I think the hardest part of weather forecasting for the longer term is based on how much information we can get wrt to the movement of the Jet stream. This is not fully understood. We have seen this summer that pattern matching doesn't work - There must be too many variables. I have never seen a spell of 14 months of really terrible weather suddenly change to a spell of decent weather almost in the space of a few days. Even this August is turning out to be very pleasant so far. It may not be hot - but it has not turned so far into one of those dreadful spells we saw so much of between 2007 and 2012 with 14s to 17s tempeature wise,  and grey and windy and wet.

So what can we say for autumn and winter. I am keeping out of the forecasts for this. I know some think that a cold winter is on the cards and I wouldn't be suprised if that was the case. We still have not seen a series of Bartlett Highs which are so characteristic of mild winters and these give the coldies a real headache. This summer has proved that it is still impossible to tell what is in store 6 months ahead or even sooner.

 

 

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Thanks Gavin.


Personally I don't know why you would be so surprised that it hasn't turned out as bad as some LRFs, unless you actually believe seasonal forecasts are worth the paper they are written on? Which they're not.

I don't think it was a "we" were expecting a poor summer. Personally I wasn't expecting one thing or another as there is no available tool to give you any semblance of an accurate idea.

The one thing you've learnt this summer is seasonal forecasts exist purely for something to read, for a laugh, when there's nothing else to do with your time.

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Well you're certainly right that your forecast for summer was completely wrong (albeit summer is not yet over). 

As for getting "stick" I think any criticism was the result of your repeated claims in June that any hint of poor weather prematurely vindicated your absolute conviction that this was going to be a poor, grotty and cold summer even before we had reached a third of the way through summer. 

As it was, for much of the country June wasn't great, but wasn't a complete disaster either (and certainly wasn't for the SE as a whole, though clearly wasn't great for parts of Kent).

Although June didn't have a memorable heatwave a la July, in my part of the world it was a vast improvement on the same month in 2012 and on quite a few Junes before that. This summer as a whole has certainly been far better than any we had in the period from 2007 up to and including last year. August has been fairly average so far but there are indications the models of a more settled last third of the month. If that comes off, this summer will have been more than decent in my view even if it isn't a classic overall like 1995. If someone had said three months ago that this summer's weather would follow the path that it has taken, most people would have been delighted I'm sure.

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Good thread Gavin.

June here on the SE coast of Kent was nowhere near as bad as was being portrayed.

Average temperature was 13.8c (-0.1c)

Sunshine totals were below average with 80% of the norm

Rainfall was only 13mm however (approx 25% of the long term average).

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June was "ok" with some warm days but July was fantastic - wore shorts and tshirts for over 3 weeks in a row, can't remember when that last happened! August so far has been like June in that it's been fairly benign with not much to write home about in either heat or wetness. Overall even if the rest of August is wet this Summer will still have been a massive improvement on the previous ones. 

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I was upbeat about the potential for this summer to be at least reasonable ever since I did my composite analysis way back in April. Looking at years that had similar Nov-Dec, Jan-Feb and March periods, the signal was for decent positive height anomalies across the mid-latitudes, with the potential for the Azores High to extend across the UK and out to the NE.

During the first half of June, the high pressure did just that, but at latitudes just a bit too high for temperatures to climb very far away from some western regions. The rest of June was more mixed and to be honest didn't really display much connection with the composite outlook.

July then rallied with a tremendous UK high, which was a variant of the theme depicted by those similar years. I must admit that I never envisioned anything quite so remarkable, but then it's not usually advisable to expect such extremes.

August seems to have seen the pattern flattened into a very benign zonal pattern. This differs to the composite outlook, which suggested that high pressure would shift north and form blocking well to our NE and N - leading to an unsettled month with the wettest weather in the south.

Overall, I'm pleased with how well the composite method has performed, given that it was entirely experimental and not entirely scientific in it's execution. What I did was to identify all the similar years to 2012 for Nov-Dec and then look at the Jan-Feb patterns from those chosen years to pick out which ones were similar to Jan-Feb 2013. In other words, the resulting selection had been similar across both of those two periods, even though in some cases the Nov-Feb anomalies differed. Then I narrowed things down further using the exceptional March of 2013, which proved to be a big deal, as it revealed a much clearer projection for the summer, even though the number of years was reduced to just a few.

Yes - it seems that the extraordinary March, either by itself or in combination with the two previous periods, in some way precluded the better summer pattern - particularly the combination of +ve mid-lat height anomalies and -ve polar height anomalies. Due to the small sample size, I can't say with much confidence whether this discovery is actually true of reality or just a statistical quirk, but it's fascinating nonetheless

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An excellent explanation there James - I'll save that and read it again. I need to do some more research on this type of thing.  

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Excellent analysis

This summer is definatly the best since 2006 and it felt great to feel real heat in July.After such a cold spring its been

pleasantly suprising.June in this part of the uk was as about as bang on average as you can get,except there was below

average rainfall. Maybe July was the turning point and the jet stream locating itself back to normal,only time will tell over

the next few months.Whatever happens there will be much discussion and it will be interesting

The main thing I've noticed with this summer is that even when it has been a bit unsettled it hasn't really felt cold other than June which had a cold wind at times).

 

But yes, further proof that LRFs are meaningless.

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Agreed, Dave.

 

Even though plenty of our SE'ern members haven't considered most of the last 6 summers to be as bad as us in the NW'ern quadrant have, these summers really have been utter gash, with the frequency of the rain and the persistent cool westerly being the killer.

This summer, though... great!

I guess everyone has their perceptions coloured by how the best weather synchs with key activities, and we've been really lucky. We had break in Devon at the end of May/beginning of June: warm, sunny & dry. The kids both managed to have their school sports days (after being rained-off 3 out of the last 4 years). Went down to see family friends in Cambridge on 6/7 for a BBQ & golf comp: hot, dry & sunny. We had a weekend in Caernarfon: hot, sunny & dry (was in the sea at 7pm on 20/7). Through this, we had the pool up in the garden and the kids would be in it after school every night and on weekends (and so would I several evenings, beer in hand!). We're off to the Lakes late next week for the BH weekend in a log cabin and, if the weather comes off like GFS is showing, we'll have struck lucky again, after a bit of a let-down couple of weeks.

Of course, in a summer like '76, the top weather lasts so long you can't miss timing your personal events with glorious sunshine, dryness and warmth/heat.

Current summer is an 8/10 for me. If it warms again and BH weekend is tops, then it'll go into a 9.

 

I do just want to say, though, that I was one of only afew voices of optimism in the summer predictions thread, although this summer has been better that I expected. My LRF is based completely on gut instinct.

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Indeed, it is true that this summer did take it's time in getting it's act together over here at this end of Kent, but to be fair this is really me speaking very much from a IMBY perspective. 
  It was only because of where I had experienced this persistent run of north-easterlies as high pressure often kept parking itself to the north west of us (the "wrong place"). Combine that with the sea surface having remained unusually cool thanks to that cold Spring, it is hardly a wonder how it stayed "fridge-like" fresh for longer thsn usual into the summer season. Looking back, the GFS model has often been correct with keeping temperatures in the teens over East Kent, even taking into account the resolution effect - that's why it is always my choice model when it comes to forecasting the temperatures over the UK for my Cloud Master forecast service.
  Doesn't help that Kent is a peninsula type landmass and I live right on the coastal edge so invariably my temperatures will always be influnced by the sea rather than the land. If for some reason I want to experience hot and humid conditions then I will need to move inland . . . or get back into being a tomato greenhouse worker!
  However, this summer hasn't been, or rather, isn't being a total write off as it finally did get going from the early part of July onwards and I found myself often being able to sit in the garden picking up a decent tan more often than not. I also got to experience a 30 C on the 1st August, along with having had a bit more luck in terms of stormy activity (that violent thunderstorm in the early hours of Tues 23rd July was something!). 
  At the end of the day, I do think that this summer won't be remembered in the same way as 1976, 1995, 2003 and 2006 - but like I said, this is very much a IMBY thing. Or where I've got more and more into meteorology over the years, perhaps my preceptions have changed with age?

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This summer has a very 1999 like feel to it with a very warm July sandwiched in between an unremarkable June and August.

I have to say that this summer is bordering on vintage territory for me. As the thread title is about perceptions I'd have to say that this was a good summer beyond what even the statistics might suggest.

I'll explain...

Others have mentioned the nagging easterly winds that characterised much of May and June in the SE and East. However my experience of that was generally grey cool mornings whilst waiting for my morning train, with the cloud burning off by lunch and largely sunny evenings, by which time I was in a position to enjoy it.

A similar pattern too over the given weeks. My memory of the early summer was that the best weather seem to fall reliably at the weekend. I'd be intrigued to know whether this is statistically borne out, but with loads of weekend activities with friends and the kids, I cannot remember a single one badly affected by the weather.

Add on too that it had been preceded by a winter cold that just went on and on, so that when warmer weather finally arrived everything in the countryside just sprang into exuberent, over-excited, (and pest free) growth.

...and then coming to July - which quite simply has been one of the most wonderful summer months I can remember. Not too hot for too long (although nudging 34C on three distinct  occasions in the south-east isn't to be sniffed at) and sunshine totals far beyond what even the temperatures might suggest. So a vintage summer (without the wasps). What's not to like? Now it's looking after a bit of a cruddy weekend, the high pressure's returning.

I'd say this is a 9/10 at the moment... well ok, 8/10 (probably the years without sunshine talking)

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Here here...!

...though I found the wasps on my recent camping holiday in Cornwall.

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Now we're well into the second/third week of August. I can add more to my views on this. As I've said before June was not good in my area at all. But that is not unusual in a good summer which this is now turning out to be. Many good summers have had a poor or iffy June. June 1995 being the best example of that.

Although August marked the end of the heatwave of July - things have most certainly not deteriorated much at all in my opinion.

Indeed some days this August have been absolutely wonderful with summer days straight out of the textbooks in terms of nice and useable and comfortable weather. I have had several days of 22s and 23s with light and soft wesrerly winds and light and scattered light cumulus clouds. These days have been inmo as near as perfect as you can get for summer.

If as seems likely this August delivers what is shaping up to be a nice warm to hot last week last 10 days or so - then I think this summer will very nearly join the top 10 if not top 15 good summers of the last 100 years.

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August here has had a rather average feel here. Some pleasantly warm days and a few cool and overcast days with slightly above average rainfall. An end of month warm spell would push it into thumbs up territory though.

Nice to see Kevin Bradshaw has updated his summer index and it now stands on 257.

 

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Yes August hasn't been bad, although the proper heat ended right at the beginning of the month it has generally been pleasantly warm with very little rain around. However it is next week's weather that will decide whether this summer is a classic for me: we've had two weekend camping trips with near-unbroken sunshine (one with a bonus thunderstorm thrown in) and if we can also get a reasonably warm and sunny week in Cornwall then I will be more than happy.

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August has been alright here, but I think it will end up being quite dull.

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Aye shaping up similar here - can't remember the last sunny day, been a while!

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We were doing OK for sun - we're sunnier than London this month so far, but this seems to have changed now - most days start off completely sunny, cloud bubbles up, hits a cap and then spreads out until it covers the entire sky. Very annoying.

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It's shaping up to be a very dry month here with the temperature about 1c above average and near average sunshine amounts.

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Some good points there, Gavin.

That's an interesting point you make about good summers in the past that started with a mediocre June. That month in 1995 wasn't great in the early part with a fair number of cool and cloudy (but mostly dry) days, although there were a smattering of warm and quite sunny days during that period as well. The first of that summer's big heatwaves really got going from about the 21st June where I live and was really to set the tone for much of July and August 1995.

The best example I can recall of a poor June being followed by much better weather in the following two months was 1990. We had some very wet weather early on that June and indeed, it was the only time I can remember in all my 13 years at school when my school sports day had to be postponed because of poor weather. The only time I can recall any warm weather in June 1990 was for a few days around the middle of the month. The weather during the summer of 1990 really improved just after the end of the Italia 90 World Cup in the second weekend of July, as I can remember quite a prolonged very warm/hot spell commencing in my area shortly after the World Cup finished and lasting until early August. Indeed, I have a cousin who was at the World Cup in Italy and I remember speaking to him shortly after he returned to Scotland, and by this time it was really pretty warm here. Indeed, I can clearly recall him saying to me "It's almost as hot here as it was in Italy when I was there".

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Been an interesting summer. It will generally be remembered favourably (especially given the preceding six summers) but in fact here it's been pretty average in terms of sunshine totals, which for me is the most important factor in how a summer feels. June came in at 86% of the average (Leuchars figures) and July, despite being warm, only saw 102% of average sunshine. August looks like it may not quite reach the average either (still a way to go though!).

I appreciate that elsewhere the sunshine figures will be considerably higher than normal but it's interesting that a summer that 'feels' as if it's been really quite good may end up being less sunny than the long term average! 

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