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GIBBY
05 August 2013 16:13:31




My rainfall forecast yesterday has been equally shambolic because I also went with the NAE.


GFS was much more dubious about this "event" all the way along. Wish I'd gone with GFS yesterday - Lesson learned.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Go with the NMM model. Much more accurate than the NAE.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Yeah but the GFS rainfall charts are not always right either so maybe its a case of using both Gav in future


The BBC precipitation forecasts of late have been poor but thats part of the useless graphics.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


The vast majority of people I've spoken to about the graphics haven't got a clue what they mean anyway and others don't give a toss so they can get away with a bad forecast without justification.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



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TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2013 16:25:55

Anyway the front got its act together in Manchester and it rained all afternoon. These are of course Met Office forecasts not BBC and some places did get a lot of rain today as forecast but not Manchester.

Gooner
05 August 2013 16:51:18

well they got the current conditions right, gone very dark and hammering it down


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Zubzero
05 August 2013 16:59:27




My rainfall forecast yesterday has been equally shambolic because I also went with the NAE.


GFS was much more dubious about this "event" all the way along. Wish I'd gone with GFS yesterday - Lesson learned.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Go with the NMM model. Much more accurate than the NAE.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Yeah but the GFS rainfall charts are not always right either so maybe its a case of using both Gav in future


The BBC precipitation forecasts of late have been poor but thats part of the useless graphics.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Ive seen the NMM be wrong a lot to, As I have every other weather model.


The Job of the forecaster should be use all available data and then use that + their knowledge and experience


to make the forecast. 

Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
05 August 2013 17:09:23
I don't think it's down to the graphics. The forecasts have just been wrong.
Retron
05 August 2013 17:23:32


Of course this may be partly due to the weird perspective on the BBC chart (which, incidently, is produced by NZ weather service Metraweather - not the BBC or the MetO)


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Software produced by the NZ company - the BBC have considerable scope in what elements they show and how they show them. For whatever reason (perhaps because it's "cool") they choose weird perspectives rather than the simpler top-down view (which is available and on rare occasions actually used).


The new system (well, not so new now) is just as crap as ever, I see. There's a reason the old symbol charts were widely used and that is you simply cannot be that accurate when it comes to convective stuff. It's a shame that pride got the better of BBC Weather as the old Weather 2000 graphics were better in every single way. There is actually nothing in the new system (bar some of the zooming effects) that couldn't be done in the old one, it just took a bit more work to prepare the charts. The old system had 15-minute radar, 3-hourly precip charts (same as the new one, but it fudges it to look like it's higher-res) and those lovely animated wind arrows... nothing better in winter than watching the deep blue arrows heading over the UK!


The old system was easy to modify (spreay-paint snow, anyone? ) and although the new one can be modified it rarely is in any significant way. 


There was simply no real reason to switch other than that someone somewhere thought it was cool.


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2013 06:35:44

Well, when one of the forecasters (Susan Powell, I think) said the other day "Don't take too much notice of the position of the blue blobs, you could get a shower anywhere", she may well have been correct but it makes you wonder if the choice of graphic display could be improved.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
06 August 2013 08:12:24

BBC forecasts. Pffff, I make my own forecasts using what's available on the net.






. . . And I still get it wrong.     


Folkestone Harbour. 
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 August 2013 11:23:50
And again this morning re The Oval. Complete ballsup. Even the nowcast was wrong from the forecaster on 5live this morning at 9am
NickR
22 August 2013 11:31:46
As doc's posts this summer have shown, it's not just in terms of ppn but temps too that they get it very wrong.

What most bemuses and annoys me is the failure to look out of the window. TO be told "it's dry" when it's raining is simply not excusable. I remember 3 yrs ago when everywhere was covered in snow at Christmas, it was about 2 or 3°C, the warmest for a while, and there was a steady but audible drip-drip... the BBC forecasters actually pointed to the NE and said tempteratures were below freezing and no sign of any thaw. This lack of using current observations is very, very poor.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
ARTzeman
22 August 2013 11:40:29

I hate it when they say it is going to be clear at  night and we end up with cloud drifting about...No good for watching the skies. telescope will only pick out the brighter stars.. I like to see them like diamonds on a net curtain... Bring on the frosts please...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Matty H
  • Matty H
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 August 2013 12:07:58

WEATHER UPDATE
BBC Weather's Nick Miller on TMS: "There was always the possibility that the overnight rain would cling on - unfortunately, that's what has happened. Looking at the radar, there's been a narrow stream of rain running across The Oval, but it's dry north and south of it. The persistent rain has eased a bit, there may be some gaps in it and some dryer spells, I can't rule out more light rain or even a few more showers in the afternoon. Tomorrow is still looking like a full day's play, but rain is forecast for Friday evening and the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for Saturday so it could be quite heavy. Sunday is looking drier though there may be showers in the vicinity."



Basically the complete opposite of what was said on TMS at 9am this morning. No mention of any possibility of the rain hanging on. Shambles.
bledur
22 August 2013 12:41:48

every time i watch bbc weather last few days they admit they dont know what it is going to do this weekend. if you are going on the telly stick your neck out and take the flak. bunch of slack jawed faggots.BigGrin

Super Cell
22 August 2013 12:44:14

The MetO forecasts have been poor, sometimes perversely so, for some time now. My recollection is that is all started around the time that (in my opinion) they completely ballsed up the red/amber warnings for the last significant snow event.


It does seem that on occasions, as has been said above, there is no feeed of live weather. The number of times we're told that it's doing 'this' in our area when it's doing 'that' is substantial.


Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
Gusty
22 August 2013 14:53:20

A yellow warning for some significant heavy rain on Saturday has been issued for quite a large swathe of eastern Britain. There is certainly enough 'punch' behind this one make people think twice about visiting coastal resorts, hence blighting tourism based on that.


This sounds terrible....


Outbreaks of rain affecting parts of England and Wales during Saturday are likely to turn heavy at times, with a risk a of local accumulations in excess of 40 mm. The public should be aware of possible localised surface water flooding where heaviest showers.

If the words 'potentially very warm in sunny spells in between the hit and miss heavy showers ' were used I would take my chances.


The warning they have issued is writing off the day for a large proportion of the country reading it at face value.


Let's see how this one pans out


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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LeedsLad123
22 August 2013 14:56:33

Poor temperature forecast today - reached 26C, the forecast was only for 22C.It's also been mostly sunny, despite the forecast of cloud amounts being quite high.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
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