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polarwind
31 August 2013 08:09:10

August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.


from -


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html


The reasons for this are explained, but, are these an indication of longer term global changes?

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Dave,Derby
Solar Cycles
31 August 2013 08:13:21


August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.


from -


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html


What are the reasons for this?


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

I was just commenting on this in the tropical storm thread PW. Whatever happened to those forecasts of increased frequency and strengths of storms I wonder. 

polarwind
31 August 2013 08:30:54



August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.


from -


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html


What are the reasons for this?


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I was just commenting on this in the tropical storm thread PW. Whatever happened to those forecasts of increased frequency and strengths of storms I wonder. 


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Sorry SC, just got back from a week away - am catching up.


However my thrust on this, is centred on the possible implications that this could be a sign of global synoptic changes associated with multi-decadal oceanic cycles.


I was hoping someone with much better knowledge than me, in this area, might give us some hurricane history set aside known oceanic cycle history.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Essan
31 August 2013 10:01:35



August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.


from -


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html


What are the reasons for this?


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I was just commenting on this in the tropical storm thread PW. Whatever happened to those forecasts of increased frequency and strengths of storms I wonder. 


Originally Posted by: polarwind 



Depends who you believe

Current suggestion from those amateurs at NOAA are that, although less frequent, tropical storms globally will, on average, become wetter and stronger.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

Obviously this is on a multi-decadal timeframe, and has no bearing at all on 4 weeks in the Atlantic


Whether the lack of Atlantic basic Tropical Storms so far this season is a consequence of GW or just 'weather' is, I think, too soon to say.   It does fit predictions.   But it's only one season, and certainly the big dust storm a few weeks back will be a major factor in the lack of TS development recently.

Which most will say is a good thing!

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

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Solar Cycles
31 August 2013 11:10:15




August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.


from -


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html


What are the reasons for this?


Originally Posted by: Essan 

I was just commenting on this in the tropical storm thread PW. Whatever happened to those forecasts of increased frequency and strengths of storms I wonder. 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



Depends who you believe

Current suggestion from those amateurs at NOAA are that, although less frequent, tropical storms globally will, on average, become wetter and stronger.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

Obviously this is on a multi-decadal timeframe, and has no bearing at all on 4 weeks in the Atlantic


Whether the lack of Atlantic basic Tropical Storms so far this season is a consequence of GW or just 'weather' is, I think, too soon to say.   It does fit predictions.   But it's only one season, and certainly the big dust storm a few weeks back will be a major factor in the lack of TS development recently.

Which most will say is a good thing!


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Well they made the same prediction quite a few years ago so that prediction can be ignored for now. I think PW assumption  is a valid one, whatever the causation.

Hungry Tiger
31 August 2013 13:57:04

I wonder what that means for autumn here.


 

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Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
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KevBrads1
31 August 2013 14:04:11
The first Atlantic hurricane for 2002 was Gustav

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Stormchaser
31 August 2013 18:37:21

Across the N. Hemisphere as a whole, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy has been meagre this year. It's strange because usually there's anomalously high activity in one or more regions to balance low activtity in others.


There's a lot of potential energy going unrealised at the moment, so if and when conditions become favourable for storms to develop (should be next week, apparently...), there could be some interesting implications.

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doctormog
01 September 2013 06:30:06

Across the N. Hemisphere as a whole, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy has been meagre this year. It's strange because usually there's anomalously high activity in one or more regions to balance low activtity in others.


There's a lot of potential energy going unrealised at the moment, so if and when conditions become favourable for storms to develop (should be next week, apparently...), there could be some interesting implications.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 



It's possible but it will take a lot of activity in the latter part of the season to match up with many of the pre-season forecasts.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
pdiddy
01 September 2013 06:59:26

From Big Joe on twatter, but, apologies,  I don't get his point - anyone?


"Why am I still worried about the hurricane season. Left.Sept 500 mb anomaly when majors have hit. Rt Ensemble 4 cast"


https://twitter.com/BigJoe******i/status/373751374908899328/photo/1

doctormog
01 September 2013 07:12:00

From Big Joe on twatter, but, apologies,  I don't get his point - anyone?


"Why am I still worried about the hurricane season. Left.Sept 500 mb anomaly when majors have hit. Rt Ensemble 4 cast"


https://twitter.com/BigJoe******i/status/373751374908899328/photo/1

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 



Sadly Google Translate doesn't do Joeish but I think he is referring to pressure/500hPatterns for the coming month being conducive to stronger cyclones hitting the US mainland. I guess it is possible but the evidence IMO is currently a little inconclusive.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 September 2013 08:40:27

On a longer view, I read that it's not simply the first absence of hurricanes in August for 11 years but also only the sixth time this has occurred since 1960, i.e. about once every ten years on average

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Jason H
01 September 2013 09:21:46


I wonder what that means for autumn here.


 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


Early start to winter this year. Snow more prevelant, coldest winter for some time I'd imagine. Where's the energy gone?

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nouska
01 September 2013 09:47:32
We know from scientific studies that solar cycle stage can be seen as an influence on some of the atmospheric processes. The fact that the last time activity was this low was the previous solar max - a connection or coincidence?
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