Tragic ECM run rolling out - really not liking that at all. It seems that although the Atlantic reaches down to the trough across the UK, it hasn't got enough strength to lift all of it out.

It's a particularly cruel run, worse even than GFS' solution as the remnant low manages to drift back west due to a breif ridge building over the top of it. Hopefully it's taking things way too far!

On the other hand, the synoptics really remind me of later on in June, and we all know what followed

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM from the midday runs for today Thursday September 5th 2013.

All models show a cold front across the UK reinvigorating itself in the next 12 hours as it moves across Eastern Britain. A Low pressure area is shown to form near SE England and move itself NW across the UK over the weekend with a cocktail of troughs and areas of cloud and showers affecting many places. By early next week the Low has moved up to the NW and become a trough which is shown to swing East on Monday with a band of heavy showers for all and followed on Tuesday with a period of cool NW winds and rising pressure as showers decay away from the West.

GFS then shows winds backing Westerly through next week with some troughs making there way across Britain at times. Some rain is possible at times as a result but with a fair amount of dry and bright weather in the South. Through the following week the weather settles down for a time as High pressure crosses East over the UK and on into Europe giving several days of warm and sunny weather. The weather slides downhill again later with some showery rain making it's way in from the SW at times in a light SE wind.

The GFS Ensembles show a sharp cool off in uppers in the upcoming hours with these values maintained well into next week before a gradual return to average values return later in the run. The operational was a warm outlier at times later in Scotland. rain is projected at times throughout the output but with no big quantities overall.

The Jet Stream shows an off shoot from the Jet flow to the NW circulating the newly formed Low over SE England. in the next few days. The main core of the Jet to the NW absorbs this feature early next week with a more direct West to East flow across the North of the UK later in the output.

UKMO tonight shows a cool NW flow around a High pressure close to the SW next Wednesday. the North sees winds backing Westerly with moister Atlantic air moving in later with increasing cloud.

GEM shows a ridge of High pressure building in from the SW early next week with a fine and bright spell for a time. Later in the run the weather deteriorates steadily from the North with outbreaks of rain and showers moving in from the NW with very much cooler air for all and strong NW winds. It may even be cold enough for the first wintry showers over the top of Scottish mountains should it verify.

NAVGEM maintains its theme of holding Low pressure close to Southern Britain next week with showers or outbreaks of rain across the UK at times with some drier and brighter spells most likely in the North.

ECM tonight has taken a more unsettled turn tonight with Low pressure holding close to the UK for the next week with showers or outbreaks of rain at times with the earlier ridge of High pressure holding further out into the Atlantic for longer eventually reaching the UK next Thursday with drier and brighter weather for all then. The end of the run shows hints of a GEM type conclusion of very cool North Atlantic winds moving down from the NW in the days that follow with rain and showers in abundance. 

In Summary we keep the trend of High pressure building in from the SW early next week. However, there is some disagreement between the models with ECM and NAVGEM bucking the trend with continued showery and cool weather lasting rather longer into next week and GFS looking a little half hearted in this theme tonight too. It looks we may have seen the last day of temperatures breaching 26C (80F) for this season with the expected North or NW component to the winds shown tonight making sure such figures won't be reached in the coming week or so.

No posts since 7pm last night?  nothing much happening or have I missed a new thread somewhere?

What about ECM for 15th - 16th.....Both showing green over UK

Hi everyone. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 6th  2013.

All models with the exception of NAVGEM and the outer reliable limits of ECM have changed somewhat today. Gone is the extensive build of pressure for the UK next week and in it's place is the reluctance to clear this weekends Low away East early in the week maintaining cloud and showers in much cooler conditions than of late for all for much of next week.

The Fax Charts today illustrate a cool and unsettled period to come. With winds shown mostly from a Northerly source it will feel much cooler than of late with troughs scattered around the British Isles ensuring all areas see at least some rain at times.

GFS shows Low pressure stuck out in the North Sea from Tuesday until Thursday of next week with cool Northerly winds and rain or showers in the East and more scattered showers but still cool conditions in the West. By the end of the week further Low pressure slips down from the NW keeping things cool and unsettled next weekend too in NW winds. It's only from 10 days out High pressure develops a foothold over the UK with fine , dry and warmer weather developing by day with foggy nights likely.

The GFS Ensembles show an extended cooler phase of weather now with rain at times with some recovery in uppers to more normal levels in the South late in the run as High pressure comes back on to the scene especially in the South drying things up here.

The Jet Stream shows a trough developing over the UK, one that is maintained in some form or another for the next week or so before the flow returns North of Scotland at the edge of reality.

UKMO today shows a showery trough close to SE England next Thursday with a developing Westerly flow over the North. Showers in the SE will be joined by increasing cloud and occasional rain on a westerly breeze in more northern and NW parts late in the week.

GEM does show a ridge moving across the UK from the West midweek tempering down the shower risk for a time but Westerly and then SW winds strengthen markedly as the remains of an ex-tropical depression and attendant pool of warm moist air winds up a powerful depression close to NW Scotland late in the run with the first real Autumn gales battering the North and West with heavy rain to boot to in places especially across the North and West.

NAVGEM show no such drama as it maintains it's recent theme of holding Low pressure close to Southern Britain next week with Easterly winds and thundery showers the most likely weather for the South. High pressure ridged across the North is shown to extend further South by the end of next week with fine and settled conditions for all shown by then.

ECM looks quite unsettled this morning with a slow moving Low to the East of the UK next week with rain and showers spinning South at times over the UK followed by reinforcements from the NW later on ending with a complex Low pressure area or trough across the UK with further rain or showers at times for all in temperatures close to average at best.

In Summary the embryonic downturn hinted at last night in next weeks prospects have gathered some pace this morning. We have GFS, UKMO and ECM all looking like holding Low pressure close to the East well into the middle and end of next week with the door open for reinforcements to move down from the NW by next weekend as GFS and ECM both highlight. GEM does give a 'batten down the hatches' type scenario next weekend as the remains of an ex-tropical storm gets caught up in the flow to the NW and that would mean very autumnal conditions for many. It's only NAVGEM and GFS in FI that bring some balance to the argument with fine and bright weather on offer in 10 days time as High pressure builds back over the UK  from differing evolutions. So all in all still a lot of uncertainty in the mid to long term with some of the output beginning to look distinctly Autumnal if not always for the British Isles for the Northern hemisphere in general.

Thank You Martin..

Could be a warning there for 15th/16th...

A cool and very changeable week ahead with showers or longer spells of rain never far away.

Based on recent experience it'll be rather dry here

Here's todays video update;

September/October Look-Ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Thinking October might get off the a settled start.

Cheers Gav

Good evening. Here is the report from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 6th 2013.

The models tonight show the pendulum has swung back the other way from this morning's output with High pressure tonight showing a more dominant role again in the weather next week, albeit not in the best position for overly warm conditions. Before any ridge approaches from the West we have three or four days of unsettled and showery weather which only slowly leaves Easternmost Britain towards midweek.

GFS shows the ridge toppling SE over Britain midweek followed by a trough on Friday when some rain would be experienced by all for a time. High pressure then is shown to quickly re-establish itself for a time at the weekend before a more changeable pattern under the familiar North/South pattern develops in Week 2.

The GFS Ensembles show a fairly mundane pattern over the next few weeks with some rain in near average temperatures likely and temperatures gradually returning to the seasonal average. The operational was a strong warm outlier at one point in the second half of the run in the South.

The Jet Stream shows a sharp troughing over the UK currently which continues for a few days before the flow reverts to a position near Northern Scotland for the folloeing week with an unclear pattern thereafter.

UKMO tonight shows a ridge toppling SE over the UK towards midweek with a fine few days following the early week showers. A cold front is shown descending SE over the UK by Friday with some rain accompanying it.

GEM is much more High pressure based tonight with a ridge extending across Britain from midweek and just the briefest of interruption from weak fronts as they trundle SE with a little rain towards the end of the week. near normal temperatures seem likely.

NAVGEM tonight is opposed to it's own run of this morning with Low pressure hanging around SE England quite a while next week and drawing in reinforcements from the NW later with an unsettled end to the run for all with rain at times.

ECM tonight shows High pressure to the SW holding much more dominance in conditions over Southern Britain  later next week with a North/South split in the weather seeming likely. So after early week showers almost anywhere rainfall will gradually become confined to Northern areas later in the week with average temperatures for all and rather breezy conditions in the North.

In Summary the models continue to struggle with the course of events from the middle of next week. We have see-sawing model runs illustrating differences run to run and it is still very unclear as to whether later next week sees rain at times under the Atlantic Low influence or fine and drier conditions under a ridge from our own friend the Azores High.

So that was a 36 hour walk in one big circle. GFS, ECM and UKMO all resemble their 00z outputs from yesterday.

Even the England football side are more reliable than the climate forecasting models at the moment

Can always tell when we are in Topsy Turvy Land of the weather models, very little action on here and the beeb's weather only

gives a forecast for a few days in advance i.e till Sunday

QI- Nobody knows! ;)

seems like that at the moment.

High Pressure really starting to dominate later on

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

GFS has it too

Hi everyone. Here is the morning look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday September 7th 2013.

All models continue the basic pattern of high pressure to the SW and a West or NW flow over the UK in the coming week. The current shallow depression over NW Britain will simplify into a trough by Monday which crosses the UK with a cool and somewhat showery North flow in its wake down the East side of England dissipating by Wednesday. As mentioned High pressure to the SW will then dominate for the remainder of the week to varying degrees between the models. All show a West ot NW flow with a mix between a North/South split pattern where the North sees the biggest share of rain bearing troughs crossing East and SE while ECM in particular brings that risk down into Southern areas too at times in temperatures close to average.

The Fax Charts show the complex and weak Low pressure areas around the UK simplifying to a main centre to the East of the UK by Monday and Tuesday with a cool North flow and rain near the east Coast. Elsewhere High pressure is shown to be nosing it's way into the UK from the SW in turn followed by a warm and moist SW flow reaching the NW around midweek.

GFS then brings a series of weak troughs across from the West next weekend and the start of the following week with some rain for all but probably not much in the South. High pressure then builds across the UK in the final third of the run with warm and sunny days alternating with cool, mist and potentially foggy nights.

The GFS Ensembles show a slow trend away from the cool uppers at present to levels more usual for September. There is occasional rain events sprinkled about throughout the output for almost all areas though much of it is small in amount or insignificant as High pressure remains not far away from the UK at times.

The Jet Stream shows a detached circulation cut off from the main flow around the UK for several days to come. The trend for the later part of the run sees the flow migrating further to the Northwest again indicative of GFS's show of High pressure close to Britain late in the run.

UKMO today shows a cold front sliding SE over Britain on Friday with a band of cloud and light rain on it. High pressure lies either side of this feature and as a result dry weather will soon follow the rain for the weekend.

GEM also shows a couple of weakish cold fronts sliding SE next weekend and beyond but with High pressure to the SW continuing to squeeze the life out of them and delivering no more than brief passages of light rain and drizzle as they pass between lengthy spells of fine and dry weather in between.

NAVGEM shows slightly more potency to the Atlantic West or NW feed next weekend as a cold front brings some rain SE across all areas. A cool and potentially showery NW airflow is then shown to end the run.

ECM today shows an unstable NW feed across the UK by the end of next week and the weekend with  weak trough clearing the South with a little rain followed by a strengthening and cool NW flow with rain at times principally in the North but extending down to the South at times too. 

In Summary today there is still a lot of uncertainty between the detail of events from the middle of next week. though the theme of high pressure to the SW is a popular theme this morning the detail on how much it will affect the UK weather late in the week and beyond is still open for debate. GFS goes all out in bringing High pressure back over the UK late in it's run though it was a warm outlier later on. UKMO and GEM are in the middle ground this morning offering a few weak fronts crossing East over Britain with a lot of dry weather in between and at the other end of the scale we have NAVGEM and ECM who bring a steadily more potent feed of NW wind and rain at times, possibly for all by 10 days time. This story has a few days to run yet I feel until the exact route and path of the current showery Low pressure on its exit route out of the UK is known for definite.

Thank You Martin.

We just have to take it as it comes...Very seasonal ...

Thank you Martin Topsy Turvy weather

Looks like the Azores high doesn't want to leave. Remaining dry for many of us and it bodes well for a less cold winter. 

a long way to winter RC but given the absence of the AH through the years that gave a cold winter, i can understand your thoughts this year, now that the AH seems keener to ridge in. maybe you can counterbalance the ridging AH with the diving trough. another theme of this  past period and one which will help winter snow events.

impressive week 2 high anomoly continues on naefs but its struggling to get closer than post T336. the reading, given the timescale, surely cannot be ignored though.  looking at ecm graph for london, there is no sign of anything particularly unsettled with precip totals continuing to be subdued out to day 14.