With LP establishing close to S.England towards the end of this week we are likely to see a good chance of thundery activity, either homegrown or imported.

Interestingly, the soundings for Herstmonceux for Thursday at 1700z show 930 CAPE and instability from 5K to 33K feet which is encouraging

Nice one Dave.

This could come in handy in the next few days.

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End of the week does look good for the Southern half of England. Would be a great way to sign off a lovely summer.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Weclome rain.

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I've noticed there is no mentioned whatsoever of thunder in the Met Office forecasts for the rest of this week.

Plenty of frontal rain possible over the latter part of the week and weekend, but I agree that the signals for thundery activity don't appear to be there as far as energy and instability are being modelled at the moment. Could still change ofc.

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

A watch out from the Met/o for heavy rain and flooding Friday and Saturday.

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Chance of isolated thundery showers ahead of the main frontal zone in the SE and EA tomorrow afternoon given the progged temperatures.

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A pity it doesn't really look like this warm spell will be ending in style with proper thundery weather - just merely a transition to dull and wet conditions over the next 24 hours.

What a waste of all that heat over the South East.  

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To add to Ben's post above, WRF in particular quite keen to develop isolated storms in Norfolk and Lincolnshire later today in the pre-frontal heat mass.
For the weekend, greatest ppn totals appear to be focussed across the Northwest and N Wales, with some areas seeing 50mm potentially as the low slowly winds down and retrogresses NNW.

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Jesus hell Lincolnshire  again !!!!! .hows about the home counties for a change

Been trawling various data and forecasts this morning. The formation of a cut-off LP in association with the advancing CF looks nailed on with heavy rain developing overnight. Forecasts seem to suggest areas just N of London will get any pre-frontal heat storms later today but the this more organised rain could well deliver a good downpour here overnight which is much needed. The automated BBC forecast also suggest thunderstorms here late tomorrow and into the overnight period, presumably under the slack LP environment and falling uppers which is encouraging

The frontal boundary remains mainly rain-free at present but the sat loops are interesting as it shows the whole thing as quasi-static in terms of eastward advancement. Meanwhile, thundery weather over Spain is being drawn into and along the feature down there, eventually heading NNE. Tonight should be interesting to see how the rain develops over the UK 

Isolated thunderstorm broken out over Norfolk

That storm looks pretty potent looking at the returns. Almost a direct hit on Norwich

Just started delivering at Morrisons in Basingstoke at 3am. Minutes later had a free drops of rain then massive drops. Got very wet!!!

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http://estofex.org/

Got a Lvl 1 for the western regions of England, the whole of Wales and the eastern half of N. Ireland today

"... Ireland, Scotland and UK ...

The major upper low drops south and moves over SSTs, which increase from 14°C to 18°C from N to S. Therefore the main convective activity is expected over offshore and coastal areas of Ireland and W-UK, where LL CAPE increases during the forecast. Some signals of enhanced coastal convergence and low LCLs increase the chance for a few funnel and waterspout events.
Mixed signals are present for the Irish Sea during the evening and overnight hours. Wrap-around moisture enters the scene and moves beneath the center of the cold-core low. An increase in CAPE is forecast. However, strengthening frontogenesis might produce a shield of more stratiform rain with embedded convection, affecting parts of the Irish Sea, N-UK and NE Ireland. Also, increasing 15-20 m/s LL winds are more in line with an increasing risk for LL rotation and therefore mesocyclonic tornado activity. Current thinking is that a healthy deformation band will set up north of the surface depression with increasing CAPE supporting enhanced and embedded convection. Heavy to excessive rain will be the main hazard, but an isolated tornado risk offshore/along the coast of the Irish Sea can't be ruled out as well."

I can see some decent clear skies out to the west on the satellite imagery, so some reasonable solar forcing looks possible on top of the above - with any luck that might raise surface temps to near 20°C in places

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Things electrifying over Cornwall, small cell just leaving Brittany and appears to be intensifying, local forecasts going for thunderstorms especially for tomorrow morning.

Whoa, thunderstorm in progress. Rain rate 25.0mm/hr.

Just heard a rumble of thunder East of Frome town, not too far away by the sound of it.

Into the storm season now with the joys of the English Channel in autumn. Risk of storms tonight in Southern coastal counties and hopefully here although the risk is not huge

Hailstorm in Falmouth this afternoon

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-23997585

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=232704143550240&set=a.136967756457213.31253.136117933208862&type=1&theater

It's interesting reading the comments under that; the number of people who don't believe that could be today, or that such weather is possible is quite surprising! And this is people who are interested enough in the weather to like the page on which it was published.

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I can see flashes of lightning in the distance to the west, raining here now so hope to see a bit overhead.