I think you are onto something there, as I think troughs may dig down now and then allowing for some cold weather, but far too early to even begin to guess. Like you say, what does look certain is a continuation of these dry relatively settled conditions, which will do me.

Over the past year or so, that ridging from the Azores has tended to interchange with blocking to our NE, often with a hybrid setup at some point in between. Perhaps, then, the potential for a less cold winter is counterbalanced by some potential for a very cold winter. Whatever... I can't really see much reason to call it one way over the other at this stage.

 

Anyway... getting back on topic, and it seems that it's not really possible to depend on much at all at the 4-7 day range, as the models all vary in how energetic the Atlantic is and how much of that energy goes NE or SE. There doesn't even appear to be the usual relationship of 'weaker jet, more energy going SE' in place, with ECM being among the most vigorous runs yet sending more energy SE than GFS and UKMO.

To be honest, I'm growing rather weary of this constant model flailing Right now it seems like the CET could finish anywhere between 13 and 16°C given the mixed signals being thrown at us - just look at GFS' FI, which delivers a very warm and persistent setup, and contrast that with ECM's at times rather chilly and unstable NW regime.

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Hi everyone. Running very late tonight preparing for a busy day with my craftwork tomorrow so here's a lightning stop your of the output tonight taken from the 12 noon outputs of the regular five.

All models are still very confident on the course of events over the next 3-4 days but less so beyond that. The current showery conditions within which many areas are fairing far better than was expected is shown to continue over the next few days though it seems less likely that tomorrow will see as many places avoid the showers entirely. By early in the week the trough lies to the East with showers concentrated here while Western areas stay rather drier and brighter if never overly warm.

GFS then shows a ridge collapsing SE over the UK on Wednesday followed by a rain bearing trough also moving SE over all parts towards the end of the working week. Following that another ridge builds across England and Wales for a day or so before a mild and moist Westerly flow develops with rain and drizzle over Northern and Western hills and coasts. Then through most of FI with the exception of the odd day or two when the odd trough sneaks over the UK the weather becomes dominated by High pressure always close to the South and for a time to other areas too when war and settled conditions develop widely for a time.

The GFS Ensembles show a slow rise in uppers over the next few weeks towards or just above the seasonal average. There seems no reason why these warmer than average temperatures should not be reflected near the surface given that winds are often quite light and from a warm source. Rainfall amounts look quite benign over the period with almost all seeing some at one point or another but never anything dramatic.

The Jet Stream shows the core of flow around the UK Low at present slowly simplifying as the trough weakens and slides East next week. It then moves to a more regular West to East pattern near to Northern Scotland, perhaps turning more WNW to ESE later.

UKMO tonight closes it's run with a weak cold front clearing Southern England taking it's cloud and light rain away with it as a ridge builds back in from the SW for a time thereafter.

GEM shows a couple of occasions when weak troughs cross the UK from the NW with a little rain in places, each time replaced by a new extension of the Azores High over the UK.

NAVGEM refuses to let go of it's notion to maintain Low pressure close to the East Coast slipping South then West along the English Channel where it reinvigorates into a showery Low affecting the South while the North and west all this time see a lot of dry and bright if not sunny weather.

ECM tonight looks a lot like UKMO with a few weak troughs moving SE across the UK followed by renewed High pressure ridging in from the West over the latter stages of next week and weekend. So dry and fine for much of the time with short-lived bands of light rain crossing the UK in average temperatures. Things do show signs of settling down more meaningfully late in the run as High pressure builds over the UK from the West.

In Summary the weather over the UK is still far from clear cut as we move through next week. High pressure remains permanently locked down in the SW, close enough to snub the life out of fronts moving SE over the UK next week but not close enough to bring us back properly into fine and sunny weather with rather benign conditions the most likely outcome for much of the time.

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Thanks as always Martin

Overall, it's a more promising set of op runs this evening, with ECM taking less energy SE in the shorter term and GFS also edging in that direction a little. UKMO continues to be the most promising with it's output 

Longer term, there's a persistent signal from GEFS for a notably warm spell. The last time we saw this kind of consistency for several days, it got put back by a week or so but eventually verified to some extent... as that very fine spell in July

With hints from ECM's 12z op run today, we might be bringing that a little bit closer to reality now... but I can still see any protracted fine and warm spell being anything from 10 to 16 days away.

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Fixed that for you.

Mean highs in the high teens down here doesn't count as a notably warm spell for mid-September in my book at least.

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

In July the big difference is that the warmth was reflected in the 2M temperature charts as well, but this time it isn't. Until it is, if you're a heat fan I'd urge you not to get too carried away!

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Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs for the UK from the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday September 8th 2013.

The General Situation. The UK lies in a slack Westerly flow with Low pressure over Northwest Britain. Through today and tomorrow this transfers East and weakens as a trough swings East over England and Wales with showers, heavy and thundery in places. Through the early days of the week the weather will become largely dry in the West bt with a few more showers in the East as Low pressure lurks over the low Countries for a time. It will be quite cool especially by night and under the showers. Ny midweek a ridge covers the UK before a weak cold front crosses SE later with some occasional light rain for a time before the end of the week looks like the weather will become dry again with the ridge from the SW re-establishing itself again, especially across the South.

The Fax Charts show a complex and showery Low pressure area simplifying over the next 24 hours or so as the whole system pushes bodily South and East to take most of the showers away with it. Things are shown to take longer to dry up in the extreme east before a ridge topples over the UK midweek and in turn followed by a series of weak fronts over the latter half of the working week turning things more cloudy with some drizzly rain for a time in cloudy and quite chilly feeling West to NW winds.

GFS then shows a spell of rather cloudy West to NW winds over the UK lasting several days with the North most at risk of occasional rain as weak troughs pass by. the South would maintain a lot of cloud with only limited brightness but little if any rain in temperatures close to average. This pattern persists for a time before High pressure to the South slides East and leads to a more definitive trough to move West to East over the UK later with some showery rain for all before High pressure builds back close to the West once more to end the run with any remaining showers limited to the extreme East under a cool Northerly breeze while elsewhere becomes dry and fine but cool especially at night.

The GFS Ensembles show a good consensus of agreement over the next 5 days or so before the spread between members becomes quite large. The general message though is that the greatest risk of rain is reserved for the north with the South seeing very little and just occasionally. The operational was a warm outlier in the South yet again with temperatures overall trending close to average for mid September.

The Jet Stream shows the flow troughed down over the UK at present which weakens steadily over the coming days as the Jet flow re-establishes itself flowing West to East over or to the North of Scotland in response to the Azores High ridging NE to Britain.

UKMO today shows the Azores High elongated towards the UK early next weekend with a mostly dry week ahead interrupted by a brief cold front giving a little rain over the UK for a time before fine and dry conditions look like returning again in time for next weekend.

GEM today shows a West to NW flow too with a cold front clearing SE early next weekend. Thereafter the North would see the main share of further rain from further injections of Atlantic low pressure which does extend further South at times but on the whole the South and SW would continue to see the best chance of staying largely dry and at times bright.

NAVGEM finally joins the suite too finally giving up the idea of the Low hanging around to the South this week in preference of a cold front moving SE at the start of the weekend then setting up a fresh NW flow with a lot of cloud but only a little rain this chiefly in the North.

ECM is quite similar but does show a more vigorous Westerly flow developing later next weekend as a deep Low moves East to the North. So after a benign weak with just a little rain on a cold front towards the weekend the weather will turn windier and wetter in the North for a time before fine weather returns yet again behind another  weakening cold front moving SE giving just a little rain to the South ahead of another ridge from the Azores High. 

In Summary it looks like another period when the Azores High is going to continue to rule the roost as regards the weather over the UK with any attempts to bring more unsettled weather down from the NW rather weak and reserved mostly for the North. With winds from the West or NW for much of the time and given it is now September temperatures are unlikely to be much if any above average but with no cold air to tap into conditions would be workable for many though cloud amounts look likely to be large at times. So after today's and tomorrows potential sharp showers things turn benign for the foreseeable future with little interesting synoptics to talk about currently.

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Thank you Martin.

Looks dry for our neck of the woods for a little while longer...

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I see what you  mean - for example, there are a fair number of runs with TM airflows delivering mild nights but days no warmer than average. Then there's probably some runs with mist and fog holding temps back. I was led a bit by the operational run in terms of what I envisioned at the surface! That said, I never said anything about a heatwave... though I may have implied one by bringing up the July fine spell - didn't think of that at the time.

There's a signal for warmer than average overall, and that'll do for me even if the nights play more of a role than the days (though obviously I'd rather it was the other way around, with cool nights for deep sleeping).

This morning's charts haven't really brought the ridge from the SW much closer to reality, if at all - this highlights my suspicions from yesterday that we could be waiting as long as half a month before we see any protracted fine spell across a large part of the UK.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-702.png?18 

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That high has got to move in much more than that from the west. I know what you mean though.

 

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Hi folks. Had a busy day at a Craft Fair and only just got in so no time for my report tonight but I will give you a more detailed report on the 00zs in the morning.

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If anybody wants to see my quick run-down on the 12z models, check it out here;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

Going by tonight's models I'm starting to think we may be on course for another colder than average month in 2013?

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The signal for the Azores High to displace across the UK in the longer term remains, with mild southwesterlies keeping temperatures up. So at this stage, it's in the balance.

...but if we lose that signal - which is at long range and so far from something anyone can bank on - then the game's up and it could end up a chilly month overall.

From my point of view, I'm glad to see some higher diurnal means now looking likely for Thursday through to the following Sunday or Monday, although going by GFS it's only near average for the most part.

Beyond that, all I can do is hope.

 

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Hi everyone. here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday September 9th 2013.

All models show a trough of Low pressure easing away slowly to the east of the UK today gradually taking it's rain and heavy showers away East with it. Through tonight and tomorrow Low pressure over Europe is shown to be close enough to Eastern Coastal Counties for cool and cloudy conditions with some rain while Western Britain become largely dry with some bright spells. The West and North will be largely dry, bright but a little cool. Through the remainder of the week a NW flow is shown with occasional fronts moving SE at times giving some rain at times for many though no large amounts look likely especially in the South. nevertheless fronts may well get hung up over the South at times hindering the clearance of rain here prior to the weekend.

The Fax Charts show Low pressure off to the East at first this week before a ridge collapses SE on Wednesday followed by a complex array of fronts straddling the UK later in the week slow to clear the south at the start of the weekend.

GFS then moves forward showing a NW flow over the weekend with fronts continuing to bring light rain at times before a clearance from the NW behind a cold front brings cool and breezy weather at the start of next week with showers in the North and East. Thereafter Autumnal High pressure builds over the UK with a sustained period of bright days with sunny spells and average temperatures with some very cool and potentially foggy nights and even a touch of frost in prone locations.

The GFS Ensembles look somewhat cooler than since I last reported and show a lot of spread between members North and South indicating some uncertainty of conditions. There is no great amounts of precipitation shown overall indicating High pressure quite close by to most areas with it's positioning crucial to the type of conditions felt and experienced at the surface.

The Jet Stream currently passing SE over the UK weakens over the coming days and reverts to its course West to East just to the North or over the North of the UK for some time from later this week.

UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure over the South on Saturday slipping away South on Sunday as a cloudier and moister SW flow of winds over the North move South to all areas by the start of next week with some rain in the North.

GEM has a cold front slow to clear the South at the start of the weekend with some rain while the North has a dry and bright interlude with sunny spells. Through the weekend a more unsettled spell for all is shown to translate SE across the UK with strong winds and outbreaks of rain followed by sunshine and showers in a blustery and cool NW wind before conditions relax down again from the West at the end of the run.

NAVGEM today shows quieter conditions with outbreaks of rain at times though not much in the South as weak troughs alternate with ridges across the UK through the period. Temperatures would be held close to average during the brighter spells with winds biased towards a NW point.

ECM shows an indifferent weekend with a more unsettled spell developing at the start of next week as Low pressure crosses East then SE to the North of the UK. Winds will become strong and cold from the NW then North as rain clears to sunshine and squally showers with distinct Autumnal conditions felt by all but more especially to the North and East.

In Summary the weather is looking like becoming more Autumnal after a rather benign week this week when just occasional light rain alternates with periods of mostly dry and bright weather with temperatures close to average. Winds then look like increasing later in the weekend with some rain and showers then expected for all with a cool and blustery NW or even North wind possible as we look towards next week. There isn't 100% certainty of this evolution yet though with some output suggesting a more gentle period of September weather similar to that expected this week. So as has been the case so often of late the mid to long term output remains elusive with no maintained and sustained trend apparent yet hence such a wide spread between members such as those shown by the GFS Ensembles.

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Thank You Martin..

Maybe some rain Friday for us.Will be good for the average temperatures..We can settle down as well..

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I would ague the weather is already in an autumnal mood and its looks set to stay that way with the risk of gales and heavy rain in FI if its to be believed.

Warming up though close to average on Wednesday and Thursday for a time though.

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Im just sat here on the beach in corfu, 31c and crystal clear skies,
For the last week I have been keeping a watch over the ECM only and has gradually showing more and more positive signals for heights to build north in the atlantic towards southern greenland,
This happened around 10 days ago for last weekend but eventually the wave was quite low amplitude, something more inline with summer, however this second attempt may result in more amplification this time - and could even see the first north/ north west flow of the year ushering in the 0c isotherm. Maybe just maybe in the most amplified solution even the -2 line-

Either way something autumnal on the cards as the polar heights seem to be building in september once again


S

At 180h that -5 isotherm is getting awfully close for comfort: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130909/06/192/h850t850eu.png

Those NWerly winds on the other side of that depression are going to feel pretty autuminal. 

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Steve M is posting again, which means the season of winter madness on the weather forums must be close

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closely followed by Quantum Just need YD for a full set

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

Looking Cool And Unsettled For Mid September

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking really very autumnal indeed.

 

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This morning's ECM almost had me throwing up - that sort of thing is two months ahead of when I'd like to see it, and half a month ahead of when I've long suspected it would first make itself known.

No luck at all being had with the conditions later this week either - sure, we import some milder air, but it remains changeable with milder nights being the only real change for a fair number of us.

The change from what the models were offering at the start of the month has been a tough one to grin and bear - feeling rather miserable today, though a fair part of the blame goes to me having a bit of a cold bug as well.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130909/12/120/h850t850eu.png

Watching the 12z GFS op roll out, I'm willing the energy to be less keen on diving SE. For that, the jet needs to be a bit slower, with the trough developing further upstream and amplifying a ridge in our direction.

Really could do with a bit of luck there - a challenging time for me now as I prepare to take on a Masters in Meteorology at Reading University.

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Having said all that, I must admit that the storm being modelled for around 16th September does look like an exciting event, possibly delivering one of the most ferocious North Sea Gales in a long time.

Just give me a nice strong ridge and warm airflow afterwards

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Very Autumnal

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The Met/o heads down a wet and windy route to.

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm1441.gif

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