You have been predicting that for almost a month now and its not really begun to happen until early next week. Enjoy your holiday. 

impressive early depth of cold at Greenland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1

-5C isotherm comes within toaching distance of shetland.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130910/06/171/h850t850eu.png

With -2C -  -4C 850s over most of central scotland sleetiness may get down even to 600m in heavier showers. Could see some early cover for cairngorm and anoch mor. 

You'll soon learn that it's just his way, and anyway he won't be disheartened by that sort of criticism

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Cold Northerly Winds Early Next Week

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Think the GFS is probably over-doing things, but ECM and GEM paint a cool and changeable picture.

Thanks Gav

Is that Hurricane Humberto that GFS has reaching us in FI?

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1442.png

Autumnal from the big 3.

Certainly is Duane, quite a chilly feel

Where abouts in Corfu Steve? going there myself in 11 days time so hoping that a UK High doesnt form as this often allows low pressure into the Eastern Med.

Save some sun for me mate!

Andy

Spied the troublemaker tonight - it's the LP running through Iceland in 2 days time, namely what happens to it's energy as it decays in 4-5 days time. The runs which allow it to retain more energy for longer have the effect of pulling the incoming and strong storm system more to the NE - on the 12z op runs it's GFS, GEM and BOM which do this - whereas the runs which break the trough down faster see the strong storm tracking more to the SE.

The SE option shown by ECM and UKMO tonight is pretty much the worst evolution I can think of, so they can stick those runs where the sun don't shine

That one constant between the model runs remains though; heights rising massively to our NE and later E. That looks like one of those major hemispheric events that can be hard to shift. Shame it looks likely to only bring benefits for the final third of the month and that's if we're lucky... though arguably we'll be due a bit of luck after early next week!

Bloody hell

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130910/12/186/h850t850eu.png

This could have me posting in here regularly in SEPTEMBER?! 

ECM fi is cool and wet especially, in the east.

http://wwww.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Recm2162.gif

As an example.

Good evening. Here is the report on the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday September 10th 2013.

All models show a changeable pattern for all areas between now and Sunday with a series of troughs sliding SE and East over the UK over the next three or four days bringing spells of showery rain to all areas at times. The South will see the most prolonged if not the heaviest rainfall with only Saturday offering something rather drier later in the day. By Sunday all models show a vigorous depression developing to the North of Scotland with winds becoming strong to gale over most areas later in the day with spells of heavy and persistent rain possible.

GFS then shows a cold front swinging SE over the UK with clearer, cool and showery conditions for a few days before less cool and drier conditions affect the South by midweek. However, the pattern remains changeable with further Low pressure crossing East close to the North of Scotland with further cloud and occasional rain. Later on a ridge of High pressure affects the South with fine and dry conditions likely while the North sees a westerly flow with cloud and some rain. At the very end of the run an ex tropical storm winds up close to NW Ireland with attendant fronts crossing the UK with rain and strong winds, the latter chiefly towards the NW.

The GFS Ensembles show fairly average uppers when taken as a whole made up from members offering conflicting resolutions. The operational is a very warm outlier on the eastern flank of the ex tropical storm at the end of the run. Rainfall is not shown to be anything noteworthy beyond this weekends and the start of next week's storm.

The Jet Stream shows the flow digging SSW across the UK tomorrow in association with the complex frontal system of tomorrow. The flow weakens away from the UK back to a position to the North of the UK. In association with the deep Low to the NE early next week the flow dives SE strongly over the UK from a punchy flow across the Atlantic spawning further Low pressure later next week.

UKMO tonight shows a deep low pressure area slipping SE towards Northern Scotland next Monday with rain and strong winds having cross the UK followed by distinctly cool and blustery NW winds and squally showers the order of the day for several days early next week.

GEM tonight shows a very unsettled and windy start to next week with rain followed by showers before a slow relaxation of conditions allows High pressure back into Southern Britain at least towards the end of the run.

NAVGEM shows a cold and unsettled start to next week with Low pressure sliding SE down the North Sea with a very windy and showery NW flow with hail and thunder in the showers for many.

ECM tonight shows a very disturbed and cool start to next week too bringing Low pressure as NAVGEM down the North Sea where it fills and is responsible for delivering the UK cold and showery weather with NW winds veering towards the NEW by midweek. Pressure does rise as the Low fills up soon after midweek with a slacker pressure pattern though with disturbed air aloft showers would still be likely. Then at the end of the run it does look like Low pressure is liable to feed back down from the NW.

In Summary tonight the weather looks like becoming quite volatile for a time at least at the start of next week as a deep Low is more or less confirmed now to move down close to Northern Scotland from the NW late in the weekend. Heavy rain then cold showers would be experienced for all if any of tonight's output verifies. Later in the run the pattern remains a little more confusing though there seems a growing trend to hold Low pressure close by or bring new centres into play come mid or late week next week with further rain or showers possible. All in all there is a lot of Autumn in the output tonight with something for everyone possible in the next 10-14 days.

impressive depths of Cold its only september

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=0&nh=1&archive=0

Indeed. The Autumn cooldown has arrived quickly.

The switch down here in the south in the last couple of days has been noteworthy.

tell me about it , this has come very fast this year , heating on already , tan fading , all very depressing , i would of expected temps to still be in the 70's given its only the 10th of September !!!!!!!!

Not depressing at all, TBH. Indeed, it's rather nice to be reminded that September can be an autumnal month, makes a  change from the monotony of "extended summer" Septembers that we've had in recent years.

The switch from a high near 30C (and using air-con) to a high of 14C a few days later (with the heating kicking in in the early morning) was one of the most marked seasonal switches I've ever seen.

Good morning. Here is this morning's offerings from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday September 11th 2013.

All models show an occlusion close to the SE moving away East. A new set of fronts over the NW are shown to move South and SE through the day bringing outbreaks of rain and drizzle, heaviest in the West through the latter half of today. The cold front then gets hung up over the South as it loops back and returns East over the North tomorrow as a warm front with rain and drizzle for the North and cloudy but less damp weather in the South. As the cold front slips South on Friday and Saturday it develops waves which enhance rainfall over Southern Britain for Friday and Saturday clearing late in the day. The North will be brighter and fresher on Friday and Saturday. By Sunday all models show freshening Westerly winds and fronts approaching from the West with rain following later in the day moving East.

GFS then shows the deep Low bringing Sundays rain further North than last evening's midday run and consequently brings less dramatic changes to the South at least. Nevertheless, all areas will see a spell of rain and fresh to strong winds with gales in the North and NE followed by brighter and cooler weather with NW winds, the showers most prolific in the North. Later in the run the weather warms up somewhat for a time, especially across the South as High pressure ridge up into Southern England. This is then pulled east in response to the remains of an ex-tropical storm heading NE towards Iceland and giving the UK a spell of rain as it's cold front clears through and followed by Low pressure to the North delivering further showers or outbreaks of rain in temperatures close to average to end the run.

The Fax Charts show a complex array of fronts mostly affecting the South and West with rain and drizzle over the coming days before the large depression forming on Sunday brings a warm and cold front East across the UK at the end of the weekend with wind and rain for all.

The GFS Ensembles show very little cohesion following the weekend Low pressure with a wide spread between members showing many different options again this morning. The only general theme I can pick up is that following the weekend rainfall the trend shows rather less rainfall for the South the deeper we move into the run. The temperature profile is hard to quantify today as the average shown by the mean line for the run is skewed by equal warm or chilly options with the operational a warmer outlier in it's latter stages.

The Jet Stream shows the off shoot from the flow moving South or SW today in association with today's complex front structure dissolving away later tonight as the main arm rides NE to the North of the UK for tomorrow until the weekend. The flow strengthens early next week innitially across the UK from the NW before lifting slowly North towards Northern Scotland or even further North deeper into next week.

UKMO today holds the deep Low to the North of the UK early next week with the brunt of the cold and showery weather held to these areas while Southern areas become at risk of further Atlantic disturbances running East in the flow with spells of rain but less cool conditions than in the North.

GEM develops the Low as the other models and maintains Low pressure close to the North and NE of Britain well into next week with unstable, cool and showery conditions for all with the added ingredient of rather more prolonged rainfall at times as troughs running East in the West or NW winds continues until later in the week. Then High pressure builds from the South with a quieter Autumnal spell of dry anticyclonic weather likely for a time towards next weekend.

NAVGEM brings the Low pressure towards Northern Scotland at the beginning of next week and holds it there while filling slowly for several days, all the while continuing to spiral areas of cloud, rain and showers East across Britain in a cool West to NW flow.

ECM today shows the deep Low to the North and NE of britain at the start of next week with a band of rain followed by showers for all. It then draws a secondary depression into it's flow towards midweek which would bring heavy rain across england and wales followed by very cool Northerly winds and showers to all for a while later in the week before a ridge of High pressure in the wake of the Low topples East over the UK with further low pressure, this time well to the NW delivers cloud and rain on milder SW winds towards the end of the run.

In Summary today it's a very mish mash selection of charts which while showing some interesting synoptics offer no cohesion in patterns making next weeks weather extremely difficult to decipher today. It looks odds on that some sort of wet and windy spell early next week is likely, most effective in the North while the South may see no more than a strong breeze and a band of rain. Where that depression goes in the longer term is open for debate this morning as options of High pressure rebuilding or continuing unsettled weather with Low pressure to the North are all shown to some degree or another with anything possible. To use the much used phrase on this forum it's a case of many more runs needed before things become any clearer and commonplace between the models.

Thank You For the output Martin.

The force is not with us at the moment..

It is depressing ,unfortunately we can all afford to go to Vegas and its 100f heat  by the way when you coming back with your early morning summeries ?

  Cold wet and windy sums it up. September looks certain to be colder than average now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

That's not in the least bit certain - for all you or anybody knows, the final week could see something akin to late September 2011. Admittedly it's going to take something considerable to turn around the negative anomalies that look likely to develop during the next week or so.

If anything, the key phrase this morning is 'uncertain', as an active jet stream provides numerous areas of low pressure that are each likely to be modified in one way or another as their time draws closer. It does look to be turning into one of my least favourite months of all time, but what can you do eh?