Lots of seriously autumnal runs around lately... the best we have are signs of ridging from the SW on GFS and UKMO for days 6 and 7... which are tentative to say the least.

It does look as if Hurricane Humberto's ex-tropical form might push that ridge across us for a time. GFS then brings the storm on through in a direct hit, but as a rapidly weakening feature - nothing more than a typical spell of gale-force winds and some rain. However, a different phasing of energy could have resulted in a serious weather event - so it's something to keep an eye on.

As I type, ECM is yet again addicted to sliding energy SE, going against UKMO and GFS for day 6 with a small feature in the Irish Sea at noon. That low tracks right across the Atlantic without being absorbed into the westerlies on the ECM version, whereas UKMO and GFS hardly show it as a distinct system at any point.

Just seeing now that ECM has a decent ridge on day 7 to compensate, coupled with Humberto being a fair way upstream of where GFS has it on that day. If that storm could become trapped behind the ridge... there I go dreaming again!

The high-latitude blocking being modelled from day 4 is very interesting to see, and represents changes in the Arctic as the immense ridge builds right up to the Pole and more or less splits the PV in two. A test run for winter?

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Thanks James

Tuesday Looks a very wet day for southern parts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Reviewing the 12z op runs, we've now got a classic case of GFS blasting away the block post-day 5 while ECM and UKMO keep it in place thanks to the remnants of the big storm Sunday/Monday tracking east and propping it up.

Due to the ECM/UKMO solution being a new direction for those two models, their version can only be taken as a suggestion at this stage, though GEM isn't too far away either so something substantial must have changed somewhere. The question now is whether those three models are responding correctly.

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Good evening. Here is tonight's account of the 12 noon outputs from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday September 13th 2013.

All models show a rippled front across Southern Britain will move away East overnight with it's heavy rain clearing away East with it. The North already rather drier and fresher than further South and these conditions extend South to Southern areas too tomorrow with some sunshine and light winds. On Sunday all models show a deep depression crossing East to the North of Scotland with a spell of rain and strong winds sweeping East across the UK through the day with gales in the North. By Monday clearer and more showery weather will have swept across all of Britain with some heavy and squally showers for all with hail and thunder possible through the day. On Tuesday another disturbance looks like crossing Southern Britain with another spell of heavy rain and the chance of strong winds before all of the UK return to a more showery regime midweek as Low pressure slips SE down the North Sea.

GFS then shows a steady improvement developing from the SW as High pressure builds in later next week though a complication from an ex tropical storm could return unsettled and wet weather briefly at the weekend as this feature passes across the UK. Thereafter the South sees a lot of dry and bright weather close to High pressure to the South. However, further North and West depressions and fronts passing close by could maintain some spells of cloud and rain at times. It should become somewhat warmer as winds back more towards the SW.

The GFS Ensembles look somewhat different to this morning with considerable variation from day to day. There is alternating cool and warmer phases shown tonight with the operational a particularly prime example showing as a warm outlier towards the end. Rainfall amounts as far as Southern Britain are concerned are lower too than was shown this morning.

The Jet Stream continues to show a strong jet flow across the Atlantic and down over the British Isles from the NW over the coming week or more.

UKMO shows a changeable weather pattern across the UK in the middle of next week with Westerly winds and occasional rain as troughs pass East in the flow but lighter winds by then and probably a little less cool.

GEM tonight also shows changeable weather continuing throughout next week. The cool and windy theme of the beginning of the week does lessen in the second half of the week as the cool flow is eventually cut off as winds back West. GEM also shows the remnants of an ex tropical storm move East over the UK next weekend.

NAVGEM continues to show the Low held up over the North Sea next week with cool and showery weather for all before winds decrease and back towards the West next weekend with less in the way of rainfall in the South for a time.

ECM looks much better too tonight as High pressure is programmed to build from the SW to replace the cool and unsettled spell next week with a much better weekend especially in the South.

In Summary tonight the pendulum has swung back towards a shorter unsettled spell with quiet and standard High pressure based Autumn fayre more likely from next weekend as High pressure is shown with some cross model support to build up from the South or SW with temperatures returning to normal if not a little above in the South. The North though looks like maintaining a more unsettled feel though even here improvements are shown over this morning's output.

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Thanks Martin

We have hope from ecm as Martin says but u would have to say ecm looks unsettled in the reliable.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

That jet tilt n/w s/e tilt looks primed for quite an unsettled period to come.

As James says will have to wait and c.

Some hope there which is nice.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Good to see growing support for much welcome warmer and settled weather and in short time the rain spikes had been downgraded a lot thankfully after it been a very soggy unforecasted week here.  It wasn't meant to be a very wet week so hopefully to see clear gin skies during the cool shot early next week and see temps back to normal 20's for September and goes above normal to low to mid 20's possible at the end as there support from the ensembles.  It been a very boring first half of September and far way too early for silly Autumnal weather unless you want a 1992 style or 1994 when Autumn start from early Sepgtember and stay all the way to end of winter. 

Whether it is too early for "silly autumn weather" or not, after today the coming days look distinctly autumnal. Having said that is meteorological autumn so early autumn weather shouldn't be too much of a surprise!

Things may settle down in a week or so but the uncertainty at that range will be massive IMO, due to the low confidence in the tracking of the tropical/post-tropical storm systems.

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I do hope we get another decent week, there's quite a bit of wheat still to harvest round here.
It was barely ready at the start of the month (this is normal) 

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Good morning. Here's how I see weather events over the coming two weeks as seen through the eyes of this morning's outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday September 14th 2013.

All models including the Fax Charts show a general consensus of agreement for the weather type between now and the end of the coming working week. A weak ridge of High pressure is shown crossing the UK with fine and dry weather for most following the slow clearance of rain and cloud from the SE later today. Winds freshen from the SW later today and tonight across the NW as a deepening Low advances towards an area North of Scotland by tomorrow. After a cool night in the South and East, fronts will bring heavy rain and gales already in the North to all areas by the end of the day with the clearance of a cold front later the precursor to a period of cool and very showery weather over the UK at the start of next week as the parent Low slowly fills and drifts slowly SE down the North Sea. There is still a risk of a more prolonged period of heavy rain for a time towards midweek in the South though this looks less certain this morning with the showery theme equally possible of continuing. Later in the week the trend is shown for all models to point to somewhat less settled conditions to develop over the South as a weak ridge tentatively builds into these regions with the North maintaining changeable weather with rain at times. It is likely that most areas would become less cool by the end of the week.

GFS then shows the remains of an ex tropical feature running NE towards the NW of Britain with rain and strong winds here next weekend but with less windy and fair conditions looking more likely over the South. This process is repeated at the beginning of the second week before High pressure affects most of Britain for a time with dry and bright days and misty nights before somewhat changeable conditions with slack winds develop for all by the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles today show a very mixed bag trending just above average overall once the surge of cool air early next week dissolves. Some rain at times is shown for all but more especially for Northern locations.

The Jet Flow currently surging across the Atlantic strengthens further over the next few days across the UK where it is maintained for a fair amount of next week slowly easing Northwards across the UK by the end of the reliable period.

UKMO shows a slack Westerly flow at the end of its run across the UK with occasional rain from weak fronts crossing East, most active in the North.

GEM shows a somewhat more changeable theme again towards the end of the run with a moist SW flow carrying ex tropical air with occasional rain across the UK in rather warmer air than of late.

NAVGEM too shows a less windy and less cool end to the week as a weak ridge crosses over giving a drier period before Westerly winds bring a series of fronts, fairly weak in the South with rain at times for all.

ECM shows a similar scenario with next weekend looking OK for the South while northern areas see windier and more changeable weather with some rain. This then looks like edging South to more areas early the following week though the extreme South possibly staying drier. It would become less cool than next week.

In Summary details are sketchy but the theme is a common one this morning that after a windy and cool Autumnal week next week conditions look like improving to some degree, especially across the South. It's to what extent such an improvement is likely this morning as the Atlantic will maintain more than enough energy to keep the North mostly quite breezy and unsettled while the South has the best chance of seeing fairly lengthy dry spells between short spells of cloudier and damper conditions. The one common denominator between all the output this morning is that beyond next week temperatures would recover closer to average with temperatures rising even a little above average in the South at times, especially by day.

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I reckon you will have to be a long way south to enjoy much decent weather on this mornings runs, IMO only the south east is likely to see any settled weather in the next 10 days with at least cloudy if not wet conditions from he Midlands northwards. The Meto 10 day forecast yesterday was very poor and has removed any mention of a settled Autumnal spell. We shall see and high pressure may be more in evident from next weekend but the NH pattern has certainly switched quickly into winter mode. On the ECM we even get a Greenland High at +240.

Andy

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Thank You Martin...

Output better next week after the blow Sunday/Monday....

 

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Indeed.

Very changeable weather ahead.

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Day 5... GFS has a ridge into the SW with long-fetch westerlies but also notable LP still to the NE, restricting warmer temperatures to England and Wales.

UKMO has the ridge and westerlies too, but the LP the other side of the UK is to our E rather than NE. While GFS has further energy piling east on day 6, UKMO has the higher heights towards Svalbard holding off the Atlantic, the net result for us being a slightly better ridge from the SW and more chance of that ridge holding on for more than a few days when compared to GFS.

GFS still uses Humberto to shove that ridge across the south for days 7-9, with some warm TM air, but it's soon swatted aside and it takes a new HP cell later in FI to recover the situation.

What about ECM then? Well... it's a hybrid of GFS and UKMO; upstream is more like GFS and to our east it's halfway  between GFS and UKMO. Unfortunately it then throws in an extra trough racing through from the WNW, just like it did last night. This feature has no support from any other models, yet it can't be discounted given that this is ECM at 5 days range we're talking about.

It really has become almost impossible to predict anything much beyond 5 days, or even 4 days at times.

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Maybe not so unsettled for the south later on

at 500 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

signal temps recovery?

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

 

But some chilly nights on 6z gfs for middle england and wales next weekend 1-3c given

 

most unsettled fax charts ive seen for a while in the short term

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

 

Hope continues not to bad 6z mean.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0

Been told off before as I should look at the whole spread which is true but thats not bad gfs mean at that time.

 

Better from ecm mean for the south>120

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

That looks OK for some autumn warmth there.

 

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Good evening folks. Here is the evening report taken from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday September 14th 2013.

All models continue to show the current quiet weather quickly being replaced over the next 24 hours with wet and windy weather as a deep and deepening Low advances East to the North of Scotland. A Warm and Cold front will cross all areas to be clear of the UK in 36 hours time. Rain and strong winds in association with these troughs will move quickly SE across the UK tomorrow clearing to squally showers tomorrow night and Monday with some heavy and squally ones affecting many Northern and Western areas perhaps with hail and thunder locally. On Tuesday complications in the pattern could produce more persistent rain for a time across the South as a fast moving frontal wave moves through in the strong breeze. By midweek the winds die down and back more towards the West with most of the output continuing to show changeable and often unsettled conditions especially for Northern and Central areas.

GFS then brings steady improvements across Southern Britain next weekend as High pressure builds up from the South with some dry and bright conditions when it could also feel reasonably warm in the daytime. It isn't long though before shallow troughs of Low pressure move across all of the UK from the West with the 2nd week looking like being changeable for many with rain at times but with some drier intervals too when it shouldn't feel too cold. This changeable and often windy theme, the latter later in the North develops further and lasts until the end of the run tonight.

The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow moving SE across the UK and strengthening markedly over the next few days before it slowly weakens and tilts back more West to East over the Nation by the end of next week. It then shows signs of returning back North clear of the UK mainland in the outer limits of the reliable timeframe.

UKMO tonight closes it's run showing a broad WSW flow over the UK with mostly changeable conditions for all. Having said that amounts of rain from Eastward moving troughs in the South look likely to be small with the windiest and wettest conditions looking likely for Scotland and Northern Ireland at the end of the week.

GEM shows a similar 144hr chart to UKMO's version tonight leading on to build High pressure across Southern Britain for a time next weekend when temperatures would exceed average values in dry and bright conditions but probably with a lot of cloud. From the Midlands Northwards though the unsettled theme will be more enhanced with outbreaks of rain at times in a blustery WSW wind. In this airflow it would be technically mostly mild in the North too but would probably feel cool in the cloud, wind and rain.

NAVGEM has a broad Westerly flow over the UK at the end of next week and the weekend with showers or spells of rain likely over all areas, heaviest in the North with temperatures quite close to average but cooler at times in the far North.

ECM tonight shows a build of pressure late next week and weekend across the South with Southern and Western areas seeing some fine weather for a time. More Northern areas are more likely to continue changeable with some rain at times though the gales and inclemency of the early week weather should of gone with temperatures recovering somewhat. Towards the end of the run indications are shown that changeable conditions will affect all areas of the UK as a broad Westerly flow ensures troughs move West to East in the flow always most active in the North but sufficiently so in the South too to give some rain at times here too. 

The GFS Ensembles show a typical mixed Autumnal pattern of days of just below average uppers and some with above average with nothing extreme either side of normal likely. This goes for rainfall too with a short drier interlude from around the 21st in more southern locations

In Summary tonight's output reflect a changeable Autumn period to come with spells of wind and rain in the coming week with very cool conditions for a time. Most models then support a moderation in conditions towards the end of the week when the South becomes fair for a time with our old friend the Azores High having inched closer by then. Longer term is anybody's guess quite frankly with either a push further North of an Azores High influence to most of Britain or a return to windy and changeable conditions in a Westerly flow with Low pressure near the far North the most likely outcomes.

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looks good.

 

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Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and the Fax Charts for today Sunday September 15th 2013.

The General Situation. All models show a Low to the NW of the British isles deepening and moving slowly East then SE down the North sea over the coming days to be in the vicinity of Germany by Thursday. Troughs will cross SE over the UK today with another feature crossing the South on Tuesday with more persistent rain in association with these while in between times squally showers are expected driven on by strong to gale NW winds especially in the North and West at first and the North and East later. By Thursday conditions will moderate over the UK but with a further spell of rain crossing East as a precursor to this before quieter and less unsettled weather extend across Southern and Eastern areas at the end of the week and through next weekend with some dry and bright weather to be found with some decent warmth and brightness by day but with the chance of mist and fog overnight towards the far South. The north and NW may well continue more changeable and breezy with some rain at times as Low pressure remains to the North or West.

The Fax Charts a complex Low pressure based pattern through the working week with troughs today giving rain before a strong NW flow takes over for several days. Wave depressions are shown to cross close to Southern England on Tuesday with a further set on Thursday with rain in a fresh Westerly breeze.

GFS then builds High pressure up from the SW across most areas next weekend with fine and warm conditions developing especially over the South as an Easterly drift feeds warm air off a warm continent. High pressure remains in charge then centred over Northern Britain with a lot of tranquil Autumn days with mellow warmth and sunny spells by day while the night could become very foggy at times, especially in the North. Late in the run the weather slowly deteriorates as Atlantic depressions gradually edge in from the West in freshening Southerly winds.

The Jet Stream shows the flow piling SE over the UK for much of this week before it ridges North to be positioned North of the UK in a weeks time in an undulating North and South moving pattern over the Atlantic.

UKMO today closes it's run with a slack zone of pressure across the UK next Saturday with a lot of dry and fair weather in average temperatures for most places. The far North and West of the UK do look as though they will come under the influence of a NE moving warm front through the day with thicker cloud and occasional light rain.

GEM tries to build High pressure up from the SW too next weekend but with less success and would only give Southernmost parts a drier and brighter interlude before an active Low and fronts bring rain and gales to the North which the remnants of spread South to all areas before the close of the run sees a north/South split weather pattern develop with the driest and brightest conditions likely across the South in a Westerly flow.

NAVGEM looks a lot like UKMO at the Day 6 point moving forward with a cold front moving slowly into the North and West from the Atlantic. A few dry and bright days seem likely across the South before cloud and rain move across the North and West late next weekend with strengthening SW breezes.

ECM today shows slower changes towards High pressure next weekend with less windy and changeable conditions to end the working week before a ridge of high pressure crosses the UK over the weekend from the West with a dry and bright spell for most before a SW wind freshens and brings rain in from the NW later in the weekend. the trend towards the end of the run returns unsettled weather to all as troughs swing NE delivering occasional rain and showers to all in average September temperatures.

The GFS Ensembles show an unsettled week before High pressure brings a drier spell to the South through next weekend when it will feel rather warmer before more changeable weather is favoured to return across most areas in average temperatures later in the run. The operational was a warm outlier as expected with such a long spell of anticyclonic weather shown.

In Summary there is a general pattern formulated between the models today of a wet and windy start to the period gradually moderating towards the end of the week as fronts become less and less active and eventually leave the South and East altogether next weekend to give a spell of tranquil early Autumn weather in these areas. The further North and NW one travels the chances of unsettled and at times wet weather increases though even here things look less Autumnal with regard to wind and rain than this week. Later on in the output it looks like High pressure will gradually loosen it's grip again with a traditional mix of Atlantic fronts bringing wind and rain alternating with drier and brighter interludes with showers though it looks though this will always be concentrated towards the North.

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