Plenty of heavy showers coming into the NW now. Sferics now in NW Eire, close to the border

Re-activating this thread for some potential later this week.
A moist, warm southerly plume is established from the south with dps +16, high theta-e vlaues and some attendant troughs from Thurs onwards.
Also of note is a pool of upper air (500HPa) at about -16C to the southwest at 12Z Sat which may be the focus for more robust activity with an associated trough.
Some potential exists for convective developments - detail not possible at this range though.

Thunder recently heard from Warlingham, Surrey according to my dad. Presumably its from that lone cell passing along the bottom end of the M25 now.

Sharp burst of rain going though here.

Nice to see some banks of Altocumulus Castellatus this morning

Latest BBC News 24 forecast talking of possible thunder in the South this weekend

some sharp showers approaching the bournemouth area now although they might stay out to sea.

Latest BBC News 24 forecast talking of possible thunder in the South this weekend

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Ooh, finally, something to watch out for. Although I have been thinking along the same lines, I couldn't see anything on the models to suggest that when I looked at them this morning so I backed away from the idea . . . but I'm sure it wouldn't take a lot to change my mind again.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

GFS doesn't make much of it but some of the higher resolution models do

The potential I identified on Tuesday is showing up nicely on the high-res WRF convective ppn model, with some lively activity pushing into the SW later tonight and threatening a line Bristol to Brighton tommorow.
Not a high end risk by any means but cells capable of delivering sferics and heavy downpours ar epossible, and again along the Channel on Sunday.
Some low-level directional shear effects are possible with a ENE surface flow beneath a S upper flow, so one to watch certainly.

i see Estofex have put us south coasters on the 50% storm risk. Hope this comes off as not had a good storm in IMBY for years

http://www.estofex.org/

Well thats the kiss of death right there

Some thundery showers moving across the Channel currently. Looks like some heavy rain in Dorset

Plenty of action in parts of South Devon.  Flash flooding on the cards.

Yes lots of deep rolling thunder and lightning here in Torquay. Its very loud and I've not heard thunder like this for a long time. METO rainfall radar showing torrential downpours and you can see the storm building very fast on the SAT pics.

Yep the trough has delivered as forecast with some impressive medium-base activity into Dorset and Devon this morning.
More activity expected during the day and overnight too.

Impressive display overnight, at one point I would guess the lightning was flashing  at the rate of twice a minute and this went on for quite some time.Very white in colour. A big cell to my West making the radio crackle. Thunder not that loud so would guess it was high based.  I see another trough moving up to my South which will hopefully give me some more action. 

Morning.nice way to wake up.thunder,forked lightening heavy rain.first storm in yonks.cheers

http://estofex.org/

A massive fail? If flash flooding is on the cards for parts of Devon then surely some kind of warning should have been put up...?

Thunderstorm in Guernsey, about to impact here.

Following a lightning strike on a house chimney in Brixham there was a smell of burning in a property and fire crews attended, although the damage was "superficial" part of the chimney did fall on to cars below. When the fire crew got back to the station they found that they had been flooded which included some sewage. A fire spoksman said that in Brixham one of the streets had become like a river and the sheer amount of water lifted off manhole covers.

The only other incident was a lightning strike causing a power cut to some homes and businesses in the St Marychurch area of Torquay.

Currently dark with light to occasionally moderate rain, have'nt heard any thunder for a few hours now.

Another batch now over the CIs will again affect the SW this evening. Some frequent lightning returns in there.

Impressive thunderstorm, current rain rate 100.2mm/hr.