Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead video forecast: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the written version: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

High pressure continues - Cooler air from mid-week, perhaps.

There's some sound problems with YouTube videos at the moment, so if ypu can't hear any sound on the vid, it's not a problem with your speakers, it's something going wrong at YT's end.

I've got two video's tomorrow - The CFS Six Months look-ahead + A look at how things are developing across Russia in terms of snow cover.

Look out for them on Sunday.

Thanks as ever for your support and thanks to Brian and the Mods for making it possible.

EDIT: Here's the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead Video for October: http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Cheers as always. Here's hoping that the possible cooler airmass will at least have the effect of mixing the air up a bit later on this week and thus shifting that "trapped" low to mid-level cloud layer (like what I'm seeing right now) in the process.

Thanks Gavin.

Just have to mind the fog...

Thanks Gav

Cheers Gav..

Thanks Gav

FYI when I first tried the vid it was muted but I since discover that quite a few people have had their video speaker control turned off (by what I don't know)  but all other sound is still OK

Just need to unmute the speaker if you get this and that seems to fix it OK

Thanks Gavin

Ah, thanks for the tip Lanky.

Thanks all.

Hi all,

Here's the CFS six month look-ahead video for October;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Some pretty interesting charts again.

Siberian Snow cover video at 2pm.

Cheers Gav

Another good video Gav

Thanks Gavin. So the trend continues for blocking to our N/NW/NE, I've been following the CFS for this coming winter since May and it's been consistent for the majority of it's runs for sustained blocking throughout the winter with varying degrees of where heights may establish themselves over the high latitudes. At this stage of the Autumn I would say there's about a 70% chance of this winter coming in with below avearge temps for all three winter months.

Thanks SC.

I'm not sure I would rate is that highly for all three winter months, but I would say if we don't get at least some signficantly cold weather (I still get a feeling in my waters about January, personally) I'll be very surprised.

Just to say today's second video has been released - Looking at the increase in Siberian Snow Cover. You know where to find it I'm sure.

Thanks Gavin, shame we don't have snowcover records going back before 1998 - would have been interesting to see some snowcover at similar times from 95 and 86,87.  As you mentioned it is just one piece of the complex puzzle, interesting too that CFS is going for a cold March on that run from the earlier video. I saw a run last week with a very similar chart - to have a second cold March in a row would finish some people off (if it's a long winter) but statistically unusual I would think.

Thanks Gavin

Interesting from your video on Siberian snow cover to note that 2002 had a lot of snow cover in October - but we had a very poor winter following. 2008 had very little snow cover over Siberia in October - but he had decent wintery weather following in winter

As you say this is just one of a number of factors that make up a winter forecast

Fanks Gav

Thanks for the 6-monthly Gavin

I'm not the biggest fan of these CFS models as every time I look it is just completely different to trhe previous run and I cannot spot any trends (although I must say your ones seem to be pretty good on consistency unless you just got lucky )

One thing I did pick up on though is that you are showing the anomaly charts rather than the actual pressure charts. They are mostly similar but I have noticed that if there are no pronounced features that month then they can diverge. Novewber 2013 (below)  is quite a good example of that when I looked just now

I wonder whether it would be better for your monthly updates to show the projected pressure charts rather than the projected anomaly as a more direct "steer" on what the weather might be like

Just a thought