A look at the current FAX chart as opposed to that of T120 shows why relying on things in FI is futile given the polar(pun) opposite switch in synoptics

Given the proximity of the 528dam line to the SE and high SST's I would say there is considerable scope for heavy convective rainfall near the coast

Certainly going to be a real shock to the system after such a warm summer and autumn so far. As some have mentioned perhaps it could be like the sort of dramatic switches we see in places like Canada. Straight from summer to winter 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7217.png

A much chillier night on the way

Make a change from summer rain showers that often inland and sunny on the coasts so this weekend would be other way round and 06 show dry with little or no rain while lot of rain over the channel.  It very likely in the next few runs will clear this up and follow UKMO likely out come as many northerilies bring dry and cool weather with HP moving in. 

Hi all,

I've got all the information on this weeks significant change in todays video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Much Colder Weather On The Way

Some pretty unusual charts about for this time of year, TBH.

Looking good... Especially the Dramatic Increase in Siberian snow cover......

Itl be enough for some wintriness getting down to lower levels in isolated parts of scotland and a snow level generally of 200m in the cairngorms. 

Bloody hell, the 12Z GFS is insane. The blocking is stupidaly intense for the time of year; we even have the polar airmass knocking on the door of the UK by 192h. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png

Making it cold in Scotland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png

An intense LP to end with

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3484.png

Heavy rain to go with it

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1007

Adjustment south

Nice

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Lovely blocking now from gm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

Door is now opened look at that for displacement

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Looking at the GFS ensembles (for the S Midlands) it's difficult to see what (cold loving) people are getting excited about - okay, a couple of colder days this week but then from the weekend onwards average or above average 850hPa temps right the way through.  And generally dry.   Looks like some fairly pleasant autumnal weather - great for misty mornings and mushrooms and lazing in the hazy afternoon sun. 

I think the northern blocking in itself is something to get excited about as a matter of interest. I know its ridiculous to hope for snow and cold in october. But I love seing unusual weather scenarious, I'm used to seeing iceland lows start to develop round about now - its an interesting change. 

I think I must be looking at different charts to you as I can't see anything 'generally' dry from the South Midlands and certainly not for London from tonight's GFS Ensembles from the weekend onwards.

 http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Anyway Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 7th 2013.

All models continue to show a marked change in conditions as we go through the week. the current fine and dry weather across the South will be eroded by a band of rain and drizzle across Southern England tomorrow. Further North brighter skies will develop with some showers, heaviest in the far North. Through Wednesday and Thursday colder weather will extend South to all areas with a mixture of sunshine and showers to end the week with some heavy and thundery showers in places later in the week. This theme then continues through to the weekend with the showers becoming more prone to SE and Southern England in a cold NE breeze while the North stays dry, bright and rather chilly with frost and patchy fog likely at night.

GFS then shows a very unsettled second half to it's run tonight with Atlantic Low's eventually engaging with cold air flooding out of the Arctic to give rise to some explosive low pressure developments around or over the UK with strong winds approaching gales and heavy rain in very Autumnal and chilly conditions for all late in the run.

UKMO tonight shows the SE at risk of showers or rain at times through next weekend while many Northern and Western areas stay dry and bright by day with clear spells at night giving rise to frost and patchy fog in these areas.

GEM shows a very showery pattern across the South of the UK with High pressure to the North of the UK keeping Northern parts dry, bright and cool with some night mist, fog and frost. Pressure builds South late in the run with many areas becoming or staying dry with widespread fog problems night and morning and still chilly enough for frost at night where skies stay clear.

NAVGEM has Low pressure centres close to the South of England over the weekend and start to next week while the North stays dry and bright under a ridge of High pressure. At the end of the run it looks like the quiet and potentially chilly pattern remains with some frost and fog at night along with the odd shower especially in the South.

ECM tonight shows Low pressure to the South filling up at the start of next week with occasional rain or showers and rather cloudy skies slow to recover with slack winds across the UK. Late in the run the model shows Low pressure closing in towards the UK from the West with South and West Britain becoming more unsettled from the SW with rain at times.

The GFS Ensembles look distinctly unsettled tonight particularly through the second half of the run with plenty of rain opportunities highlighted. Temperatures depressed at first will recover to closer to average values soon after the coming weekend.

The Jet Stream tonight shows the flow to the North diving South over the UK around a depression close to SE England by the weekend. This weak but significant portion of the flow then dissolves away but the new flow passing over the Atlantic is then diverted South of Britain by High pressure over the Arctic through Week 2.

In Summary the weather will remain much cooler than currently after the inception of the colder weather on Wed/Thurs. However, despite this it will never be desperately cold but be particularly noticeable due to the duration of temperatures of current values and the strength of the northerly winds. As we move through next week it looks like the cold winds in the SE will subside and a period of slack pressure will ensue with a lot of dry and benign conditions with temperatures close to average. In the outer edges of reality there are some interesting dynamics shown from GFS with gales and heavy rain likely with ECM too showing an attempt at Low pressure feeding in off the Atlantic at the end of the run but as we all know 2 weeks is an age in model terms.

Well if cold peeks too early, you know the outcome.... No snow for Christmas

Maybe, but right up to the last days of Chrimbo and the ruddy weather warms up... Again... 10C is just not on for Xmas 

day

However looking cold end of October CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-540.png?06

Personally I haven't got any faith in pattern matching with years gone by. The weather has a mind of it's own and rarely follows the exact path predicted the day before yet alone years. With regard to the upcoming wintry style synoptics I would rather of seen them in January rather than October but just like in January chances are that things will look mild again in a couple of weeks such is the vagueries and complexities of a maritime island climate.