Good morning. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs of the regular big 5 weather models for today Thursday October 10th 2013.
All models show all areas now under a much more seasonal spell of chilly north and eventually NE winds across the UK. A lot of dry weather will be shared for many areas especially those in the north and West close to high pressure. In the South and especially the East and SE of England some blustery showers are expected today with a very strong wind with these conditions affecting other parts of the South of England and Wales over the weekend as the pressure pattern rotates to High to the North and Low pressure weakly near to or over the South by the end of the weekend. The start of next week is shown to become quite tranquil across the UK as the low over the South fills and the High to the North weakens for a time.
GFS then shows a South or SW flow developing towards the middle of next week, first in the West and then areas further East. Some occasional rain would accompany this change as well as returning normal temperatures. Then from the end of next week for the rest of the period low pressure steadily moves across the UK filling slowly but giving spells of windy and sometimes wet weather before a strong pressure build to the NE encourages Low pressure to slip SE over Southern areas with further spells of rain at times in temperatures near average but rather colder in the NE.
UKMO this morning closes it's run for next Wednesday with Southerly winds developing over the UK in response to a series of deep depressions ganging up to the West of the UK. Troughs from these would be expected to brush into at least Western Britain with occasional rain and temperatures near to or a little above average.
GEM also shows a Southerly flow developing next week though a little later in the week. The progress is unhindered though and by the weekend the weather will of turned wet and windy at times over all areas but reasonably mild. A powerful ex-tropical storm becomes caught up in the Low complex to the WSW at the end of the run and throws up the possibility of some very stormy conditions with very heavy rain just after the expiry day of the run.
NAVGEM shows the Atlantic becoming more dominant earlier next week with a spell of cloudy and rainy weather lasting several days in average temperatures as SW winds take hold. Towards the end of it's run some intensely cold air for October floods SW over Scandinavia and winds up a powerful storm system over the Baltic at Day 7 which leaves the UK in a more slack weather pattern with rather colder and dry conditions in the North with dry and less cold conditions for the South.
ECM edges Southerly and then SW winds into Britain as we progress through the middle and end to next week with rain at times becoming prominent after Wednesday, first in the west and to all areas by the weekend when winds could become strong at times and the rain heavy in places. Temperatures would recover to average or somewhat above though under this SW'ly regime.
The GFS Ensembles this morning show a short cold snap followed by some rather wet conditions developing over the weekend in the SE, areas further North soon after and the far North last of all. Rain at times is shown for all then for the rest of the run with mild temperatures easing back towards average at the end of the run in stronger winds than we have experienced for some time later in the output.
The Jet Stream still has it's main thrust well to the North of the UK near Scandinavia. A new arm then develops across the Atlantic on a much more Southerly latitude bringing depressions further South across the Atlantic to affect all of the UK later next week. Through week 2 there is little significant movement from it's end of next week position though at this range details are pointless.
In Summary after the current short but cold reminder that we are well into Autumn temperatures recover again next week as Southerly winds look like taking control albeit slowly. From midweek it looks like the tranquil conditions of the early week could be replaced by more traditional wet and windy type Atlantic based weather with lengthy dry spells at a premium. On the plus side despite some mouth watering cold pools floating about to the NE very early this season none look likely to affect the UK at this current time with temperatures always at or above the average with winds quite strong at times later next week but basically from a SW quadrant.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset