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Could be catastrophic.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif
What a beautiful presentation.
Image link.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=02B&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
It's being compared to the 1999 super cyclone which killed 10,000 people. Hopefully better forecasting will avert casulaties on this scale as mass evacuation is in progress
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24487130
Local forecasts give winds of 220 km/h (136mph) but some agencies put this figure much higher
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2551
"Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has maintained Category 5 strength for six hours, and is expected to remain a Category 5 storm until it is just a few hours from landfall on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal, according to the 5 pm EDT Friday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours, and is now at peak strength of 160 mph, tying it with Super Typhoon Usagi as Earth's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013."
Just look at the projected rainfall totals:
http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/swath.PHAILIN02B.2013101100.png
That's roughly 200-400mm of rain across a large area, with locallised totals hitting 600mm. Across 5 days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02B/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif
My thoughts today are with those who's livlihoods lie in the path of this storm.
Some live coverage can be found here
http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/
Latest death toll 15 (Reuters) or 18 (BBC) . Euther way, a remarkable achievement in building cyclone shelters and mass evacuation, and should be saluted as such.
The last big cyclone in this area killed 10,000!
Originally Posted by: DEW
I concur, but to be balanced the storm did weaken considerably just before and during landfall and the footage I saw wasn't 'overly' extreme as far as Indian Ocean systems go. In fact, I suspect that regional Met Office may face some criticism for calling a Cat 5 landfall. That said, and accepting the standard of buildings in the affected area, the evacuation no doubt saved many lives.