Good morning. Here is the morning report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday October 15th 2013.
Today sees all models introducing a sustained spell of unsettled and Atlantic based weather beginning tomorrow. Low pressure settles over the Atlantic and steers a front NE across the UK tomorrow before it becomes slow moving over Northern Scotland. Behind the front warmer air moves in and then begins a period of many days of temperatures on the mild side of average with spells of rain, wind and showers with a few almost springlike sunny intervals in between the rain bands. Northernmost areas will see somewhat less mild weather but even here it will never be desperately cold though with some persistent rain at times in a cool ESE wind.
GFS then shows the entire remainder of the run with broad and strong SW airflows blowing across large parts of the UK, sometimes strong with gales in exposed places. All this will be in association with Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and passing NW Scotland at times.There would be spells of rain at times too with just briefer drier and brighter spells in between. The North could feel a little fresher at times as cold fronts pass through.
UKMO has Low pressure off NW Ireland at the start of next week with a fresh to strong SW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all in temperatures on the mild side of average.
GEM in particular shows the potential for a stormy spell early next week as a viscious Low moves up from the SW close to central Britain. To it's North colder and wet weather would feature while to the South the strongest winds and potential severe gales would take place along with heavy rain albeit under very mild conditions here.
NAVGEM holds Low pressure just to the West of Ireland early next week throwing frequent troughs NE across the UK with rain at times followed by showers. It shows a generally mild picture for all.
ECM shows wet and windy weather early next week as a very deep Low passes close to the North of the UK. After a mild period colder weather would engage the circulation on the rear side of this Low, shown to affect the North after the middle of next week with showers turning wintry here over the hills. The South would remain rather milder with rain at times from a slow moving trough across Southern England.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show a sustained spell of wet and windy weather across the UK over the next few weeks. Temperatures look like staying on the mild side of average throughout the entirety of the output both North and South with just a handful of cooler options in the North later on. Some drier, pleasant and still mild weather looks like occurring at times too. It also looks like becoming quite windy at times too with a dominance from a SW point.
The Jet Stream looks like maintaining a new position across the Atlantic towards the UK for some considerable period to come.
In Summary today the trend remains for the UK to be staring down the barrel of a sustained spell of mild SW winds with rain at times. The North could be a little chillier at times but there is little sign of any chance of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks. Despite the rain being a common feature for most areas some brighter periods will be likely to occur at times too when in shelter it could still feel quite warm. Winds could be strong at times almost anywhere but with the majority of the time seeing the UK bathed in a SW wind direction this will emphasise the reasons why the UK is likely to remain mild.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset