Apologies for pre-disposing your question and an interesting one at that, but my guess is that you have as much chance of correlating the weather on Nov 5 with the rest of the winter as Great Britain have of winning the ski-jumping at the Winter Olympics

This is a weather forum, and OK trying to forecast the winter based on conditions on Nov 5 might be insane but studying a potential relationship may not be and at the very least it's interesting. Look at Groundhog Day. A total wipeout as far as statistical correlation goes but millions tune in to hear what Phil has to say.

It is a significant day in that many families either have a bonfire or go to an event so the weather is important and remembered for years after.
The classic 5th November weather is relatively calm anticyclonic conditions, and the smoke can increase the chance of fog.
I expect it is more often breezy and rather unsettled though - but the foggy ones stick in my mind.

Chilly high pressure rarely lasts long at a time of year when the Atlantic tends to dominate.

I get the point you are making.  But this is the weather equivilant of the Time 11:11 (google it - its a facinating behaviour trait of the mind)

Becuase you always remember the 5th Nov, you will always remember the weather on that day.  Because its a day that on balance will always be chilly and perhaps frosty due to it being november, you always will look back at Winter being cold, and that night being chilly also.  The following day being foggy also.  The brain doesnt remember the weather on any other day and the following seasonal weather.  Its an easy one to remember and the brain likes to see that pattern.

Would be interesting to see the results if someone has the time, but really the only thing worth understanding is the Wider weather for a very large area say continent size on or around that date vs the winter ahead.  You can then draw comparisons similar to that where siberian snow cover and winter links etc... but even thats not an exact science or proven.

Oouch! but nevertheless interesting...

It is a thread started by Sriram

Sorry but i just find it complete madness that the weather on one day can be a factor in determining the following season. We all know that future weather is driven by so many different factors (the reason why no one can predict with any accuracy anything more than a few days ahead), and one of those factors is not the weather on one day. The fact that today is mostly sunny and warm means nothing for the winter ahead or in fact what the weather will be like in 2 weeks time  

I take it you're not a great fan of St Swithin?

No one is seriously suggesting one day in isolation can help predict the season ahead - the enquiry is I'm sure just a bit of fun. Best not get too frustrated LOL.

It can't of course.

But that doesn't mean there isn't a relationship. There's nothing to say every single cold November 5th in last 100 years has lead to a very mild winter because we haven't checked! If by some quirk that statistic was true that would be some crazy odds!

I can give some data from the last few years

2009 - 12*c rain, 2010 - 17*c rain, 2011 - 14*c rain, 2012 - 10*c part cloudy.

Well you never know, I did hear Eddie Edwards was thinking of making a comeback!

Seriously though, it's amazing how often the weather seems to turn properly cold around Bonfire Night. I often record my first air frost about Nov. 5.

It is an equally insane idea that the weather on 15th July will forecast the next 40 days !!

If it begins to snow at 23:55 on new years eve this year.
There's a good chance there will be snow in January 2014.

To be serious,though.

There are many certain days or periods mentioned in weatherlore, the vast majority have statisically been proven to be wrong.

I think, Sriram,Your question about Nov 5 ,although interesting,might fall?. (statistically wise).

A great poser though.