issued 0600 Estoex
http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2013102706_201310252339_1_stormforecast.xml
... British Isles and surroundings ...
The frontal system of the next pronounced low-pressure system crosses the British Isles. A strongly sheared and helical flow is forecast to develop in a narrow belt ahead of the cold front due to a concentrated Southwesterly low-level jet (25-30 m/s at 850 hPa). With marginally unstable profiles and strong forcing, a shallow convective line is expected to cross Ireland around noon and most of the UK by midnight. Severe wind gusts are possible, and a few tornadoes are not ruled out in the case that more discrete convection can crystallize along segments of the line. After a few hours of postfrontal subsidence, a new round of deeper and more vigorous convection will move onshore overnight with the next vorticity lobes. Deep-layer shear will then decrease due to a more equalized flow through the depth of the troposphere, but with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the relatively warm sea and a further tightening gradient at low levels, even ill-organized storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Limited area models agree on the development of a comma over the Celtic Sea overnight, though the solutions are highly diverging with respect to its timing, intensity and path. Hence it was decided to stay with a high-end level 1, though there is a possibility of widespread severe wind gusts in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall very late in the forecast period, when the 850 hPa flow starts to exceed 30 m/s!
Originally Posted by: Polar Low