Given that the Met Office has given an early warning about the potential for a damaging storm on Monday i thought a separate thread might be in order.

GFS 18z wind prediction:

Maximum gusts:

100km/hr gusts along the entire south coast, 120-140 in the Channel, then 80-100 in the wake of the LP system.

Coupled with some heavy rain:

Forecast to hit through the Monday morning rush-hour, so could be pretty difficult.

Some similarities to 1987 it has to be said. But like then, we really dont know how this will pan out until a few hours ahead

Funnily enough, I was just thinking half an hour ago whether it might be worth having a new thread ready for this event!

I gave a 'heads up' to our team this evening, to keep a watch on the coming forecasts - chance of a few call outs if this materialises!

With confidence increasing for an event on Monday morning, this is certainly worth a dedicated thread.
As I said yesterday, we are still in the guess range regarding track and intensity but it seems likely that a 'daughter low' baroclinic wave system will deepen rapidly into a closed low in the SW approaches and impact somewhere in the UK between 03Z and 12Z monday.
The blend of outcomes suggests a track entering S Wales and exiting north of The Wash, which would bring severe gales across the South and then S and E Midlands and EA perhaps.
Note much has to be decided yet, and the difference between worst and best case scenarios is unknown at this stage. The density of data points in the E Atlantic and improvements in algorithms puts us in a better position than previous events such as 1987 with reference intensity and impact zones so you can bet the Meto will be keeping a very close eye on things over the next few days.

As it stands, and without being too melodramatic, I would be giving anyone with events or activities on Monday that could be impacted by severe weather (pretty much everyone!) a heads-up.

hi this storm does look like october 16 1987 . like i said in the model page but if this come off and in the rush hour , this could be worse not in wind strength it could be less strong it depends if this storm has got a sting jet like 87 but compare to the burn's day storm it might be worse because the tress are in full cover . i'm wondering on sunday will the council advise the schools not to open so there won't be  too many caught in the rush hour . good luck everyone i do hope the storm won't cause to much trouble for u and your family

Yes the fax charts would take the worst into N France Southern England would get away with it from there "Just" has to be watched thou but usually it trends south with time but not always.

Latest Fax   http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Monday's storm on the models is currently nothing more than a very weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexcio that the GFS/ECMWF don't show developing until Sunday/Monday in a very rapid manner. So as good as the models are, this thing has quite a ways to go, and it might not be until it gets within range of the higher resolution models over the weekend that we start to get a solid idea of the track and intensity.

Welcome!! and type of development within the energy to the north of course.

Thanks. Long time lurker! Interesting model watching over the next few days.

Thanks Neil, I am actually off caravanning in Cornwall from tomorrow, the sites right on the coast west of Newquay and very exposed to any westerly winds and I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of campers there with tents. I did mention earlier in the week on their website there maybe a storm heading this way for next week so might be best to warn them again that there's a more than reasonable chance this may happen.

Met Office has an amber warning out now for sunday night so they must be fairly confident this storm going to arrive.

Correction south opp 6z gfs still all to play for thou

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=1

06Z GFS takes a more southerly track, 15-20mb weaker than the 0Z run.

The Met Office warning certainly doesn't hold back on the severe potential, mentioning the possibility of gusts over 80 mph.

If its not the wind its the amount of rain that could course flooding problems.

not far from the japs last night

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=120&mode=1

japs has done her self proud in front of gm and navgm imo

The strength of the wording from the Met Office surprised me this morning:

"A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on
Monday, bringing  the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the 
UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding. At this early 
stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the
public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other 
structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies. 

I mean, usually at this range they will avoid phrases like 'very intense' and 'exceptionally windy' due to the uncertainties. Same goes for 'falling trees' (usually just branches predicted at this stage).

Of this morning's 00z runs, GFS seems to be more or less in line with the above, while UKMO is a bit less intense, as is ECM by the looks of things.

On the other hand, UKMO and ECM have moved towards GFS since yesterday's 12z runs.

The 06z GFS is indeed weaker and further south, so we're a long way from sorted yet.

I'm still laughing at the timing of this thing; the day after my field trip studying the weather in Dorset comes to an end. Talk about a close shave!

The correction southwards, if it proves correct, would mean less damaging winds for the south but potentially more rainfall (the heaviest rain always seems to be on the northern flank of these systems, which seems counterintuitive to me as you would think the warmer and wetter air would be to the south...)

Of course, the track is very much dependant on the severity of the system - if it engages with the jet stream "just right" and deepens more than predicted, then it will take a more northerly course.

It's my day off on Monday so I will stay in and batten down the hatches I think!

Dont make sense James does it from there own fax charts at t120 which has human input perhaps thou they want to be careful.

"A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on
Monday, bringing  the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the 
UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding. At this early 
stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the
public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other 
structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.