theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Darren S
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:41:10 AM

Virtually all outputs over the last 36 hours or so have had the centre passing over this area with the strongest winds to the south. I have also constantly added that it looked bad for more southern and south eastern parts.

If the downgrading continues the only people that are going to look stupid will be sections of the media. Again.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Which is the same as October 1987, ironically. Where I lived in Cirencester, and I dare say it was much the same in Yate, the depression centre went right across us, and we had nothing more than a breezy day with things quite different in the south east.
Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
eddied
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:41:36 AM

If this http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard is the latest pressure map showing whats happening out in the Atlantic should we be seeing a more defined area of low pressure by now rather than the kink shown in the isobars? Or is this what we should expect to see for a storm of the intensity currently being forecast? 


Genuine question, just want to understand where we are in terms of computer modelling a storm vs actually tracking one. 

Originally Posted by: wingman 



My understanding is that it's the late explosive development of these sorts of systems that makes them so tricksy. As such it'll be mainly in the computers for another 6-12 hours. That said the satellite is showing its birth quite nicely. They'll be watching how closely it's development matches the predictions through today fairly closely I'd imagine.
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Darren S
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:42:18 AM

I've been explaining to friends and colleagues that predicting this storm is a bit like trying to predict the path a cricket ball will take after the batsman has hit it, when the bowler is still in his delivery stride.

The Met Office could explain that fact a little better, I think, then people would understand if it became an almost non-event.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 



Nice analogy! đź‘Ť
Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Polar Low
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:42:22 AM

still looks very concerning for pars of the south and s/e


 


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur24.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur27.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur30.png


 


 getting to the stage as others have said as a now watch situation

Jim_AFCB
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:42:26 AM


If this http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard is the latest pressure map showing whats happening out in the Atlantic should we be seeing a more defined area of low pressure by now rather than the kink shown in the isobars? Or is this what we should expect to see for a storm of the intensity currently being forecast? 


Genuine question, just want to understand where we are in terms of computer modelling a storm vs actually tracking one. 


Originally Posted by: wingman 


 


The low is only just starting to develop, wait a few hours and it might start to look a little different.

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here. 
Matty H
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:43:12 AM

Virtually all outputs over the last 36 hours or so have had the centre passing over this area with the strongest winds to the south. I have also constantly added that it looked bad for more southern and south eastern parts.

If the downgrading continues the only people that are going to look stupid will be sections of the media. Again.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 



Which is the same as October 1987, ironically. Where I lived in Cirencester, and I dare say it was much the same in Yate, the depression centre went right across us, and we had nothing more than a breezy day with things quite different in the south east.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I was in Weston at that time and it was pretty awful there (for many reasons, not all weather related) they closed the seafront to traffic and pedestrians, and I remember part of a hotel collapsing.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
NickR
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:45:02 AM
From Ian Ferguson at the Meto on NW:

"The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important."
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
idj20
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:48:24 AM

Looks like we are taking a step back from the brink tonight. Hopefully further downgrades in the morning runs. It wont be non event but I think a lot of people may be wondering what all the hype was about come Monday.
Of course, it could still go the other way, but it does appear the channel will get the brunt of it as it stands tonight

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



I'm almost to the point of declaring it nothing of major note for this area. It's going to take until tomorrow afternoons runs to be fairly sure, but I'm increasingly confident for here UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Indeed as the latest updates continues the downgrading trend further still, now starting to look more like a typical Autumnal blustery windy day rather than a repeat of Oct '87. The GFS's Red Bull effect must have worn off.

But, hey, could still all change or catch us out especially as the jet stream over the South East of the UK is still packing a punch and winds could still gust up to 50 mph along the Channel coast in the early hours. Combine that with heavy rain and it will be enough to give some of us a headache anyway.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Ian. That is a ridiculous statement. I presume that is what you are hoping will occur ? The comment is very misleading and unhealthy in a thread that is discussing a potentially life threatening and disruptive event.
The 0z have downgraded to the wind gust potential. This is pleasing as quite frankly some of the output on view yesterday evening was scary.
Based on current output gusts can still be expected in the 70-80mph range (especially near the coast).
We are now at the mercy of the elements..lets see how this one plays out.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I'm going to wait until midday when the next set of outputs will come out. But you're right, I'm allowing hopecasting to get in the way. Actually, having thought about it, to tell the truth, I have no idea on what's going to happen tonight and I may put that up on my Facebook group.
Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:51:55 AM
The latest NAE data (06z) have the system marginally further south once again

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/euro/pslv/13102806_2_2706.gif 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:57:11 AM

From Ian Ferguson at the Meto on NW: "The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important."

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Good news


May not need to repair the fencing tomorrow after all!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:58:52 AM

The rain could end up being the bigger issue rather than the wind now


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/ukuk/prty/13102806_2706.gif


Dont often see the dark blue


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:59:41 AM


The rain could end up being the bigger issue rather than the wind now


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/ukuk/prty/13102806_2706.gif


Dont often see the dark blue


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Right over MBY

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


roger63
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:03:37 AM


still looks very concerning for pars of the south and s/e


 


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur24.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur27.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur30.png


 


 getting to the stage as others have said as a now watch situation


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


If its correct this shows clearly strongestvwinds to the south of us south.How does it compare with the same output at an earlier time?

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:05:06 AM

No situation is ever as good or as bad as you think it is ... old army maxim. On which basis, some downgrading is to be expected, but not as much as those who are writing this event off as a normal autumn gale would have us believe.


 


The worst outcome would be for a 'normal' gale tonight, at which point the forecasters would be accused of crying wolf, to be followed by an intensification of the already nasty storm beginning to show on some models for next Sunday.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
AIMSIR
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:08:23 AM

I am beginning to think this might be rather more a Media storm than a notable weather event?.

Polar Low
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:10:56 AM

Latest from Estofex


 


...western France, southern UK...
This region will be affected by two disturbances in 24 hours. At 06Z, unstable air under the influence of the shortwave trough is present as well as 25 m/s mean winds in the low levels, and some 20 m/s 0-1 km shear. Mesoscale convective development is not yet expected to begin, but these conditions combined with low LCL heights can lead to tornadoes, aside from severe wind gusts. After 00/03Z, the cold front of the second low comes in. It seems to become somewhat convectively active, likely as a forced convective line (there is little CAPE and EL at only -15°), this time with 30-40 m/s mean winds in the low levels over NW France capable of producing damaging gusts at the ground. The front bends back over the southern UK with less strong wind field but enhanced shear and instability sufficient for a tornado or two. The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run.

Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:12:57 AM

Latest from NAE still looks pretty bad. Especially for the SE and London right in time for Monday rush hour.


http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=190268

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:27:36 AM

Perhaps forecaster VAN DER VELDE words of comfort at the end are worth much more than looking back in time to compare in complex developments like this for for me and other members in the s/e at least he felt those words in his trend.


"The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run"


 



still looks very concerning for pars of the south and s/e


 


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur24.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur27.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur30.png


 


 getting to the stage as others have said as a now watch situation


Originally Posted by: roger63 


If its correct this shows clearly strongestvwinds to the south of us south.How does it compare with the same output at an earlier time?


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Sevendust
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:29:53 AM


Perhaps forecaster VAN DER VELDE words of comfort at the end are worth much more than looking back in time to compare in complex developments like this for for me and other members in the s/e at least he felt those words in his trend.


"The 00Z GFS run predicts the low to take a much more northerly and faster course with more stable conditions than the 18Z run"


 



still looks very concerning for pars of the south and s/e


 


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur24.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur27.png


http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur30.png


 


 getting to the stage as others have said as a now watch situation


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


If its correct this shows clearly strongestvwinds to the south of us south.How does it compare with the same output at an earlier time?


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I think he's alluding to the convective environment. A more northerly course would not be good

doctormog
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:34:38 AM
Here's the close up view of the area in focus as modelled by the 06z GFS op run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs211.gif 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs241.gif 

(Remember these isobars are at 1hPa intervals not 4)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Global Warming
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:35:40 AM

6z NAE looks to be broadly in line with the mean forecast track over the last day or so. Centre of the low over the Bristol area at 03z. Strongest winds in southern coastal counties from Dorset eastwards and later into Essex and Suffolk by 6am.


The system is expected to move through a little quicker than was shown this time yesterday but still gets down to 972mb.


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/ukuk/ismh/13102803_2_2706.gif


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/ukuk/ismh/13102806_2_2706.gif


Rainfall about an inch (25mm) for most with slightly more in a band from the Bristol Channel to the Wash (30-40mm)


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/10/27/basis06/ukuk/rsum/13102806_2_2706.gif

Rob K
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:40:12 AM

I've been explaining to friends and colleagues that predicting this storm is a bit like trying to predict the path a cricket ball will take after the batsman has hit it, when the bowler is still in his delivery stride.

The Met Office could explain that fact a little better, I think, then people would understand if it became an almost non-event.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 



To be fair I have heard them mention several times that the system hadn't even formed yet when they were first warning about it.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:46:27 AM


From Ian Ferguson at the Meto on NW: "The key issue is how models are trending to reduction in upstream jet. This has been critical component of explosive deepening. NAE and EURO4 picked up on this possibility yesterday AM and importantly, latest UKMO-GM also less developmental. So next assessment of 06z NAE v important."

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Good news


May not need to repair the fencing tomorrow after all!


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


That was my worry too and the polytunnel getting a hiding...

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
iPope
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:48:57 AM

Hi,

I have been watching this website eagerly regarding this storm, and would like to say Thank You, from a point of view of someone who has very limited knowledge of weather patterns, to the posting of charts, graphs, etc.

It is all very confusing I will admit, and as this is still developing more so for everyone regarding certainty, but at the moment could anyone advise on what the wind direction will be in my area over night?

I viewed a link yesterday that said very strong Northerlies, then southerlies, then westerlies.

Now as I say I understand it can all change very quickly but can anyone please 'translate' some of the info regarding the wind direction?

Thanks again for the website - there is an amazing wealth of combined knowledge on here.

For what it is worth regarding the storm, the seas out there look horrendous at the moment for the current SW breeze we are having. :(

abbiati50
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:53:04 AM

Nothing more than an ordinary Gale; amazing downgrade in the last 24 hours; I will not be surprised to see going that way down even further in the next run.

Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads