Still looking unpleasant along the coast and up here but I think it is a downgrade. We were looking at gusts of potentially 90mph and now it's down to 75mph at most. That's a downgrade in my book.

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81 is in fact the highest currently forecast (if you look at the MetO website). It's a "downgrade" of a few MPH, yes, but it's an inexact science and you'd expect the absolute maximum numbers to vary a bit between runs.

We're still likely to see the odd 90 MPH gust even if the forecast max is 81, FWIW.

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Ian. That is a ridiculous statement. I presume that is what you are hoping will occur ? The comment is very misleading and unhealthy in a thread that is discussing a potentially life threatening and disruptive event.

The 0z have downgraded to the wind gust potential. This is pleasing as quite frankly some of the output on view yesterday evening was scary. 

Based on current output gusts can still be expected in the 70-80mph range (especially near the coast).

We are now at the mercy of the elements..lets see how this one plays out. 

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FWIW, not a day to be crossing the Channel! It's very rare to see "Hurricane Force 12" for the Straits of Dover.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Dover

Dover
Gale warnings - Issued: 0341 UTC Sun 27 Oct

Southwesterly storm force 10 increasing violent storm force 11 later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 0405 UTC Sun 27 Oct

Wind
Southwest gale 8 to storm 10, increasing violent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later.
Sea State
Rough or very rough, becoming very rough or high later.
Weather
Thundery showers, then rain.
Visibility
Good, becoming poor.

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The live forecasts (MT) still seem to be sticking to a major event, but Matt was keen to emphasize that the system was still 'in the developmental stage' and 'things may still change'.

It is true GFS and MetO (ECM 00Z not out yet) have backed-off from the worst of it, but NAE and HIRLAM still bring an intense storm across C England.

Even at this stage, with development of the low already underway, the uncertainties and issues associated with a system like this will still cause even the best of models headaches and the range of outcomes remain quite broad.

Edit: ECM out in 6hr steps for me and difficult to say if it's changed or not.

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The 0Z HIRLAM is still showing a very intense storm, however I think this may be due to it using 12Z ECM data. Since the 0Z ECM has downgraded development I would expect to see the 06Z HIRLAM downgrade too later this morning.

 

And here I am in Ealing - thought I'd nip south from Orkney for a brief Autumn visit - get a break from the autumnal gales.
Next 24 hours will be interesting - capacity for damage here seems greater - trees in leaf, nothing seems tied down in gardens, and prospects of flying roof tiles a very real one.

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I was listening to the Shipping Forecast earlier and hurricane force 12 was mentioned for a number of areas. It doesn't happen very often, even for those sea areas off the north of Scotland so for it to be forecast for The Channel is quite exceptional.

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Ian Ferguson saying on Twitter they think to storm may develop less than was feared, good news for all I suspect

Latest fax chart shows the developing low at 999mb at 06z. Pretty much exactly where the forecast 24 hours ago said it would be right now.

The next 12 hours will be critical in terms of how deep this system gets by the time it reaches us.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF

Morning GFS has a very much weaker system.

What is really irritating is that all those people who have been crowing about it "not looking too bad" will think they are vindicated, even though they were 100% wrong when they made those statements. You can only go by what the models show, and if you say a chart "doesn't look bad" and the models the change subsequently, that doesn't make you right in the first place - just lucky!

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Basically they dont know!

Ian Ferguson Twitter

The current @metoffice assessment suggests 60-70% chance of a developed storm; 30-40% chance one much less so. More later

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This is using old data though the 0z are far less severe.

 

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Doubt it. The 0z has gusts to ~80 mph for coastal locations, which fits the above forecast perfectly. PS - the forecast was issued after the 0z run came out (internally, we plebs don't get to see it for a while afterwards).

EDIT: 18z MetO run (yes, there is one) had gusts that were 5 MPH higher. It's not exactly "far less severe" for the area in question!

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If you're referring to me, my comments have always been based on my area and have always been 100% correct on whatever the models have been showing at that point. Virtually all outputs over the last 36 hours or so have had the centre passing over this area with the strongest winds to the south. I have also constantly added that it looked bad for more southern and south eastern parts.

If the downgrading continues the only people that are going to look stupid will be sections of the media. Again.

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I agree Rob. Second guessing what the models were not actually showing is and was just guessing. As for the current output, some models may have shifted things a bit further south but it will still be notably windy in many southern locations. An overall glance across a selection of output makes me think that the storm is developing a little later rather than less. Of course either would probably have a similar impact on the south. There's still a few hours to go and things will no doubt continue to change for a while.

The BBC are still running with this story as the main headline which is no bad thing as a small downgrade of a very powerful storm still leaves a powerful storm.

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OK fair enough but there is certainly massive doubt at the Met on just how bad it will be.

 

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You know I wasn't referring to you. Your analysis has been perfectly fair as your area was never in the firing line.

I mean the people who have been saying "Looks like nothing more than a normal autumn gale" etc. That is what it is looking like this morning but 24 hours ago it looked much worse.

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Fair enough.

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Not sure about others but I acknowledged the severity of the charts but just felt it was overhyped. Besides, be it snow, storms or thunder, all the exciting stuff nearly always gets downgraded right before k.o. We try and go all Americanised with our weather hype but unlike our neighbours to the W, we just don't get the real extreme stuff.

A gale is still on the way and nowcasting is the best tool from tonight onwards.

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BBC weather just now still mentioning gusts of 80mph  well inland and possibly 90mph!!! Still could go either way as they must have taken the 0z models into account by now.

 

 

 

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all i say all eyes will need to be on country file  2nite weather that should give 9 hours  notice

If this http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=standard is the latest pressure map showing whats happening out in the Atlantic should we be seeing a more defined area of low pressure by now rather than the kink shown in the isobars? Or is this what we should expect to see for a storm of the intensity currently being forecast? 

Genuine question, just want to understand where we are in terms of computer modelling a storm vs actually tracking one. 

I've been explaining to friends and colleagues that predicting this storm is a bit like trying to predict the path a cricket ball will take after the batsman has hit it, when the bowler is still in his delivery stride.

 

The Met Office could explain that fact a little better, I think, then people would understand if it became an almost non-event.

 

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