Nothing more than an ordinary Gale; amazing downgrade in the last 24 hours; I will not be surprised to see going that way down even further in the next run.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

80mph gusts are "an ordinary gale" in the south of England? really?

Originally Posted by: abbiati50 

Read in red underneath Caveat

Sometime you get answers and other times you don't... Depends whats on the experts minds, what calcs they may be making, or who's are arguing with who or deriding at the time... Still it's interesting even with the slight agro...

(Caveat.. They are ALL good guys and gals... Regardless that quit a few come from Scotland (The land of the mighty winds)

Actually (If you can bare the wind, rain and have time to kill ) you can watch over a period the clouds change direction...

Thank you, still a guessing game then and understandably so really.

Not so much guessing but trying to calculate with so many variables involved and and different model predictions

The Beeb forecast can be a bit misleading for those who are scrutinising

Matt Taylor had a large hatched ( Mid Wales Southwards) area showing gusts of 80 mph , yet the graphics never pushed the bigger arrows further North that the M4

Not complaing if the arrows are the true indication of where the strongest winds are going to be of course

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Blink and you miss it.

A fast moving storm for sure.

Can anyone post some good camera links to watch this from afar,  (already have the trafalgar sq one, it should be entertaining)

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Just a quick note before I go out for lunch. If the 06Z NAE is close to the mark, the system is a bomb with >3mb deepening every 3 hrs.
This is important, because it's not so much the depth of the low as it enters the UK, but whether it is still deepening and developing as it crosses.
Some models in the last 24hrs have shown it developed as it approached. The NAE now has it still developing and it is this which threatens the damaging winds, and also why it is so hard to calculate impact.

For some areas South of the M4 for instance, the threat of damaging gusts is still very real.

  Look at the wind speed at 7 am to 8 am for my location:

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Folkestone_Harbour/hour_by_hour.html

This is live from the railway at Dawlish in Devon. Good for watching the trains go past and watching the sea in stormy conditions

Gracious me, I wouldn't like to be living on the northern Dutch coast.

Hopefully Van Persie will be going home

Very latest fax chart for 06z tomorrow.

This has the system a little further north than the 6z NAE (low centre is just to the north of The Wash rather than over Norfolk). Same central pressure though at 972mb

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVE89.TIF

That is closer to the GFS 06z modelling.  Even inside 24 hours there's still some uncertainty on the variables here - clearly track and rate of development (intensity) are absolutely key and it may be this evening before the models firm up on what's going to happen.

Meanwhile I have this site bookmarked and really like the satellite views you get.  You can see the feature moving across the Atlantic (and last night's frontal troughs).  The system hasn't really developed yet - which is part of the problem here: the main deepening doesn't start until this afternoon.

Worth watching the Buoy reports very closely later this afternoon and into this evening as this is when we will get a good idea of how quickly the system is deepening. At the moment it is too far west of the UK and Irish Buoys.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

At present I am scanning the ship reports for any clue as to what is going on. Closest ship to the centre of the low which reported at 11z was situated at 47.9N 18.3W. It reported a pressure of 998.7mb with a 3 hour tendency of -3.4mb. So only very gradual deepening still at the moment but that is no surprise at this stage.

Have a look at the group c what u think,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=18&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Based on the above the main threat is from heavy rain rather than wind for the East Midlands.

Yes, unless the track moves further north you should be out of the firing line.

It is fairly breezy out there already today. Ignoring the Scottish mountains the peak gusts so far are as shown below.

I imagine the Pembrey figure is faulty but St Catherine's Point on the southern tip of the Isle of Wight has already reached 66mph (this was recorded between 8am and 9am this morning).

UK - Peak gusts [mph]

Pembrey Burrows (6 m) 81 mph
St Catherine's Pt (24 m) 66 mph
Aberdaron (94 m) 63 mph
Mumbles (32 m) 61 mph
Solent MRSC (13 m) 61 mph
Alderney Channel Is (71 m) 60 mph