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iPope
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:12:11 PM

The rain here has become very heavy over the past half hour. Very still outside but on XCWeather the wind is increasing at Culdrose.

scillydave
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:15:09 PM



Interesting data from the K1 Buoy. The low has now passed to the east of this Buoy but the pressure has not risen much as yet which you might expect it would start to do by now (it was 990.1mb at both 17z and 18z and only up to 990.3mb at 19z).


This could be for a number of reasons. It could be the low has slowed down its forward movement or it could be deepening rapidly or a combination of both. Or there could just be a fairly large area of slack pressure near the centre but that would tend to suggest there is no rapid deepening taking place. We will just have to wait and see how things develop over the next couple of hours.


Presure continues to fall at Sevenstones Lightship ahead of the low but not by as much in the past hour. 995.1mb at 19z which is a fall of 4.4mb in 3 hours.


Originally Posted by: radiohead 


And the pressure dropped a little at K2 to the north.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


The wind has swung right round on K1 which would suggest that the low has passed through and so the more likely of your options above would seem to be that it's deepening rapidly. I think!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Global Warming
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:15:37 PM


is this the centre of the low? (red dot )


Originally Posted by: ballogie 


Much closer. I can see why you think it is there but that is actually behind the cold front. The low centre is probably about another 50-75 miles due east of your dot. It is somewhere in the cloud band. Remember this is not a hurricane so we don't have clear skies at the centre of the low.


Check out the fax chart as this should help http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF

Global Warming
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:17:10 PM




Originally Posted by: scillydave 


And the pressure dropped a little at K2 to the north.


Originally Posted by: radiohead 


The wind has swung right round on K1 which would suggest that the low has passed through and so the more likely of your options above would seem to be that it's deepening rapidly. I think!


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


I agree that does seem the most likely scenario. I am reluctant to stick my neck out on this though until I have more evidence.

Marigold
  • Marigold
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:19:09 PM



is this the centre of the low? (red dot )


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Much closer. I can see why you think it is there but that is actually behind the cold front. The low centre is probably about another 50-75 miles due east of your dot. It is somewhere in the cloud band. Remember this is not a hurricane so we don't have clear skies at the centre of the low.


Check out the fax chart as this should help http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF


Originally Posted by: ballogie 


You can see it nicely on the latest surface chart, gives you a better idea of where to stick your red dot!


http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102720&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

Southern Yorkshire Dales











Gandalf The White
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:19:14 PM

Thanks for that gtw thats a great link

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html  http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Yes it is. I've spent rather too long at times watching systems evolving and watching showers forming. It's also not a bad place to search for Polar Lows in strong northerly flows.... Rare beasts though.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballogie
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:20:43 PM



is this the centre of the low? (red dot )


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Much closer. I can see why you think it is there but that is actually behind the cold front. The low centre is probably about another 50-75 miles due east of your dot. It is somewhere in the cloud band. Remember this is not a hurricane so we don't have clear skies at the centre of the low.


Check out the fax chart as this should help http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF


Originally Posted by: ballogie 


 


Thanks

AIMSIR
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:24:01 PM
Yes it is. I've spent rather too long at times watching systems evolving and watching showers forming. It's also not a bad place to search for Polar Lows in strong northerly flows.... Rare beasts though.

Straight into favorites with that one for me , Peter.


A really nice find.

chiversa
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:27:53 PM


http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html  http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html 

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 

Yes it is. I've spent rather too long at times watching systems evolving and watching showers forming. It's also not a bad place to search for Polar Lows in strong northerly flows.... Rare beasts though.

Straight into favorites with that one for me , Peter.


A really nice find.



Nice chart... as i was beginnign to think it wasn't coming! Winds are only 9 mph at Southamption and Yeovil, hardly batten down the hatches. but maybe calm before the storm


Alan

abbiati50
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:33:49 PM

windguru give dungeness at 57 knots - 3 am - winduguru usually is right on the mark regarding winds.


dungeness is one of the windiest place in se England - at 66 mph - is nothing special around there - still strong winds but nothing record breaking.

beaufort
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:37:26 PM

Pressure starting to drop currently 998.1 Mb, lower by 4.3 Mb's in 3 hours. Wind has dropped right off now down to 6 Kts. 19.8mm of rain so far today.


  

stormwatcher
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:37:51 PM

hi everyone


 


still blowing gale here very gusty wind been like that for one full day plus is heavy rain setting innow has i write this post . Sadly a teenager  is missing off newhaven  .

AIMSIR
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:39:05 PM


Pressure starting to drop currently 998.1 Mb, lower by 4.3 Mb's in 3 hours. Wind has dropped right off now down to 6 Kts. 19.8mm of rain so far today.


  


Originally Posted by: beaufort 

A steady 984 here in Dublin.


SW.16,


Gust.28.

doctormog
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:39:33 PM
I always find this link useful for tracking the progress of storms etc.

http://sat24.com/?ir=true 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:45:13 PM

WV image for 18Z


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/wv-l.jpg


Huge slot of dry air getting ingested into the system from the NW

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Global Warming
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:46:49 PM

Sevenstones lightship (between Lands End and the Scilly Isles) reports a fall of 2.8mb in one hour to 992.3mb at 20z. A 6mb fall in 3 hours.


Meanwhile the K1 Buoy is now up to 991.1mb suggesting the centre may still be closer to K1 than it is to Sevenstones.


Not sure I agree with the positioning of the low centre on the 20z Metocentre fax chart. Looks a bit too far NE to me.

radiohead
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:52:46 PM


Sevenstones lightship (between Lands End and the Scilly Isles) reports a fall of 2.8mb in one hour to 992.3mb at 20z. A 6mb fall in 3 hours.


Meanwhile the K1 Buoy is now up to 991.1mb suggesting the centre may still be closer to K1 than it is to Sevenstones.


Not sure I agree with the positioning of the low centre on the 20z Metocentre fax chart. Looks a bit too far NE to me.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


I think observations are only included every 3 hours (6pm, 9pm) etc. in between that the charts are smoothed using model data.

djbailey
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:52:48 PM

Erm, thats a bit strong isnt it?!!!

schmee
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:53:19 PM
Raining hard and relatively calm for now.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Matty H
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:53:20 PM
Wig had to leave to catch a train.

Back on topic please 😄
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
roger63
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:54:24 PM


windguru give dungeness at 57 knots - 3 am - winduguru usually is right on the mark regarding winds.


dungeness is one of the windiest place in se England - at 66 mph - is nothing special around there - still strong winds but nothing record breaking.


Originally Posted by: abbiati50 


Checking out METO regional forecast gives max gust strength for 0h to 06h for  Basingstoke,Southampton and  St Catherines point gives 55mph so less than the 60-70mph being still being  mentioned in BBC weather forecats.

DeeDee
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:56:49 PM
Global Warming
Sunday, October 27, 2013 8:56:49 PM



Sevenstones lightship (between Lands End and the Scilly Isles) reports a fall of 2.8mb in one hour to 992.3mb at 20z. A 6mb fall in 3 hours.


Meanwhile the K1 Buoy is now up to 991.1mb suggesting the centre may still be closer to K1 than it is to Sevenstones.


Not sure I agree with the positioning of the low centre on the 20z Metocentre fax chart. Looks a bit too far NE to me.


Originally Posted by: radiohead 


 


I think observations are only included every 3 hours (6pm, 9pm) etc. in between that the charts are smoothed using model data.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


They have got the up to date Buoy reports shown on the chart each hour. The centre is currently in an area with no observations so it is very difficult to pin down.


The 988mb isobar has now been removed from the 20z chart!


http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013102720&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

nsrobins
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:08:39 PM

Buoy 62107 between Lands End and The Scillys measuring rapid pressure drop now:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=62107&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT


 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
Sunday, October 27, 2013 9:15:10 PM

Wind seems slack at the moment , light rain, heavier ppn further to the SW marching in

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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