Well done on your update - yesterday evening video

You correctly forecast the worst affected errors in your video update yesterday - SW England, Southern England, Channel and running into East Anglia and SE in the early morning

BUT

I watched several BBC forecasts yesterday evening on national bulletins and News24 presented by Jay Wynne

For whatever reason they did not update this on any bulletins yesterday evening - before bedtime certainly at least !

They continued to have that orange risk area map stretching across a large part of England - that included the Midlands as well ?

As we all know too well - there was not much wind at all here just rain (probably a bit more for you in Northampton being more SE)

- so the met office and beeb did not pick up on this backtrack and downgrade of the amber risk area - but you did !

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If I know Gavin he will not take any credit and probably say he was just interpreting the latest data and obs, but you're right Gavin is normally a step ahead of many forecasters in situations like yesterday's.

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They probably didn't see Gavin's update.

He should be on the Beeb

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Whilst we still have a Beeb.....

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Sriram, i think that you should be able to interprete bbc forecasts and meto warnings rather better than joe public. Had jay wynne been able to get involved with his audience at the same level that gavin is, then i doubt the message would have been too different.

Did anyone have any idea just where that sting jet would appear? Nope, they didnt but pretty well anywhere within that amber area was a possibility.

Hi Scriram, I think the decision to have one larger amber area was taken in order to simplify the media message. It was acknowledged that the northern portion of the amber area (midlands) would most likely be affected by some heavy rain rather than the worst of the wind. At the same time there was a small chance that the low could have gone a little further north - so some buffer zone of uncertainty has to be allowed for - even at short lead-times. Delivering a warning as part of the public weather service has, by necessity, several considerations to be taken on board.

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You are absolutely right, but we are (and without sounding contentious) in the minority in terms of understanding the proceses and the uncertainties. The less experienced are quick to complain when the forecast, or their interpretation of it, doesn't go right, but we can see the mechanisms and make allowances for the potential error.

It is at times like this that I sometimes wish I didn't have the interest in weather that I do, if you know what I mean.

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Thanks Sriram.

I think the BBC/MetO have to have a much larger margin for error due to the fact they are the national met agency and if things had changed 50 miles, people in the Midlands would have been hit.

The amber warning meant there was a possibility of disruptive winds and given it would only have taken thew low pressure to go 50 miles north to bring large parts of Wales and the Midlands into the firing line, I don't think it was an unreasonable forecast.

The other difference is that Jay Wynne only has 2 minutes to give people all the information, where-as I had 9 minutes.

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Keep up the good work Gavin...Like the charts on the videos... 

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