Funny, I thought we were due another Ice Age?

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 31st 2013.

All models, though differing in the track of individual Low pressure systems paint a very similar picture over the coming few days. The weather will often be wet and windy especially in the South tomorrow and Saturday as a couple of Low pressure systems swing across from the West. In the North today's rain and showers will be maintained through the weekend too and strong winds will develop for most too, especially on Sunday. Temperatures will range to rather mild in the South to rather chillier across the North on the showery air.

GFS then shows a very changeable pattern for the remainder of it's run with spells of wind and rain alternating with some drier and brighter interludes, especially in the South due to temporary rises of pressure building from the SE at times. Temperatures should stay close to average overall and mild at times in the South although this will often be offset by the strength of the Westerly wind shown blowing across the UK for much of the period.

UKMO this morning shows a strong Westerly flow blowing across the UK through the middle of next week. The air will be relatively mild away from the far North and there will be a lot of cloud and rain at times for all, especially but not exclusively to the North and West.

GEM shows a strong Westerly flow too across the UK through the middle of next week with gales in places and rain at times for most. With time the flow weakens and backs Southerly with a quieter and mild interlude for a time before cloud, rain and potential Southerly gales approach the West on Day 10.

NAVGEM today gradually pushes the strong Westerly flow further to the North later next week as High pressure builds North from Europe. The weather on the ground would improve to become mild and dry with some brightness for some though the risk of some rain remains in the North and West.

ECM today shows a windy and mild period midweek with some rain at times especially in the North. Towards the end of the run the flow backs SW and the weather deteriorates further everywhere with troughs swinging NE bringing strong winds and rain for all again by day 10.

The GFS Ensembles continue to average a greater chance of milder than average conditions rather than colder than average. There is a lot of spread between members with alternating warmer and colder days without ever becoming particularly cold. The innitial amounts of rainfall could be quite high, especially this weekend but with time a pressure build to the South could well restrict rainfall amounts to more modest levels and with less frequency.

The Jet Stream shows the flow across the UK tilting more West to East over the weekend before reverting back to a more SW to NE flow across the UK thereafter. Looking into the outer reaches of the output there seems little significant signs of change over the period.

In Summary there is no change to report today with Westerly winds totally dominant over the two week period. Winds will be strong again for large swathes of the time with a lot of rain at times, especially this weekend and the start of next week. Thereafter though winds remain strong milder air will be fed across the UK with rain more restricted towards the North and West with the chance of some mild brightness in the SE for a time.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

I wouldn't be too concerned yet - granted the charts are  today if you like/ want cold weather but they are FI and they do only go out to Mid November. Hoping the Azores high is only a fleetng visitor as be interesting to put the very wet Autumn pattern matching (as discussed in the winter thread) to test.

 In the immediate future neither cold or as warm as it was so the only point of interest may be the amounts of rain and how strong the winds are.Let's hope we see some more interesting FI charts as we move into November.

carol  k  was  worring about saterday reg its deppening  very  fast

Looks very unsettled throughout the output this morning and staying that way into FI.

The odd weak ridge from the euro high but doesn't last which is no bad thing actually.

Thanks Martin

Look at that fax at t120

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

very wet flooding very likely by then for parts of the s/e and south by then I would have thought.

Low 'ds of low lots of rain the weekend..  Tuesday probably s damp Squid as well.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Atlantic Train Show's No Sign Of Stopping;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Wet, windy, mild. Wet windy, mild. Rinse. Repeat. You get the idea.

Thanks  Gavin.

Plenty of blue around...

Squids are usuall damp 

OTOH squibs  need keeping dry 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

At last a ridge stops the LP's

Deepest FI of course

Get the BBQ out!

Pressure building across the UK from the near continent. Bring it on I say. Guess it wouldnt be particularly cold set-up though with gentle Southerly winds.

^^^^^ smart Alec's ^^^^^^

Mine was at  the 6z showing Northerlies

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 31st 2013.

All models show the unstable and often strong Westerly flow with Low pressure areas and troughs spilling East across or near to the UK between now and next Tuesday. All areas will see periodic spells of rain and showers with squally winds. Temperatures will never be far from average but it will feel and possibly become a little colder for time on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday an active warm front is shown to cross the UK with rain for many before a mild but windy Westerly flow sets up as we move towards midweek.

GFS then takes us through a very changeable and wet period for a time before drier weather and very mild weather too in the South spreads further North and East late in the run on a backing wind towards the SW and South.

UKMO closes it's run with a broad and strong West to South-west flow with mild weather and rain at times especially towards the North and West.

GEM too shows strong and unstable Westerly winds with lower pressure overall meaning all areas will see further rain and showers in mild weather. Late in the run the weather may become milder still as the Westerly flow backs off to a long fetch SW flow with rain most likely then in the North and West.

NAVGEM tonight expands High pressure up towards the South of Britain late next week with any rain then restricted to the far North with most of the UK enjoying mild temperatures if rather cloudy and misty conditions especially near Southern and Western coasts.

ECM is yuk tonight if it's cold weather your after as next week looks like being mild and windy with rain at times across the UK. The last frame of the run indicates High pressure over France with a warm West or SW flow over the UK with rain at times in the North and West with the South and East seeing drier if rather cloudy but very mild weather.

The GFS Ensembles show a very mild prospect tonight under incessant Westerly winds, strong at times with occasional rain. Later in the run if anything even milder weather is more likely rather than colder as High pressure to the South pushes winds more towards the SW rather than West.

The Jet Stream is set to continue blowing West to east across the atlantic and the UK for the next week or so before the flow turns further North over Europe to make a SW to NE orientation North of the UK towards the end of the run.

In Summary tonight there is little to say that hasn't been said already. A mild and eventually very mild period seems likely with a lot of rain from the close proximity of Low pressure in the next 5-7 days before High pressure building over Europe sends things even milder as winds back SW at the same time as sending rain bearing fronts further North to affect just the North and West later.

Thanks Martin

it goes on and on mild and wet continues and of course wet flooding

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

We are stuck in a typical rut - will a SSW come along to save the day?

QBO QBO QBO QBO QBO QBO

Some hope from the ECM ensemble mean for those looking for at least a return to near-normal temperatures for early November.