Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 31st 2013.
All models, though differing in the track of individual Low pressure systems paint a very similar picture over the coming few days. The weather will often be wet and windy especially in the South tomorrow and Saturday as a couple of Low pressure systems swing across from the West. In the North today's rain and showers will be maintained through the weekend too and strong winds will develop for most too, especially on Sunday. Temperatures will range to rather mild in the South to rather chillier across the North on the showery air.
GFS then shows a very changeable pattern for the remainder of it's run with spells of wind and rain alternating with some drier and brighter interludes, especially in the South due to temporary rises of pressure building from the SE at times. Temperatures should stay close to average overall and mild at times in the South although this will often be offset by the strength of the Westerly wind shown blowing across the UK for much of the period.
UKMO this morning shows a strong Westerly flow blowing across the UK through the middle of next week. The air will be relatively mild away from the far North and there will be a lot of cloud and rain at times for all, especially but not exclusively to the North and West.
GEM shows a strong Westerly flow too across the UK through the middle of next week with gales in places and rain at times for most. With time the flow weakens and backs Southerly with a quieter and mild interlude for a time before cloud, rain and potential Southerly gales approach the West on Day 10.
NAVGEM today gradually pushes the strong Westerly flow further to the North later next week as High pressure builds North from Europe. The weather on the ground would improve to become mild and dry with some brightness for some though the risk of some rain remains in the North and West.
ECM today shows a windy and mild period midweek with some rain at times especially in the North. Towards the end of the run the flow backs SW and the weather deteriorates further everywhere with troughs swinging NE bringing strong winds and rain for all again by day 10.
The GFS Ensembles continue to average a greater chance of milder than average conditions rather than colder than average. There is a lot of spread between members with alternating warmer and colder days without ever becoming particularly cold. The innitial amounts of rainfall could be quite high, especially this weekend but with time a pressure build to the South could well restrict rainfall amounts to more modest levels and with less frequency.
The Jet Stream shows the flow across the UK tilting more West to East over the weekend before reverting back to a more SW to NE flow across the UK thereafter. Looking into the outer reaches of the output there seems little significant signs of change over the period.
In Summary there is no change to report today with Westerly winds totally dominant over the two week period. Winds will be strong again for large swathes of the time with a lot of rain at times, especially this weekend and the start of next week. Thereafter though winds remain strong milder air will be fed across the UK with rain more restricted towards the North and West with the chance of some mild brightness in the SE for a time.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset