Good morning everyone. Here is today's account of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NSVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 2nd 2013.
All models show a deep depression crossing Ireland and Northern Britain through today and tonight. After a fair start a band of squally rain will push quickly East followed by squally showers and clear or sunny intervals in very strong winds with severe gales in places this evening and tonight. this weather eases slowly tomorrow as the Low eases away East. Later a wave depression will form down to the SW crossing Southern Britain over Sunday night with a spell of heavy rain here. Clearer, colder weather in the wake of today's storm over the North on Monday slips South to all areas later with the risk of a frost in calmer weather for a time on Monday night. Things stay very changeable though and renewed wind and rain soon sweeps in across all areas on Tuesday with the midweek period seeing a strong to gale Westerly flow with showers across the North and possibly more prolonged rain at times in the South as wave disturbances on the Polar front cross East on occasion.
GFS then trends towards quieter weather in the second week of it's run as High pressure builds across the UK from the West. The weather would become much calmer and probably colder too as overnight frost and fog which could become widespread and dense would probably fail to clear some days.
UKMO closes it's run this morning with an unstable and strong Westerly flow still blowing over the UK with showers or spells of rain, the latter most likely in the South. Temperatures will remain close to average.
GEM brings back the mild South-westerlies at the end of next week and weekend as the week's wet and windy Westerly weather type relaxes in the South to a dry if rather cloudy period with rain restricted more towards the NW, all this due to High pressure building over Europe.
NAVGEM looks more likely to maintain the windy and wet theme on past the term of it''s output this morning as further deep low pressure areas up to the NW push bands of wind and rain East and NE over the British Isles through next weekend. It would be relatively mild though.
ECM today is at ease with keeping wet and windy weather going through the end of next week, the weekend and beyond as the conveyor belt of Low pressure areas continue to feed across the Atlantic on the back of a continuing strong Jet flow over the UK. A few brief ridges could give a 12-24hr period of dry weather on occasion but this remains the exception to a very unsettled rule.
The GFS Ensembles show that there is still no particularly cold weather on offer from any member of the run today with a Westerly flow by far the most likely weather type across the UK. However, what is shown is a reduction in rainfall amounts in the second half of the output and should this mean High pressure moving into Southern Britain which s hinted at then fog and surface cold could develop over the UK should skies clear and the upper winds remain light later.
The Jet Stream shows the flow still remaining strong and on a collision course with the British Isles for the coming week before a definitive trend for it to move North of the UK in Week 2 in response to a strong rise of pressure to the South and SE late in the run.
In Summary it's just variations on a theme this morning with more wet and windy weather to be experienced for all over the coming week. There are subtle hints at a rise of pressure still taking place in a week or so to the SE with GFS leading the way on a full blown High pressure area transferring the weather into a chillier and foggy scenario later. However, trends towards this type of outcome are tentative at best from the other models with many preferring to keep the wet and windy theme in relatively mild conditions for at least a while into Week 2 as well.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset