"Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!

You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout

Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks!"

More than 400 years later, this still pretty much sums up the models in autumn.

Please keep any reference to "drowning the cocks" of a non-personal variety.

Usual rules.

Well after an opening to a thread like that this seems a good place to start.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on this morning's midnight output of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 1st 2013.

All models show a very unstable airflow over the UK with complex Low pressure systems moving across the UK from the West today and over the weekend. With little respite early next week either as a very strong Westerly flow with gales persists across Britain. There will be spells of heavy rain over all areas at times with sunshine and squally showers in between with little change to this to start next week either.

GFS then shows very little change through the rest of it's run with a brief quieter spell shown on the operational as an area of High pressure moves across for a time when fog and frost become likely. However, it isn't many days before rain and wind return again from the west with rising temperatures.

UKMO closes it's run today with a strong Westerly flow over all areas with a deep Low to the NNW. The strong winds are shown to carry troughs quickly East over the UK with spells of heavy rain and squally showers rushing on behind over all areas. Temperatures would be close to average.

GEM keeps things very windy and potentially quite stormy at times in the North with fast moving troughs carrying spells of wind and rain East across the UK in temperatures close to or somewhat above average in the South, largely offset by the wind though.

NAVGEM shows a less windy scenario but every bit as unsettled as Low pressure areas continue to cross East over Northern Britain with rain and showers at times in average temperatures.

ECM is also very unsettled today with higher pressure arriving at Day 10. Forth the majority of next week and the weekend to follow it would be very windy and unsettled with rain or showers in a gusty and strong Westerly wind. Temperatures would be close to average before becoming a little colder ahead of the ridge moving in from the West at the start of the new week.

The GFS Ensembles take up a very sine wave pattern in the South over the coming week before all areas see a massive spread between members in the second half of the run. Overall the pendulum swings towards an average above the long term mean but this will be offset by the strength of the mostly Westerly winds and rainfall which will continue off and on throughout the period.

The Jet Stream continues to power across the Atlantic and over the UK for the reliable future providing the catalyst for powerful storm systems to form close to Northern Britain. The pattern becomes a little more diffuse late in the run today with rather less evidence of the migration to the North shown in yesterday's output.

In Summary today the main difference is that the long fetch and very mild SW flow shown on yesterday's output for next week is much less marked this morning as less is made of the build of pressure to the South. As a result it's a case of deja-vu from the weekend's weather as further strong winds and troughs hurtle across the UK from the West on regular occasions bringing rain and squally showers in sequential order more or less throughout. Temperatures will be average or on the mild side though with all the wind it will not feel particularly warm especially when it is raining.

Transcrript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm 

Just a slight nudge up in the intensity of Saturday's storm this morning. Not a huge development but interesting nonetheless.

With last Monday's event, the models adjusted the pace of the system to something faster during the final 24 hours. If that happens again, the pressure gradient (tightness of isobars) will end up slightly greater (tighter), which could bring a few surprises.

If it hits during daylight hours, people could find it more noteworthy than last Monday's system in terms of what they observe directly. Classic weather irony!

Yes, SC. I noticed that this morning's Met Office forecast for wind speed and gusts for Saturday afternoon at my location had edged up to the same as had been forecast for Monday's event.

Still a very unsettled picture but at least the Euro high has been downgraded compared to some of the output from yesterday.

Thats no bad thing for coldies.

Morning all. November means one thing- I am back !! Groans all round then!  LOL

Anyways, a quick flick through the output this morning reveals a fairly prolonged wet, mild and windy spell is on the cards. Less of a trend for higher heights in Europe- but still very zonal and with the possibility of flooding becoming more of a problem as time progresses.

.....or for those who like rain

6z operational = completely zonal

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Still Looking Cooler Late November:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Still seeing signs of high pressure building in later in the month turning it cooler by final week to ten days.

Left to right

Sadly

Thanks Gavin

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png

Be a bit breezy in the early hours of Sunday morning

Yes, it shows up well here:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

I'm bathed in the >10C shading but there's a perhaps surprising amount of <5C shading over Scotland.

Having been to Yellowstone earlier this year, staying at an elevation of around 4,000 feet above sea level, it's interesting to me to see that they've just started having subzero maxes there. And over here, also at 4,000 feet:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/cairn-gorm-summit-moray#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1382572800

Good evening model watchers. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday November 1st 2013.

All models are fully supportive of a  very disturbed period lasting through the weekend and well into next week. Low pressure areas will trundle in and across the UK before moving away East late in the weekend. A small disturbance caught up on the polar front slips ESE on Monday giving Southern areas potential for some significant rain, given that the ground is currently saturated. A colder incursion of air is well supported for 12-24 hours as the Low and front exits East. Following hard on it's heels is a further trough attached to Low pressure well to the NW which carries rain and strong winds across the UK with a sunshine and showers weather type following in average temperatures. This keeps the weather pattern going into the middle of next week.

GFS then shows further changeable and windy weather at times though the South does become intercepted by a High pressure ridge from the South briefly later next week before rain and wind return for next weekend too.The second half of the run does show some drier periods lengthening as High pressure nudges up close to Southern Britain at times with light winds and overnight fog becoming an issue at times. However, the North would probably see further windy spells with outbreaks of rain as Low pressure crosses East to the North.

UKMO tonight keeps windy and unsettled weather going over and beyond the middle of next week with strong Westerly winds and troughs delivering ran quickly over the UK. They pass quickly though and would most likely be followed by a more showery regime in temperatures never far from average in the South but maybe a little colder than average in the North.

GEM this evening has a close resemblance to GFS at the same time juncture with the trend for High pressure from the South to infiltrate at least Southern Britain for a time later next week with a dry and rather cloudy WNW flow developing over Britain with more benign conditions than of late while never becoming very chilly.

NAVGEM is much more resilient against much in the way of High pressure from the South maintaining a strong West or WSW flow with rain at times in what would be very typical temperatures for early November.

ECM shows a very unsettled and windy week with storm potential at times before a toppling ridge of High pressure moves SE over the UK on Day 10 introducing a colder and quieter phase albeit probably brief with frost and fog patches overnight. 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a relatively mild prospect for the next few weeks with rain and strong winds at times throughout.

The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to move rapidly across the Atlantic and over the British Isles through the next week. Thereafter there still is a small degree of movement towards Northern Scotland possibly sufficient enough to lessen the power of the Atlantic monsoon at least for Southern Britain at times.

In Summary the weather remains very volatile over the UK as a strong Jet stream flows across the North Atlantic and the UK through the next week. Strong depressions to the North of the UK will continue to buffet most areas with strong winds reaching severe gale force at times and heavy rain too in temperatures close to average or a little above at times, though this offset by the strength of the wind. There are still some signs of rather drier weather moving across some areas later with less rainfall and temperatures remaining near average or somewhat colder, especially overnight when the risk of fog and frost by night might develop.

Good morning everyone. Here is today's account of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NSVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 2nd 2013.

All models show a deep depression crossing Ireland and Northern Britain through today and tonight. After a fair start a band of squally rain will push quickly East followed by squally showers and clear or sunny intervals in very strong winds with severe gales in places this evening and tonight. this weather eases slowly tomorrow as the Low eases away East. Later a wave depression will form down to the SW crossing Southern Britain over Sunday night with a spell of heavy rain here. Clearer, colder weather in the wake of today's storm over the North on Monday slips South to all areas later with the risk of a frost in calmer weather for a time on Monday night. Things stay very changeable though and renewed wind and rain soon sweeps in across all areas on Tuesday with the midweek period seeing a strong to gale Westerly flow with showers across the North and possibly more prolonged rain at times in the South as wave disturbances on the Polar front cross East on occasion.

GFS then trends towards quieter weather in the second week of it's run as High pressure builds across the UK from the West. The weather would become much calmer and probably colder too as overnight frost and fog which could become widespread and dense would probably fail to clear some days.

UKMO closes it's run this morning with an unstable and strong Westerly flow still blowing over the UK with showers or spells of rain, the latter most likely in the South. Temperatures will remain close to average.

GEM brings back the mild South-westerlies at the end of next week and weekend as the week's wet and windy Westerly weather type relaxes in the South to a dry if rather cloudy period with rain restricted more towards the NW, all this due to High pressure building over Europe.

NAVGEM looks more likely to maintain the windy and wet theme on past the term of it''s output this morning as further deep low pressure areas up to the NW push bands of wind and rain East and NE over the British Isles through next weekend. It would be relatively mild though.

ECM today is at ease with keeping wet and windy weather going through the end of next week, the weekend and beyond as the conveyor belt of Low pressure areas continue to feed across the Atlantic on the back of a continuing strong Jet flow over the UK. A few brief ridges could give a 12-24hr period of dry weather on occasion but this remains the exception to a very unsettled rule.

The GFS Ensembles show that there is still no particularly cold weather on offer from any member of the run today with a Westerly flow by far the most likely weather type across the UK. However, what is shown is a reduction in rainfall amounts in the second half of the output and should this mean High pressure moving into Southern Britain which s hinted at then fog and surface cold could develop over the UK should skies clear and the upper winds remain light later.

The Jet Stream shows the flow still remaining strong and on a collision course with the British Isles for the coming week before a definitive trend for it to move North of the UK in Week 2 in response to a strong rise of pressure to the South and SE late in the run.

In Summary it's just variations on a theme this morning with more wet and windy weather to be experienced for all over the coming week. There are subtle hints at a rise of pressure still taking place in a week or so to the SE with GFS leading the way on a full blown High pressure area transferring the weather into a chillier and foggy scenario later. However, trends towards this type of outcome are tentative at best from the other models with many preferring to keep the wet and windy theme in relatively mild conditions for at least a while into Week 2 as well.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin, Could do witha few days of dry weather, hope there's some brightness too

[quote=moabutah;545946]Accuweather's winter forecast for Europe.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940[/quote]

This is off topic, but to comment, they appear to be predicting an amazingly mild and snow-free winter across pretty much the whole of Europe.

There is clearly a very strong signal to be so adamant, and judging by the raging zonality we have at the moment, you would not back against this LRF at present.

There is an echo

Mid month HP seems to be the form horse from GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn34817.png

Unfortunately ECM and GEM have trended towards modelling a more robust PV with little sign of breaking down in the forseeable. That points towards the zonal train continuing until at least late November.

GFS still shows the PV becoming more unstable by mid-month, but it's not the most convincing of signals.

After some rather unsatisfactory days earlier next week - windy with spells of rain but nothing remotely extreme to study - ECM shows some more intense systems on the cards again, while GFS is more restrained and soon starts to build HP close to or over parts of the UK, leading to some calm, bright but chilly late-autumn days. The recent form horse puts ECM in favour, but on the other hand we haven't seen a good shift in the pattern for some time now, and seasonal longwave changes seem to often bring about some sort of change in the month of November.

There's always a silver lining though; the Arctic is able to bottle up and intensify what is already an impressive mass of cold air, which could lead to sensational results if and when the PV is split, displaced or disintigrates altogether. Long range CFS seems keen at least one of those three happening at some point this winter.