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beaufort
02 November 2013 07:48:05

Surprised nobody has flagged this up. Looking at the forecasts and the synoptic charts the wind over the next couple of days could well be as strong as last weeks storm. Coupled with heavy convective showers as cold unstable Arctic air gets mixed up there is also a risk of thunderstorms.


 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All


Estofex have a warning out for strong convective wind gusts.


http://www.estofex.org/

The Beast from the East
02 November 2013 08:09:22

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn181.png


Certainly the system has developed more over the last 24 hours. Not sure how sinister it will be but perhaps some trees made weak from last week might come down


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
beaufort
02 November 2013 08:29:01

Looking at the radar and the cold front approaching from the West has an intense squall line developing on its back edge, especially down towards the SW. We've just had a heavy convective shower move through.


Local shipping forecast is mentioning gusts to 50 Kts this afternoon.  

Gary L
02 November 2013 08:30:41

Judging by the GFS run this morning the Met Office warnings need to be extended to include areas much further North.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
02 November 2013 09:44:30

Judging by the wind arrows on the BBC forecast this morning it looks like our region will have the strongest winds late this evening and in the small hours. But from that forecast at least, it looks likely to be no more than the 'normal' autumn gale that often gets talked about with reference to more notable events.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Global Warming
02 November 2013 09:59:13

Certainly a windy afternoon and night to come but just looks to be a typical Autumnal gale. Could still see some damage though in a few places.


The models are quite consistent in the track and the central pressure of the low but the wind speeds vary quite a bit - this is probably down to just how tightly packed the isobars are near the centre of the low.


06z fax chart
Low already down to 978mb. Isobars are very tightly bunched to the SW of this system.
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVA89.TIF


GFS
Gusts of 75kph inland across the Midlands at 6pm
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1215.gif
Up to 85kph even inland (53mph) across some eastern parts of England at midnight
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1815.gif


NAE model
Mean winds speeds of 50mph along the coasts of south and west Wales and up the Bristol Channel at 6pm this evening. Gusts likely to reach 70mph in exposed areas I would think if this is right
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/11/02/basis06/ukuk/ismh/13110218_2_0206.gif


WRF-NMM model
Gusts along the Bristol Channel and the south coast early this evening of up to 100kph (60mph)http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013110200/nmm-11-17-1.png?02-05

Matty H
02 November 2013 10:01:44
It won't have to be more than just breezy here to beat last weekends pathetic effort. Maximum gust here from last weekend's "superstorm" was a meek 39mph. This evening looks much windier. Gusts to 60mph look quite possible here.
Gooner
02 November 2013 10:11:31

Beeb saying Bristol Channel will take the a hit


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Matty H
02 November 2013 10:12:34

Beeb saying Bristol Channel will take the a hit

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Looks for sure, but it'll be immediate coastal districts. Places like Portishead which face down will probably get battered.
beaufort
02 November 2013 10:31:58

Fairly big Spring tides peaking on Tuesday.


Gales forecast locally until at least Monday.

chiversa
02 November 2013 12:17:59

It won't have to be more than just breezy here to beat last weekends pathetic effort. Maximum gust here from last weekend's "superstorm" was a meek 39mph. This evening looks much windier. Gusts to 60mph look quite possible here.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


I hope your just taking about your area  99 mph off the isle of wight isnt that pathetic !


To  To quote  some of the damage in my area of Hampshire..


“The weather had the greatest impact on parts of rural Hampshire, Wiltshire and Dorset,” 


 


Around 100 roads across the county were partially or fully closed because of fallen trees brought down by winds gusting between 60mph and 80mph. Nearly 33mm of rain was recorded at Mottisfont during Sunday and Monday’s wet and stormy conditions.


http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/romseyadvertisernews/10779866.St_Jude_storm_leaves_a_trail_of_destruction/


Alan  

Matty H
02 November 2013 12:18:00
Good post, Ian.

It's already windier here now than at any stage last weekend.
Matty H
02 November 2013 12:27:02

It won't have to be more than just breezy here to beat last weekends pathetic effort. Maximum gust here from last weekend's "superstorm" was a meek 39mph. This evening looks much windier. Gusts to 60mph look quite possible here.

Originally Posted by: chiversa 


 


I hope your just taking about your area  99 mph off the isle of wight isnt that pathetic !


To  To quote  some of the damage in my area of Hampshire..


“The weather had the greatest impact on parts of rural Hampshire, Wiltshire and Dorset,” 


 


Around 100 roads across the county were partially or fully closed because of fallen trees brought down by winds gusting between 60mph and 80mph. Nearly 33mm of rain was recorded at Mottisfont during Sunday and Monday’s wet and stormy conditions.


http://www.thisishampshire.net/news/romseyadvertisernews/10779866.St_Jude_storm_leaves_a_trail_of_destruction/


Alan  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Quite obviously I'm talking about my area 🙄 clearly saying "here" three times wasn't enough of a clue.
Global Warming
02 November 2013 12:50:13

Latest position of the low at 12z is near the border between northern and southern Ireland around Sligo. Still looks to be about 978mb


http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013110212&size=large&lang=en&area=eur


Pressure reading from Mullingar at 12z was 979.6mb and from Castlederg 978.9mb.


Latest warning from the Irish Met Office. 130km/hr is 80mph


National Weather Warnings


STATUS ORANGE


Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Waterford


Becoming extremely windy at times today in coastal areas. West to southwest winds, veering west to northwest, will reach mean speeds of 60 to 75 km/hr with possible damaging gusts of 110 to 130 km/hr.


Issued:


Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00
Valid:


Saturday 02 November 2013 10:00 to Saturday 02 November 2013 18:00


Latest gust report from Valentia is 52knots (60mph)
http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp


Buoy Kinsale Energy (62023) off the Irish coast SE of Cork apparently has recently recorded a gust of 70knots (80 mph) 
http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

beaufort
02 November 2013 13:08:51

Squall line went through here about 15 minutes ago, very gusty and temp. dropped about 3C. Blue sky to my West, expecting squally showers behind the front. Latest local forecasts going for Gale F8 with gusts to 50Kts until Monday morning.

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
02 November 2013 13:35:42


Judging by the GFS run this morning the Met Office warnings need to be extended to include areas much further North.


Originally Posted by: Gary L 


And indeed they have. A yellow warning now in place for this evening for mainly coastal parts of N.Wales and NW England.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=nw


50-60mph, up to 70mph on exposed coasts. Still really just a regular autumn gale but one that is coming at exactly the wrong time wrt the bonfire events.  I don't know what the guidelines are but setting off fireworks in 60mph winds doesn't seem like a good idea. I imagine some events may be cancelled.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Matty H
02 November 2013 13:38:05
Predicted gusts to 70mph = yellow warning
Predicted gusts to 80mph = amber warning

Is 70 the threshold?

JamesB
02 November 2013 13:55:19
Thunder, lightning & heavy, squally rain currently in Colwyn Bay
Global Warming
02 November 2013 14:19:29

Predicted gusts to 70mph = yellow warning
Predicted gusts to 80mph = amber warning

Is 70 the threshold?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


The threshold does not in any way depend on the speed of the wind. It is purely based on impact and likelihood.


The current yellow warning has only a low impact rating. It needs to go to medium in order to trigger an amber warning.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice


The criteria for low impact for wind is:
Some branches or trees brought down.
Localised travel disruption.
Localised problems for high-sided vehicles on prone routes.
Drive with care, especially on exposed routes.
BE AWARE of possible debris being blown around.


The medium impact criteria are:
More widespread tree damage & other debris, slates etc dislodged from roofs.
Some minor structural damage possible.
Risk of injury from flying debris.
BE PREPARED for some travel disruption e.g. closed bridges.
Potential for some localised interruptions to power.


I would have thought we must be very close to the boundary for an amber alert but based on the description above I can see why we are still at yellow currently. There are already reports of several fallen trees blocking roads in Cornwall, Devon and SW Wales but these are quite isolated at present.

Matty H
02 November 2013 14:40:38
Fair enough. Subjective I agree, and I question whether there should be Amber warnings here. Winds already gusting well above last weekend and increasing all the time. Really starting to howl outside.
Matty H
02 November 2013 14:47:33
In fact it's getting really stormy now. The front door is starting to creak and the lock is whistling. Trees outside are really swinging around and light debris such as paper, and cardboard and plastic bottles from the stupid, lightweight recycling bags is hurtling around
Matty H
02 November 2013 14:53:05
Aberdaron on the llyn peninsula gusting to 80mph
idj20
02 November 2013 15:22:21

In fact it's getting really stormy now. The front door is starting to creak and the lock is whistling. Trees outside are really swinging around and light debris such as paper, and cardboard and plastic bottles from the stupid, lightweight recycling bags is hurtling around

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Worrying isn't it? I know we do like a bit of exciting weather to "liven things up" a bit but when it comes to property and even personal health then the novelty does wear thin. Hopefully the winds should abate slowly where you are later on in the evening.
  I suspect it isn't going to be as bad as that over here but I've got my eyes on a small low pressure system expected to affect the South Coast (including Kent) on Sunday night (around midnight). It's a very small compact system but is something that could make it very squally around here for a couple of hours. It may veer to the south of us and passes by harmlessly or it may veer north and give Kent another roundhouse punch in the face.
  Just have to see what the models make of that one this time tomorrow.


Folkestone Harbour. 
pnepaul
02 November 2013 15:45:40

Quite a fall in pressure here in Workington today - now down to 977mb

Phil G
02 November 2013 15:58:19

In fact it's getting really stormy now. The front door is starting to creak and the lock is whistling. Trees outside are really swinging around and light debris such as paper, and cardboard and plastic bottles from the stupid, lightweight recycling bags is hurtling around

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Worrying isn't it? I know we do like a bit of exciting weather to "liven things up"a bit but when it comes to property and even personal health then the novelty does wear thin. Hopefully the winds should abate slowly where you arelater on in the evening.
I suspect it isn't going to be as bad as that over here but I've got my eyes on a small low pressure system expected to affect the South Coast (including Kent) on Sunday night (around midnight). It'sa very small compact systembut issomething thatcouldmake itvery squally around herefor a couple of hours. It may veer to the south of us and passes by harmlessly or it may veer north and give Kent another roundhouse punch in the face.
Just have to see what the models make of that one this time tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Still pronged to hit your area Ian with mean winds near gale force for a short while, but it's such a close call if that low actually arrives 50 miles to your south. May even have some short lived effect round here for a while.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn368.png 

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