I see LRF's as being very similar to a visit to a clairvoyant: All good fun, but not in any way to be taken too seriously.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Saturday November 2nd 2013.

All models show a very strong Westerly flow through the coming week with incessant Westerly winds delivering spells of rain and showers from fast moving troughs and Low pressure areas moving quickly East across the Atlantic and generally to the North of the UK. Gales will be frequent and severe in places exposed to the West at times and prolonged dry weather will be at a premium in any one place. Temperatures however, will be close to average despite feeling rather cold at times out and about and perhaps more generally for a time on Monday.

GFS then shows next week as unsettled and windy too with some heavy rain before colder conditions spread East behind a cold front. High pressure builds from the SW then with some fine and dry weather briefly for the South. However, improvements are quite muted tonight as Westerly winds return with further rain at times for the remainder of the run with average temperatures.

UKMO closes it's run next weekend with a bank of Low pressure to the North of the UK with a very broad and strong Westerly airflow bringing further troughs and accompanying spells of rain East across the UK interspersed by sunshine and squally showers. It would feel somewhat chilly though temperatures should remain close to average.

GEM shows a windy and unsettled period throughout it's output tonight. high pressure does move up over france later in the run but not close enough to the UK to maintain a strong WSW flow with troughs carrying rain East across the area on numerous occasions over the run.

NAVGEM too is little different tonight with gales frequent and severe in places with spells of rain alternating with squally showers and sunny intervals.

ECM keeps the Autumn flag well and truly flying at full speed as the bandwagon of Low pressure and attendant wind and rain rattles across the UK throughout the run with just a few drier and brighter intervals at times. 

The GFS Ensembles show a continued Atlantic based pattern with a strong and blustery Westerly flow throughout the two weeks with some rain at times but with some drier interludes too and temperatures overall averageing very close to or at times a little above average.

The Jet Stream is showing almost incessantly blowing across the Atlantic and over the UK through the period with the migration North again less evident tonight through Week 2.

In Summary the weather looks like staying wet and windy with spells of rain and showers for all areas at times in strong and blustery Westerly winds. Though there is less evidence again tonight of the rise of pressure from the South the chances of a major pattern shift from the South rather than the colder North seems more likely.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

High Pressure still the favourite from the middle of the month and some lower temps giving us a more seasonal feel

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

Going by GFS it is... but ECM is less geared towards that sort of thing:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131102/12/ecmt850.240.png

That said, a chilly area of HP could move across the UK following on from the impending northerly 11th-12th November on that run.

GFS was hinting at a Northerly a couple of days ago but has since moved on

Hi Moomin

by any chance do you remember in 2010 at around the same time as now what where the long range forecasts saying then?

The ECM ensemble for London continues to show a trend towards normal temperatures for mid-November.

As often seems to be the case the GFS 12z looks somewhat out of sync with the ECM modelling.

Mild and changeable/wet week 1 and then trending cooler and drier.

Good morning. Here is the model review from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 3rd 2013.

All models continue with a very volatile and fast changing period of weather over the coming week. There will be spells of rain or showers throughout the week for all areas with details harder to pin down. However, all of Southern Britain will see a period of heavy rain tonight following early showers. Then after a drier interlude tomorrow another batch of wind and rain followed by showers rushes East through Tuesday and probably again on Thursday and over next weekend. Winds will often be strong with some gales in exposure towards the West and in the North. temperatures through the week will be generally close to average though it will be somewhat colder tomorrow before milder air from the West takes over again before midweek. Frost and fog is unlikely due to the strength of the wind and cloud cover over the week as a whole.

GFS then leads us through week 2 with a strong ridge developing over the UK as it moves SE  to be followed with another front and rain. The Higher pressure though does return on larger scale later breaking the current wind and rain pattern and drawing up some mild but dry weather from the South late in the run as the High slips towards SE Europe.

UKMO closes it's run this morning with an unstable flow with Low pressure to the North extending well out into the Atlantic indicating at least a few more unsettled and wet days from next Sunday following this coming wet and windy week. Temperatures are shown very close to average in frequent strong Westerly winds.

GEM shows unsettled and windy weather too lasting into the start of week 2 before High pressure builds either to the SE or SW and allows for Southern areas at least have a drier spell with less in the way of rain and wind and drier and brighter spells with it never becoming particularly cold.

NAVGEM is unsettled throughout with another depression making for another wet weekend as it drifts ESE across Southern Britain on Sunday. This could lead to a weak ridge moving in early in the following week once the Low departs away East on Monday.

ECM today continues to look very changeable next weekend and well into the second week with High pressure held at arms length down to the SW allowing rain bearing weather systems to cross East in the strong Westerly flow with rain and showers for all at times along with strong winds. A brief ridge is possible as we approach the close of the run though with the Day 10 profile as it is it would be unlikely to last long.

The GFS Ensembles if anything have pointed slightly towards a less mild outcome this morning with the mean for the run now shown very close to the long term mean. There is also a return to slightly more rainfall shown again towards the end of the run than was indicated at times yesterday suggesting that Low pressure may dictate the weather nationwide through the period now and not just in the North. The very mild end to the operational makes it an outlier at the end.

The Jet Stream pattern remains locked in it's course over the Atlantic and the UK for the reliable future with the less reliable time still indicating little variation in the track either.

In Summary the weather looks like staying basically very unsettled and often wet, certainly through this coming week. There are a few indicators which still suggest a rise of pressure close to the South could mute the effects of the unsettled weather for a time in Week 2 but in general it just puts the terminology of the pattern into 'changeable' rather than 'unsettled' with rainfall never far away from the South from most charts I've seen in week 2 too. Temperatures should remain relatively mild for this time in November but this will be offset by the strength of the wind at times, which could reach gale force at times and because of this, the other twin late Autumn perils of frost and fog will remain a scarce commodity.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Matthew you are such a happy fellow

There possibily can't be anything serious about the weather it's all just for fun

or do people really take it seriously

I do like to see lrf's, especially if the Meto the Express and the Mail et al do it and get it wrong

looking increasingly likely that the zonal train will fade after next weekend and the odds currently favouring a block developing west of the uk.

What would be the effect of a block to our West?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.png

As Doc pointed out, low temps all week for the North

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

Next Sunday gives us the coldest day of the season IMBY anyway.

more settled, especially so the further south and west you are. av temps with the possibility of cooler incusrions or frost and fog if it became a feature and drifted east/west.

A very interesting end to the GFS 6z. Looks to be setting up a notable cold spell. One or two hints that things could get colder as we go further into November. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

That is indeed very interesting, pity it's at T+384 :(

It could well be gone on the next run of course, but if something like that is around at T+120 then obviously it would have to be taken seriously. The zonal train has to hit the buffers at some point.

I'd hate the Daily Express to be correct but an early taste of winter would be great!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.png

Block to the West extending to Greenland