Thanks Martin
as u say often a wet and windy week to come with winds always from the west in the reliable
The westerly train continues
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72
uote=GIBBY;546317]
Good morning. Here is the model review from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 3rd 2013.
All models continue with a very volatile and fast changing period of weather over the coming week. There will be spells of rain or showers throughout the week for all areas with details harder to pin down. However, all of Southern Britain will see a period of heavy rain tonight following early showers. Then after a drier interlude tomorrow another batch of wind and rain followed by showers rushes East through Tuesday and probably again on Thursday and over next weekend. Winds will often be strong with some gales in exposure towards the West and in the North. temperatures through the week will be generally close to average though it will be somewhat colder tomorrow before milder air from the West takes over again before midweek. Frost and fog is unlikely due to the strength of the wind and cloud cover over the week as a whole.
GFS then leads us through week 2 with a strong ridge developing over the UK as it moves SE to be followed with another front and rain. The Higher pressure though does return on larger scale later breaking the current wind and rain pattern and drawing up some mild but dry weather from the South late in the run as the High slips towards SE Europe.
UKMO closes it's run this morning with an unstable flow with Low pressure to the North extending well out into the Atlantic indicating at least a few more unsettled and wet days from next Sunday following this coming wet and windy week. Temperatures are shown very close to average in frequent strong Westerly winds.
GEM shows unsettled and windy weather too lasting into the start of week 2 before High pressure builds either to the SE or SW and allows for Southern areas at least have a drier spell with less in the way of rain and wind and drier and brighter spells with it never becoming particularly cold.
NAVGEM is unsettled throughout with another depression making for another wet weekend as it drifts ESE across Southern Britain on Sunday. This could lead to a weak ridge moving in early in the following week once the Low departs away East on Monday.
ECM today continues to look very changeable next weekend and well into the second week with High pressure held at arms length down to the SW allowing rain bearing weather systems to cross East in the strong Westerly flow with rain and showers for all at times along with strong winds. A brief ridge is possible as we approach the close of the run though with the Day 10 profile as it is it would be unlikely to last long.
The GFS Ensembles if anything have pointed slightly towards a less mild outcome this morning with the mean for the run now shown very close to the long term mean. There is also a return to slightly more rainfall shown again towards the end of the run than was indicated at times yesterday suggesting that Low pressure may dictate the weather nationwide through the period now and not just in the North. The very mild end to the operational makes it an outlier at the end.
The Jet Stream pattern remains locked in it's course over the Atlantic and the UK for the reliable future with the less reliable time still indicating little variation in the track either.
In Summary the weather looks like staying basically very unsettled and often wet, certainly through this coming week. There are a few indicators which still suggest a rise of pressure close to the South could mute the effects of the unsettled weather for a time in Week 2 but in general it just puts the terminology of the pattern into 'changeable' rather than 'unsettled' with rainfall never far away from the South from most charts I've seen in week 2 too. Temperatures should remain relatively mild for this time in November but this will be offset by the strength of the wind at times, which could reach gale force at times and because of this, the other twin late Autumn perils of frost and fog will remain a scarce commodity.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm