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12z GFS winding a bomb up , a bit different to the 6z

This sort of synoptic set up has been known to throw up the odd wintry surprise here and there in the past. 

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 3rd 2013.

The General Situation. The UK lies under a unstable airflow due to low pressure to the North of the UK. Disturbances running East over Southern Britain at times too this week could give rise to some persistent rain at times here, one such feature this evening and tonight in the South, another on Wednesday and perhaps another late in the week. Outside of this Westerly winds and scattered showers look likely and after a cool day tomorrow temperatures will return to average or slightly above average with strong winds at times almost anywhere in association with Low pressure areas as they cross.

GFS then shows very changeable conditions through part 2 of it's run with the emphasis on slightly longer drier spells across the UK as ridges cross East between the low pressure'a Temperatures will be largely close to the seasonal average and if any of the ridges pass overnight then some patchy frost and fog might develop.

UKMO closes tonight's run with Low pressure bearing down on Western Britain again from the NW with rain and showers feeding back in from the Atlantic on blustery SW winds and average temperatures.

GEM shows a continuation of relatively mild but strong SW winds with spells of rain moving through at times alternating with somewhat brighter and drier spells.

NAVGEM gives the UK another bad weekend weatherwise with Low pressure slipping across the UK over the weekend providing plenty of showers and rain at times in blustery winds and temperatures around the average.

ECM also shows a changeable and windy spell continuing on over next weekend and beyond but with a notable rise of pressure across the South for a time at the end of the run offering a drier period down here. Nevertheeless, before that happens there will be plenty of rain and showers to be shared by all in temperatures close to average.

The GFS Ensembles look very unsettled again tonight with average temperatures for many and rain and wind at times for all areas at times over the period perhaps more bias towards the South at times.

The Jet stream continues to be modelled to flow over the Atlntic Ocean and across the UK for the foreseeable future.

In Summary at the expense of sounding like a broken record there remains little sign of any significant change to the weather over the next two weeks. There also remains little sign of any cold weather for anyone after the cold blip over the next 24 hours has passed. With winds in the West most areas will achieve average temperatures at least for much of the time, sometimes offset by the strong breeze. A few drier and brighter periods will occur at times and these will be most likely in the South.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

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Certainly something colder mid month ................at last

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Apart from it being GFS and T336 then you may have a point

Sooner or later the pattern will change but to what is the key. Some HP would be good

C'mon Dave let me have some hope,

There has been no sign at all of anything in the charts ..........even frosts are rare

Atlantic high perhaps extending to greenland starting to be a consistent theme on the long range GFS now. perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel

The Polar Vortex does look to be relaxing as we progress through November.

With HP signalled to be in the Atlantic and/or near/across the UK (details sketchy at this range), our best bet for a cold spell looks to be heights rising to our NW, with either an upstream ridge building there or retrogression of HP from the Atlantic/UK taking place.

Until if and when something of that nature unfolds, it's a continuation of the long run of westerlies, with some milder air midweek before chillier air returns for the weekend, when there's the risk of another small but vicious feature tracking across the south - very low certainty on that one though.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday November 4th 2013.

All models show another week of Westerly winds and changeable weather with spells of rain on Eastward moving fronts crossing over the UK periodically, In between breezy Westerly winds will bring a mix of sunshine and showers and overall teamperatures will remain close to average for early November.

GFS then brings another area of low pressure across the UK at the weekend with spells of rain and showers making for another disappointing weekend across Britain with prolonged dry weather at a premium. through the rest of it's run changes will be slow with a changeable theme continuing with further rain for all at times. However having said that there will be some longer drier spells developing in the South despite breezy conditions continuing as pressure becomes rather higher than of late down here with temperatures always average if not somewhat above at times.

UKMO today shows Low pressure crossing East over the South of Britain on Sunday with strong winds and heavy rain a feature for a time again. Although no access to their 168hr chart I would suggest it probably shows drier and brighter conditions under a ridge of High pressure will take place early next week when it could become somewhat colder.

GEM does indeed show such a ridge crossing the UK next Monday when drier and brighter weather will be shared for all for a time. However, Northern areas quickly return to unsettled and windy weather at times but with a large High developing over Northern France Southern areas will become dry and rather mild later next week.

NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across Britain seeing us out of next weekend and into next week. Some rain must be expected from this pattern, chiefly towards the North and West but with pressure in excess of 1025mbs developing across the South next week any rain will be patchy and drizzly in nature in the South with high pressure to the South weakening any fronts. It would be relatively mild too.

ECM today also shows higher pressure developing close to Southern or SW Britain next week with rain bearing fronts held more actively towards the North of the UK with longer drier spells in the South where only occasional lighter rain seems likely between dry and fine weather with the risk of patchy mist, fog and slight frost.

The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary bunch this morning with very average temperatures maintained through the period with occasional rainfall shown for all at times. With winds in the West for most of the time cold weather still seems a long way away from any output this morning.

The Jet Stream continues to show little change to it's current trajectory over the next week or so offering therefore little respite in the Atlantic feed of air around High pressure well to the South and low pressure to the North.

In Summary the weather remains very unsettled through this week with plenty of rain and showers about over the UK through the period. All models show very breezy Westerly winds for the most part. In Week 2 conditions look to be characterized as more 'changeable' rather than 'unsettled' with more occasional rain rather than frequent rain events taking place, especially in the South in response of High pressure building close to the South. With this happening there seems little chance of any cold weather at all with just the risk of patchy fog and ground frost over the South should High pressure making landfall over these areas next week but with daytime temperatures recovering well.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

thanks gibby, i read your post everyday and i very much enjoy them very much, sorry for off topic, i dont post much but just like to say thanks to thos who post all year round,

Todays ECM mean chart for Day 10 is about as far away from any prospective cold that you can get in the UK. At least rainfall in the South will be less heavy and widespread than of late.

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Yep. The chances of a whole November of blustery, wet but relatively average temperatures gain momentum.
It could well be Decemeber before anything remotely cold and seasonal arrives (not a forecast, just a hunch).
Cue the Daily Express . . . 

Interestingly the ECM ensemble mean has been consistent for several days now in bringing us back to average to slightly cool conditions for London: highs around 8C and lows around 4-5C.   That suggests westerly to north-westerly flows rather than the recent south-to-west quadrant.

That chart could be from any winter Pre 2007!  Still, we will see how the month progresses but at the moment no real sign of any change on the cards - perhaps slightly fresher at times but no real cold snap anywhere in sight. Perhaps November is going to be another September with around average temperatures?

Yep quite mild with less rain- gets a thumbs up from me

Think that looks fairly nailed too, may get tweeked to some extent but the broad overall pattern seems very credible to me.

Indeed. It is a very zonal pattern. With time it appears that high pressure will edge closer to the UK drying things up a little, especially in the south and southwest.

I am sure many members on this forum would like to see a drier, milder and calmer winter this year. After the last few years I expect many of us have seen enough of miserable cold wintry mixes for now.

Would be a great cure for insomnia.