There is, but it's November in a mobile westerly regime with the jet across the UK.
I wouldn't expect anything different and if I was to propose a headline for Novemebr so far it would be 'normal'.
To say 'plenty of cold air in the North' may have those in low-lying populated areas of the North reaching for the boots and gloves, but this is not the case - for now.

Weather Sattelite APP on Windows 8.1 shows Nav Canada sending Turbulence to Northern Scotland...

Stunning temps, well above average fo a vast area of Europe

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Deepest FI but looking much more seasonal

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

Yes the end of November cold spell being picked up again. Must be a chance of this happening now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

Add those charts into a rapidly dropping AO, and NAO to a lesser extent, and maybe just maybe FI is onto something... we shall see of course.

A. 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday November 6th 2013.

All models show a Westerly flow across the UK with a front straddling the UK with strong winds, rain and drizzle in very mild conditions in the South and cold and drier conditions to the North with scattered showers in the West. Tomorrow and Friday will see this colder and clearer air extend to all areas with sunshine and showers, prolonged in places. On Saturday a ridge of High pressure crosses the UK with a drier and brighter interlude before a warm front crosses the UK on Sunday with a spell of drizzly rain and milder air flooding NE over all areas. By Monday the mild weather will be well established to start the day before a weakening cold front moves ESE through the day with another spell of drizzly rain followed by clearer and colder air again by evening.

GFS then brings a better spell of weather across the UK with a few showers over the North and some mist, fog and frost possible in the clearer South. Soon after midweek the North becomes wet and mild again in strong Westerly winds while things remain more benign over Southern England and Wales. then after a short spell of rain on a cold front crosses all areas another spell of colder NW'lies brings rather cold and bright weather again with some showers in the North as we start the second week with some frost possible overnight. Very late in the run a strong pressure build to the NW brings a plunge in temperatures to cold conditions for all with some sleet or snow showers to the North and East with widespread frosts developing as well as freezing fog possibilities by the term of the run.

UKMO closes it's run with a WNW flow over the UK with scattered showers over Northern and Western Britain. Temperatures would be close to average and possibly rather cold in the North where scattered showers could be wintry over high ground. Much of Southern Britain could be mostly dry.

GEM keeps High pressure anchored close to SW Britain through next week with WNW winds blowing a lot of cloud and some rain to the North but far less rain than we have been used to of late in the South. Temperatures would be close to average overall with any chill mostly felt in the North.

NAVGEM is virtually identical to GEM with a benign and cloudy WNW flow around High pressure to the SW carrying a lot of cloud but little in the way of rain across the UK in average temperatures.

ECM tonight also shows a strong build of pressure to the West and SW next week which in essence would bring cold, settled and foggy conditions through next week to the South with some wintry showers for a time in the NE. It's invasion into UK airspace is limited however, as it is quickly squeezed South towards the far South where there may well be some fog patches and cold weather overnight while Northern regions become breezier and mild again with some rain in the far North.

The GFS Ensembles look very ordinary this evening with a lot of typical but unexciting weather across the UK over the two weeks. Temperatures look like maintaining average levels throughout the period and maybe a little above in the South at times. It comes as no surprise that the operational I have described above is a cold outlier at the end of the run with no realistic support on offer and is therefore likely to be removed by the morning. What has more support is an increase in precipitation amounts towards the end of the run in the South.

The Jet Stream remains focused on blowing across the Atlantic and across the UK for the forseeable future. It undulates North and south at times and moves North temporarily next week as pressure builds to the SW. Late in the run the flow troughs to the South of the UK which is accountable for the increase of rainfall in the South late in the run.

In Summary despite a mouth watering end to a GFS operational run for cold weather fans there is very little else for them to cheer about in an otherwise benign and anticyclonic pattern beyond this weekend. The position of the High is instrumental in determining the air masses over the UK and a mix of tropical maritime air or polar maritime air is likely over the UK with a lot of cloud overall and just limited amounts of fog and perhaps frost in the extreme South due to the refusal of High pressure to move sufficiently North. The further North you travel away from the far South the incidence of rain and mild Westerly winds increases though this could be interrupted at times by rather colder and showery NW winds at times.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Yes there's a chance but deep in FI anything can happen.  The ensembles show the Op was almost without support at the end of the run for 850 hPa and 2m temperatures:

ECM 12z mean puts the main LP cell north of Scandinavia by T+240, which is at least one part of the jigsaw puzzle in place

What I have noticed in recent runs is the large strong HP cell in mid-Pacific. Here at its strongest at T+120 but there in some form throughout

That I think is quite unusual.  Certainly in the strongly zonal spells in the Atlantic in the past there tended to be equally strong zonality across the Pacific.

Some signals coming in now on the ECM and GFS for high pressure to start to track towards greenland circa 240h, it does look like the atlantic may slow down during the 2nd half. Of course rising height towards greenland doesn't guarantee cold weather in the UK, but its a start at least.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png

Indeed , hopefully an end to the constant LP's

Looks like northern Scotland could see some stormy weather early next week as a very deep low passes to the north of the UK.

It's not set in stone as the windiest weather could miss mainland UK altogether (e.g. GFS), but GEM for example looks more than breezy...

This morning's ECM FI seems to hint quite heavily at a northerly blast, which has been an increasing trend in the last couple of days in my view.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

GFS a bit different though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 7th 2013.

All models show a somewhat showery Westerly flow across the UK now that the trough across the SE this morning continues to move away SE. This showery pattern lasts through until Saturday when a trough swings East and winds turn NW briefly with a ridge crossing East on Saturday night perhaps permitting a frost in inland locations as winds fall light. On Sunday a warm front crosses NE over Britain with dull and misty weather with drizzly rain for a time. Sunday night and Monday morning are then shown to be very mild and dull with another band of light rain pulling SE through the day on a weakening cold front to re-introduce colder and fresher conditions from the NW with scattered showers over the North.

GFS then shows quite benign conditions with Westerly winds over the UK around High pressure just to the South. Temperatures would recover to average or perhaps above in sheltered Eastern areas though the North could be subject to thicker cloud and occasional rain at times while the South might see patchy fog at night should skies clear and winds fall light. Then the pattern remains locked for a good portion of the later run with mostly dry and rather cloudy conditions predominating in the South while the North sees occasional spells of wind and rain. Temperatures would remain close to or above average until the end of the run when pressure building North over the Atlantic brings the threat of much colder air flooding South over all areas with rain and wintry showers and frosts at night right at the end of the run.

UKMO shows next Wednesday as quite quiet with High pressure close to the SW with an Atlantic feed of winds ushering in a lot of cloud from the West with some occasional rain to the NW while the South sees dry weather. Temperatures would not be far from average at this point.

GEM today shows a cool NW feed across Britain next Wednesday with milder air soon rounding the Northern flank of the High pressure to the South and bringing a period of mostly cloudy but dry weather in the South but occasional light rain over the North at times. Right at the end of the run winds freshen markedly especially in the North with gales and rain rushing East across these areas. Further South a cold front would bring a period of rain and wind followed by a sunshine and shower mix for all after Day 10.

NAVGEM brings another brief injection of milder air from the West towards midweek quickly followed by unsettled and wet weather spreading across all areas from the NW later as Low pressure sinks ESE over Northern areas. By next Thursday colder air is filtering South across Scotland as winds swing NE and as High pressure builds North through the Atlantic this looks destined to flood South over all areas late next week with wintry showers and frosts at night looking likely after the term of the run.

ECM shows a fast alternating pattern of milder and cloudy weather mixed with spells of colder and brighter weather with a NW breeze and showers, wintry over the North at times. It too shows a chance of colder air sinking South over the second weekend as high pressure builds North through the Atlantic with wintry showers developing from the North behind a spell of wind and rain for all.

The GFS Ensembles show a changeable pattern with rain at times for all areas with the heaviest rainfall to the North. Temperatures will be largely normal or somewhat above as uppers remain above average in the South for much of the run. Very late in the output there is an embryonic trend towards a pressure build North through the Atlantic which is supported by other output too and this could open the floodgates to the North for a big dip in temperatures between Day 10 and 15 depending on which model you view.

The Jet Sream continues to undulate over and around the vicinity of the British Isles over the coming week or so. Later on although reliability and accuracy falls away there is a tendency for the flow to want to shift further South and if this was to verify in a large way things could look rather different synoptically in a couple of weeks time.

In Summary this morning while this coming week remains as it has looked for some days now with High pressure building up towards the South with rain and wind becoming more infrequent the further South in the UK you go. The longer term output is looking a little more interesting this morning. It appears that High pressure may build North across the Atlantic later next week and beyond, perhaps towards Greenland. Should this verify, and it is still a very embryonic sign this morning the weather in 10-14 days time would shift towards much colder weather than we have sees so far this Autumn with the risk of sharp frosts greatly increased and the incidence of sleet or snow, in the form of showers also greatly enhanced over Northern Britain. We just need the following days outputs to grow this trend and maintain it's support throughout the various models and their ensembles.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin

signal of westerly of sorts continues maybe a little less rain for the south

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Trouble is Q if u look at last nights fax T120 it looks like a push of the reset button of more of the same.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

by the way I hope u right.

;547522]

Some signals coming in now on the ECM and GFS for high pressure to start to track towards greenland circa 240h, it does look like the atlantic may slow down during the 2nd half. Of course rising height towards greenland doesn't guarantee cold weather in the UK, but its a start at least.