Hello everyone, it's been nearly another month since I last posted on this Model Output Discussion.
It is interesting that GFS is sticking to UK possible return of NNW or NW and then NE flow of Arctic Low Pressre, come the period 18th November right through to the 23rd November that today's 12z GFS run is offering some colder arctic winds and some sleet and hill snow showers and mix of rain but also snow showers for Scotland N Ireland North England and bring them all to the South of UK.
At time of writing, I still have to see Sunday t144h UKMO chart 12z run, hopefully it will match GFS- by then still average to slightly above temps across all of auK on the Sunday.
So much Blocking a highs mid North Atlantic and Western Central Europe, Meditteranean SE France W Italy Low Pressure quite helpful, and the Deep Low Pressure over Svalbard and Norwegian Sea plus over Iceland and further Deep Low's moving north in far NW N Atlantic to West and SW Central Greenland by 19-22nd November, the Deep SE diving Low move SE from Iceland to North and NW UK SE wards from Iceland and propelled deep SE arctic Norwegian SEa Liw over Near Svalbard and NW of Norway.
Large WNW N Atlantic High 15th to 18th persist with blocking in place- I just hope that through this week the UKMO and GFS continue with the current week weather of West to ENE bendy areas of North Atlantic E SE Canada NE USA NW through N Atlantic Areas of Low's move through Iceland - bring heavy rain Wednesday 13th p.m.,and Thursday14th a.m. Heavy Rain then cold NW winds, then cold Thursday day and night for Central and East Britain this day 14th Nov. 2013.
High pressure build strongly Friday 15th over Central E Europe and UK W Europe with SE tracking alow through France on Thurs 14th and Fri 15th Nov, that then spins and moves SSE over South Central France to W Italy and Western Med., during that time and through to 17th Nov.
A Number of De Lows affecting Svalbard and West a North Norwegian/ SE Arctic Sea and other Deep Lows moving Through E Canada to SW Grrenland.
There is very cold Arctic pool of air over Greenland with some High pressure during later this week and early in 3rd week November, some Warm air advection with a Polar Vortex placed over West and SW Greenland via E Canada and Far NW Atlantic, similar Vortex of Svalbard and SE arctic Sea Low Pressure during 2nd and third week of this month is to bring the UK cold NW to SE sliding Low from to cross the UK during 19th to 22nd Nov. 2013.
I hope we get agreed UKMO 12z run with GFS model throughout this week.
We live hope in NW Europe, it may occur.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Â
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.