cool - if you do 12z & 00z suites... not the 06z & 18z ..

S

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

Which leads to a blocked situation

The ensembles are now starting to take on 'that look'

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

is it possible, despite some recent LRF's and a low key METO office approach (reasons understood) that we may be on the brink of something special here. not today or tomorrow but this side of end of year.

whilst i read the reports on all the forums, to be fair unless I read it on the met 3-5 day forcast or here any one of the many Beeb met forcasters predicting - all taken with a pinch of salt - excuse the pun.

Its a bit like Sanata you want to believe but deep down you know the outcome  - always.

presumably only the gefs neil - the op still awaits an upgrade

the new ecm ens due for implementation soon and will increase to 91 vert levels !!!

Wetter has finally updated the ECM 0z and the 240h is a real beauty the best of the Autumn/winter so far.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

The progression from the 192Z chart shows a rapid rise in SLP from mid Atlantic to Greenland, which given enough time and space to enforce would allow a strong Nly flow to flood down the UK...

At last the model output it showing some interesting charts (for snow lovers).

Agreed.  I think after the long drawn out winter last year - im viewing these runs with NO desperation for cold weather - but instead with a love for how the science of the skies develops these features.  Its given a whole new apprecation for cold weather.  Would love it to arrive though. Its like im watching these charts with a clear head.

Couldn't have put it better myself.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png

A harsh frost for a few places

Pah! Lightweights...

I do get the feeling we *may* be setting up quite a prolonged cold spell, with a build of pressure keeping it cold after the initial plunge.

For those interested, I may blog about this on my Flash page later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Chilly end to the Met/o 12z.

Off-topic, but I have to disagree with those that have described last winter as "drawn-out". Yes, March was unusually cold and did I think return a lower CET figure than any of the three official winter months did, but the real cold, at least here didn't start until the tail end of the winter. It was hardly a 62/63 type winter when the really harsh cold went on for months.

I think the fact that it was so cold in spring gave the impression of things been long drawn out David. Don't forget that for many people winter is grim regardless of the actual weather and that is largely down to the lack of daylight so when things don't even warm up in spring it creates a perception of gloom

I disagree with David.  It was snowing in January - and snowed most weeks through til the end of March.  Even then spring didnt arrive until May.  Bluebells are the tell tail sign of Spring.  They usually arrive by me for about 10th-20th April... this year it was around 10th May before they bloomed (a fantastic bloom)  Thats 5 months of winter... not to mention November and december being typical gloomy and wet, with frosts, gave us around a 7 month Winter in my books.

I was still walking in metre deep snow around the 20th April (my birthday) in Wales.

144h on the ECM is a very snowy chart across most of the UK. Snow showers speading well inland and some more persistant rain, sleet or snow in the south. 

The black lines are fronts and the red area is the snow risk. Of course it probably won't pan out this way, but taking that chart literally would imply some heavy snow locally to that area coming in from the NW. Wales, and SW england are more likely to see just rain though.  

EDIT: on a more substantial level the PV is really starting to break up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111312/ECH101-144.GIF?13-0

Yes agreed that is well put indeed. After many years of searching in vain for an inch of slush we really were treated to some significant events from 2010, and now it's a case of 'how severe can it get', not 'are we ever going to see it snow'.

Indeed before the "modern era" ended this place would of been in meltdown @ the ECm run 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

2010 was complete crap here very little snow and only a weeks worth of decent frost