And of course they'll be right - on the chaos side anyway

Thank you Martin.

Excellent Analysis read on your website.

Might get some sleet out of it.Sometime  Monday/Tuseday/Wednesday...

well postioned block on the 06z, but uppers not really good enough for snow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

Matt Hugo tweeting that looking blocked through till 15th Dec.

beginning to look really interesting for later on in week 2 and beyond. enjoy the hors d'oevres next week but dont worry too much about the white stuff. plenty of time yet ..........................

Agree Nick, I think next week is just the starter, reloads in GFS and ECM now

That GFS T+144 chart is quite similar to the UKMO chart, hmmm

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 16s

This 're-load' pattern from the 00Z ECM does have some support from the EC ensembles for next weekend - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif … #uncertainty

re-load = phrase of the day lol

Here's today video update;

A Cold Start To December?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Longer range models (the excellent JMA specifically) suggesting nblocked conditions going on into the first half of December.

I'd rather have this blocking a few weeks later as unless we can source from the Arctic, Europe is still too warm. This "re-load" is the best bet for those of us down south

Never mind the specifics of temps or precipitation next week - what excites me is that just about every link I click on shows milder air being pumped northwards by low pressure somewhere in the central or western Atlantic or on the east coast of N America.

That may be the driving force behind these hints of northern blocking extending well into December.

Now that does get me excited. 

I'm not particularly concerned about the lack or otherwise of any strat warming over the N Pole - to me that is driven by mild surface air being drawn northwards by these lows and then rising upwards. I mean the heat that warms the strat has to come from the surface in the first place, so surface charts are plenty good enough for me.

dear mr seasonal bounty, i refer you to my post some time ago where you said there was no cold in the offing. i note that yet again you are attempting to spoil our fun !  fwiw, i think you are wrong again.

cant believe i left 'reload' off my list of words from last thursday !

not necessarily - the top of the strat is not as cold as lower down. i assume that has to do with solar input. after all, our heat doesnt come from underneath (in general). last time i looked the sun was the other side of the stratosphere to me.

there are occasions when warmth from the trop upwells into the strat.

A very fair point. I shouldn't be so simplistic. Apologies.

Still, with these kinds of 500 hPa charts being churned out, I guess issues around strat warming and its effects at the surface aren't too important right now. (Takes cover ...)

We are all going to certainly notice a difference by Monday evening:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-1-78.png?12

Flatter high so far:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-0-96.png?12

Less cold for the South but still cold up North:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-1-108.png?12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

And still no frost for me yet

Before the cold air digs south again:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-1-114.png?12

Reckon there is a disturbance in there:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-1-120.png?12

A *chance* of some white stuff down South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

Wednesday looks to be a cold day

High toppling over drying things up, still cold though:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfs-1-126.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111512/gfsnh-1-126.png?12

The cold pool seems to be narrowing with each run, still covers the UK though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Cold enough