I wouldn't be so sure, the latest runs are suggesting much better uppers. And notice we have the scandi low, which will do an excellent job of freezing scananavia up. That end chart would have uppers of between -4C and -6C I would recon. 

Have you checked around the Exeter area? It's still there afaik

I was thinking more, end of february 2005. 

Actually I still prefer that cold spell to 2010, not because it was as severe (and I do think the UKMO looks much less severe than 2010) but as a child it was my first proper snow experience, plus I was just old enough to use the models to predict it myself. 

Do we have a link Beast to those ukmo uppers >72? would be handy as 72 seems to be my  limit

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1007

My analysis: The uppers have lowered, grass minimums are at their maximum, low dew-points have all but dried up, the position on calm conditions has strengthened, but there remains a split over where convergence zones might be.

But this weeks snyoptics are more reminisant of feb 2005, than dec 2010. And feb 2005 will always be my favourite winter. Remember people, I was smaller back then, so the snow appeared deeper. 

actally, i just had a trawl through 2010's evolution and its not nearly the same !

I'm expecting more twists on this one yet.  FI certainly much closer than we usually see.  there is simply too much movement model to model and run to run.

All outcomes seem plausible, but the models are struggling to come to terms with the evolution.

Depends on where you were, doesn't it? Here on Sheppey Feb 2005 blew 2010 out of the water in terms of sheer amount of snow, if not temperatures (2010 saw a couple of ice days, 2005 had none). 2005 saw snow falling for 14 days in a row and snow lay on the ground for over a fortnight. The same couldn't be said of 2010 here, which saw fewer days of snow cover and lower depths to boot.

I can see where those drawing comparisons to 2010 are coming from but one major difference between then and now is the pattern over the pole. Back then it was more condusive to high-level blocking (as in pressure was high up there already) and the upper blocking high was forecast to form much further north than the current cold spell's one will be. That meant it formed north of the jet and sank southwards, drawing some frigid air with it. This block is essentially a displaced Azores High and as such deep cold air will be restricted to whatever gets pulled down by the initial northerly plunge to the east. That's not to say it won't be cold (it will) but at the moment it doesn't look anywhere near as severe as 2010 was.

The good news (for cold fans, anyway) is that at this time of year solar input is minimal and, given clear skies and high pressure, temperatures will readily fall away to just above freezing by day. Even if we don't have deep cold aloft, it can still be pretty chilly at the surface! At this time of year the only way to get sustained mild weather is for a maritime wind from a SW'ly quarter to be blowing...

But you will find february 2005 cold spell strikingly similar to the model output! Best place for archives is wetter3.de, wetterzentrale is only every 12 hours and only 850s and slps. 

It wasn't - 2005 saw a cold high over Russia. The Azores High ridged northwards and the two merged, with all that Russian coldness propelled westwards. 2010 also saw a cold high, this time over the pole rather than Russia.

You can see the seeds of the 2005 cold spell on this archive chart - note the high east of Scandinavia. It's north of the jet and over the next couple of days it built as the Azores High ridged northwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050219.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050221.gif

In layman's terms, you can say that there's a good chance of a notable cold spell on the way when there's a cold high lurking to the north or NE and there's a ridge building northwards over the Atlantic towards Greenland. That link of the Azores High to a polar high is how the majority of our notable cold spells start.

Contrast that with the currently forecast setup:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

We have the high ridging in the Atlantic alright - but there's not a cold high for it to connect to! The Russian high is a warm-cored one, it's on the wrong side of the jet and as such you have to rely on that initial cold burst to the east to give us our cold spell - a chilly breeze rather than a roaring torrent of cold air as we had in 2005 and 2010 (and, indeed, in 1991 and in several of the 80s winters).

Q - you obviously weren't living in these parts in Feb 2005 - which is memorable only for being the dullest, least memorable, cold spell in modern times

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111612/ECH1-120.GIF?16-0

ECM out to 120

The one benefit of this, is the increased activity of the scandi low. It sort of solves the warm uppers problem, but it also ruins the synoptics in the process. Although having said that I think the next ECM chart will push that high north, and develop some sort of easterly. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111612/ECH1-144.GIF?16-0

HP didnt push North, still a cool/cold flow though

Look further west, you'll see that another cold shot is taking shape!

[quote=Retron;550628]And as an example of what I was saying earlier - have a look at this ensemble member. A high pops up near the pole at 240 - guess what happens next? :P

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1[/quote]

Ideal, yellow and greens cover Greenland , putting us in a cold flow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111612/ECH1-192.GIF?16-0

HP set to dominate , frosty nights, cold days

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111612/ECH1-240.GIF?16-0

HP all the way, hopefully the temps will lower as time passes

Look at the cold uppers in Eastern Europe we dont get them this run but if it stays blocked we have a great chance. -10 uppers are what you need for guaranteed snow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Good evening. Here is this evening's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Saturday November 16th 2013.

All models show a cold North-westerly flow developing over the UK behind a cold front moving South on Monday. This sets up an interesting and cold spell of weather where the models diverge about outcomes quite early in the coming week.

GFS shows Low pressure sinking South over the East of the UKtowards midweek with a cold and showery flow over the UK intensifying into longer spells of rain, sleet or perhaps snow for a time North to South on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday pressure rises across the UK with the showers dying away with sunny spells but cold weather with frost and freezing fog developing overnight's, slow to clear. Through the extended part of the run tonight an elongated ridge of High pressure persists across the UK with occasional Easterly winds in the South and Westerly winds across the North. Other than that winds are shown to remain light with rather cold conditions at the surface with varying amounts of night frosts and fogs from place to place and night to night.

UKMO tonight shows a very cold spell coming up, especially in the South as a cold plunge of NNW winds with wintry showers early in the week give way to more prolonged precipitation for a time midweek, falling as snow over the hills. The end of the week sees Southern and Eastern areas cold and cloudy with rain, sleet or snow at times while the North and West see drier weather with frosts at night. A keen and occasionally strong NE flow will blow across the South later in the week.

GEM makes much less of the midweek feature with an innitial surge of chilly NW winds and wintry showers becoming replaced by dry, cold and quieter conditions for a time away from the far East and South with overnight frost and fog. Later in the run winds settle SE and strengthen markedly with some rain or sleet at times across the South and West.

NAVGEM shows a developing Low slipping South down the heart of the UK midweek with rain and sleet in abundance across the UK with snow over the hills. Needless to say it will be cold and windy too at times and as winds settled into the NE or east across Southern Britain at then end of the week and weekend further cold rain will fall at times while the North and West becomes largely dry but cold with some overnight frosts.

ECM tonight shows a cold and unsettled phase through the middle of the week with some wintry showers or rain and sleet at times. This become displaced later in the week, through the weekend and the start of the following week with High pressure ensconced across the UK with cold weather maintained and frost and overnight fog big problems for many.

The GFS Ensembles show a short cold period, shortest in the North as Low pressure migrates to the South of the UK and High to the North. This becomes eroded as pressure becomes fairly High over the UK and uppers dilute out. There will be quite a variation at the surface though as low levels of the atmosphere could become jolly chilly under frost and freezing fog. As usual at the end of the run the weather turns much more undecided with various options being shown.

The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the North of the UK turning South down over the UK early next week with an eventual settling of the flow across the Atlantic and over the UK late in the period.

In Summary tonight the weather is about to turn colder but for how long? The models differ in the evolutions from quite early in the run with differences varying from UKMO's undercutting scenario with the High to the North and NE and Low to the SE to ECM's large UK based and persistent High pressure. All evolutions look like sustaining cold air close to the surface irrespective of uppers as the Uk would develop it's own cold pool under ECM's High pressure based outcome. Chances of snow have increased somewhat tonight as there is rather more made of the midweek feature slipping South near or over the UK. Longer term though no particularly cold weather is likely in the more distant future synoptic patterns as shown would provide potential for further cold weather down the line.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm