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Another downgrade, and indeed towards the end of the run the jet is showing signs of flattening out.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png
Disagree with you, 12z ended with cool/cold days and HP dominated as does the 18z
That's it then. BOM is the new best model. Well, until it shows an unfavourable solution, and then whichever one is showing cold becomes the new best one. Joking aside, still looks like a very seasonal week coming up. Typical autumn fare.
All of you know deep down, which model really is the best....
(and it isn't the ECM)
Originally Posted by: Matty H
ecm mean
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Now perhaps that ECM mean from the other day that caused such a kerfufle is making a bit more sense.No dramatic easterlies with sudden sub-zero incursions are on the menu just yet, but if synoptics continue to trend the way they are, it's only a matter of time IMO.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Indeed if its long term cold you are after then the ECM 10 day Mean is a Beauty. Stunning charts for the time of year.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html
Originally Posted by: Polar Low
GEM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0
UKMO: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021
GFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0
ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
Looks like its going to evelove into a northern blocked scenario so no doubt the mighty ECM will displace BOM this morning as a talking point.
ECM at 192 (deep FI) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
ECM at 240 - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
GEFS Ens London 0z: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres
A 4 to 5 day cold snap now seems pretty nailed on. The GEM shows some longevity, keeping things going with a weak Scandinavian Ridge out to day 9, before reverting to a flatter pattern depicted by GFS; the ECM with its more sustained nothern blocking will the connoisseurs' choice
London has the geatest chance of wintry precipitation on Wednesday, no doubt areas with altitude will stand a better chance.
Windward coastal areas with a long fetch will most likely only get rain whatever:
http://www.cincfleetwoc.com/HF-Fax/North_Atlantic/NEATL_HO_SST_UNCL_0000_T000.png.html
SSTs between 10 and 13 c!!
WI
Excellent summary WI
Snow into Scotland and n/western districts?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Originally Posted by: Sevendust
Originally Posted by: haghir22
Cheers. Nice to have my interest ignited by the turning of the season; some fascinating synoptics and the TIME!
gfs mean edges it into scadi looks quite a cold outlook there.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=180&code=21&mode=0&carte=1
0z ECM ensembles:http://oi42.tinypic.com/2cco00z.jpgQuite a downgrade in terms of cold today - whereas yesterday there were a couple of days with a 3C mean maximum, today it's 4C and 6C respectively. It's still a few degrees below average, mind you.
Originally Posted by: Retron
Sadly, yes. A lifting in temps , was showing IMBY 2's ,3's and 4's now the dizzy heights of 6
...and close to bringing in decent WAA up E Greenland to help promote heights further?
Originally Posted by: idj20