Good morning. Here is the latest look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday November 17th 2013.
The General Situation. The UK lies in a benign and slack pattern currently with a weak front across Central areas which will reactivate later as a wave runs NE along it. To the North the weather will be clearer and colder with wintry showers flooding into the North and West tonight. Light rain across Central areas will become heavier from the SW through the day and extending back further North while Southern areas stay cloudy and misty but mostly dry. A cold front crosses SE late tonight and tomorrow with a cold and blustery NW flow developing for all up to midweek with showers, increasingly wintry over the North and West but not many reaching the SE. On Wednesday a Low sinks SSE down the North Sea with a spell of rain and hill sleet and snow for a time before a swing of winds to the NE on Thursday maintains cold weather and returns us into a day of sunshine and scattered wintry showers mostly in the East and SE. By the weekend High pressure will lie over the UK having moved down from the NW with dry and fine weather for all areas but with extensive mist, freezing fog and frost problems developing overnight and slow to clear, if at all through the daytimes.
GFS then wobbles the High pressure area around at times taking it slowly to the West of the UK while maintaining a ridge across the UK for some considerable time before it sinks South to allow a strong Atlantic Westerly flow to bring milder and cloudy conditions with rain at times particularly in the North and West to close the run.
UKMO closes it's run with High pressure positioned across the UK with light winds and cold conditions prevailing with widespread night frosts and fog patches but bright and crisp days, the fog chiefly across Northern areas as something of a NE flow will continue to blow across SE Britain preventing the formation of this.
GEM holds a cold Northerly flow across the UK late next week and weekend with wintry showers continuing to affect many Northern and Eastern areas while the West and SW see little of these with bright and cold conditions and frost at night. Then early next week the pattern collapses as Low pressure winds up in the North Atlantic and pushes milder and unsettled weather across all areas with rain at times towards the middle of next week.
NAVGEM today shows a chilly Northerly flow reluctant to leave the East of the UK next weekend with further wintry showers especially near North Sea coasts. Many Southern and western areas would be mostly dry and rather cold with frost at night. This East/West split is then held out to the end of the run.
ECM this morning shows High pressure over Iceland a week from now moving SE with a ridge ahead of it over the UK. The weather would be cold with frost and fog by night becoming more extensive towards the end of the run as the core of the High pressure sits directly over the UK. A light NE flow remains over the far SE keeping the worst of any fog patches away from down here. It will be cold everywhere.
The GFS Ensembles today show that High pressure will generally rule the roost across the UK for the foreseeable future. The eneral trend os to shift it to the NE, unlike the operational solution before then weakening as Atlantic low pressure moves in far out in the outer reaches of the run. Rainfall amounts look like being relatively small for the time of year with most likely towards the North at first and again towards the end of the run.
The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North turning South over the UK through this week before splitting North and South of the UK as a UK based anticyclone looks likely to develop through the latter end of the week, weekend and possibly into the week to follow.
In Summary the weather looks like turning colder for all. Deep cold is not expected though and there will be a lot of dry weather to be found over the UK once a rather unsettled phase of weather through the middle of this coming week disperses. Through this period rain and showers will turn wintry over higher ground but once more this morning no great amounts look likely from any output. Of more importance will be the marked increase in the incidence of frost which will affect all areas from quite early in the coming week. Then once the expected High pressure moves down from the NW freezing fog looks like becoming an additional hazard with the chance of it's failure to clear from notorious fog hollows by day in which instance it will stay very cold. So all in all the last 10 days or so of November offer very seasonal late Autumn weather with a lot of dry weather with overnight frosts and fog, slow to clear at times and the chance of some showers, wintry on hills as a precursor to this through the coming working week.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset