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I wasn't impressed with the models this morning bar the ECM.
Bog standard set up for late Autumn.
GFS not budging. Oh dear. I feel a bad evening coming on
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Well one thing it's been quite persistant on is getting some really cold air into N Europe later on, and 'Melissa' aids in that process by pumping WAA up towards Greenland over the weekend.I expect a few 'dream' scenarios developing in early FI in the next few runs.
maybe we will have to wait but it could be worth it
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111812/gfs-1-312.png?12
looks like we may be without ukmo charts for a while ................... meteociel message doesnt impress and no 12z run on wz.
Interestingly - a year or so ago when we were waiting for the "best from the east" that never came... The ECM was the first to cave and started to show a milder solution - with the GFS and all the other models slow to respond. For Days we waited as all the models slowly caved until it was just the GFS holding out.
So Ill ask the question that was asked then when the ECM turned around, causing sleepless nights etc...
"Does the ECM know something the other models dont?"
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111812/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Originally Posted by: Zubzero
Thats one hell of a northerly setting itself up. Perhaps GFS isnt so crazy afTer all though.
CHRIS FAWKES MET OFFICE TWITTER
Temperatures plummet Tue - Thurs before recovering but probably still bit below normal rest of November. Another cold plunge first half Dec?
Anyone saying Russia needs to go into the chiller first before we ask for an easterly - this would deliver it in spades.
NAVGEM a lot better, but has moved towards GFS a bit
Some cold uppers still feed into the SE corner
Are you sure Q looks a cold run for east and s/e
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=126&code=0&mode=1&carte=1&archive=0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=1&carte=1
And the NAVGEM has left the party, leaving the ECM0 as the sole member of the cold club.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
Still no UKMO 12z?
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
Ferguson may reveal all on the other forum
They've changed the data files so that meteociel (and I think wz) can't (or won't) display them. So for now, we have lost access.
GEM remains more amplified than GFS. Nothing too special, but at least its a good sign
wouldnt surprise me if this ended up as the solution
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013111812/gem-0-144.png?12
should be very cold and frosty and hopefully retrogress later
Originally Posted by: NickR
Oh your kidding!
oh well, can't wait for the ECM. Although surely it cannot better this mornings update(?)…. We wait in hope.
And a certain amount of trepidation.
We have one UKMO chart, but perhaps a mistake but it says 12z
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111812/UW42-21.GIF?18-18
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=42&carte=1021
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=60&carte=1021
may have loaded data late running a little behind
Originally Posted by: Charmhills
It is starting to come out now on meteociel
its out but poor.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021
