Edit: Quote: Not impressed to see a few people breaking down already - it's very early days!
We look to have just had something I've seen numerous times in the past, which is some of the models showing a particular setup developing with too much haste but then having to slow it down.
In this case, GFS has been coming the other way, which is fairly typical when there's blocking to the N and NE involved.
The meeting at halfway house could be upon us soon... and UKMO will be waiting inside with a smug look on it's Right now, it seems we have a major displacement on offer from GFS and a marginal split from ECM. It may be at 192h+ range, but at this time of year that's a lot better than should ever be considered normal!. (quote)
(Quote fixed)
In Reply to Stormchaser I am also sharing this dilemma on here.
It is very common to say if the GFS gets solid runs showing the SCEURO Bartlett High for this time of November and the UKMO follows it you'd not be having a very good time enjoying the Weather after this Friday- we will see average heavy rain with near normal Temperatures Tuesday to Friday at least- make the best of the Cold mixed Arctic NW then NE flow.
Bearing this Gyres of Low Pressure go over the UK high - good work wonderer's of Winter - the UK NW Euope SCEURO just being like Brian's much endorsed Type not being wanting to move at all.
The Norway Svalbard SE Arctic Low tracks moving straight across Greenland and NE of Iceland then nose down far NE Europe - is the Zonal Positive NAO epic weather pattern- Let me also say Temporary Greenland High - does not help retrogression of SCEURO UK Anticyclone- for a few days GFS and UKMO models show no sign of a let down of it.
I see Deep Low Pressure also moving round round over Western Mid N Atlantic- not at all show resistance to push out the UK High- for now next Saturday and Sunday are just boring weather for much of the Britain mainland- but it likely could bring night frosts and lots of thick fog patches for many especially away from the cold ENE flow over SE England.
From Sunday 24th to Tuesday 26th Nov. 2013- that Low Pressure today's GFS is getting hard to move out - sat in GFS 18z run in West Mid N Atlantic- UK high could move a little west so we stay chilly with frost early and late - and of course with fog some may be freezing during overnights.
Much happy quotes of the day for all paying respect to my thoughts!.
Edited by user
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:10:54 AM
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Reason: Had a problem trying figure out how quote is done.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.