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Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 10:48:57 AM

You can tell the GFS is trying to do something more interesting. An attempt yet again to build a greenland high, is half forfilled with a chunk of HP pulling away to the UK. And the NAVGEM is still trying to get it first time, with a slight revsision back towards last nights 18Z. At this stage ~20% chance of some northern blocking, which to me is pretty dissapointing. Sorry, people, I can't get too much joy out of inversion conditions. You can't even get particularly cold air under UK highs, the bone chilling nights and ice days are far more likely under a deep cold airmass, than they are over a UK high. 


EDIT: some heavy wintry showers progged, especially for E England, from the NAVGEM 6z as a scandi high develops. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 10:57:50 AM

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201314_ensmodel.gif


Ensemble forecasts for melissa.


Does anyone know: are tropical cyclones more difficult to predict the track of, than conventional mid latitude depressions? There is still quite a large range of possibilities offered for where melissa finally ends up. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:21:01 AM

Very diffcult to call Q


if you play back each NHS Advisory on the top left panel over the last day you can see the vast difference in the 5 day track cone.


which is very intresting.


 


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083733.shtml?gm_track&large#contents


also taken from same source


BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS A NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OR LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING MORE EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES.


 


 



 


http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201314_ensmodel.gif


Ensemble forecasts for melissa.


Does anyone know: are tropical cyclones more difficult to predict the track of, than conventional mid latitude depressions? There is still quite a large range of possibilities offered for where melissa finally ends up. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:30:15 AM

Wow look at the NAVGEM 6Z from the NH point of view, there really is strong N blocking developing. We have an arctic high moving south into greenland, and the atlantic high ready to ridge north to meet it. Trend or anomoly? 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
White Meadows
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:36:04 AM
Hi Quantum can you post these Navgem 6z links please?
Polar Low
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:39:37 AM

Im not to sure but I think maybe J Holmes done some very long term research on that and found the 6z gfs run the most correct of the 4 gfs runs.


 



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  ECM in the lead, followed by GFS and the UKMO. CMC = GEM, I believe.


 


EDIT, My Bad, GFS runs link should be 


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


for the 500hPa


 


Also at T+240:


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


Arcus;551474">[quote=Arcus wrote:

Polar Low
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:42:30 AM
Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:49:00 AM


For WM


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yeh, look at the position of the arctic high. Its centred over W greenland rather than canada, and the mid atlantic ridge is getting pretty close. Could see some upgrades, if the navgem is onto something. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nsrobins
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:52:11 AM


Im not to sure but I think maybe J Holmes done some very long term research on that and found the 6z gfs run the most correct of the 4 gfs runs.


 



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  ECM in the lead, followed by GFS and the UKMO. CMC = GEM, I believe.


 


EDIT, My Bad, GFS runs link should be 


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


for the 500hPa


 


Also at T+240:


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Arcus wrote:


The stats quoted would indicate the 06Z run is the poorest one, at least for the last month, but longer term this might not be true.
I suspect the differences long term are still minimal and not statistically significant.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:12:58 PM

NAVGEM has become the model of choice for us straw clutchers. But you never know, perhaps a slight upgrade maybe in store for the 12zs

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin P
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:18:20 PM

Hi all,


Here's today's 8-10 day video musing;


ECMWF Not As Cold Today;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Looks like some significant cold may be heading into eastern and north-eastern Europe next week, though?

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
NickR
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:41:04 PM



Im not to sure but I think maybe J Holmes done some very long term research on that and found the 6z gfs run the most correct of the 4 gfs runs.


 



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  ECM in the lead, followed by GFS and the UKMO. CMC = GEM, I believe.


 


EDIT, My Bad, GFS runs link should be 


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


for the 500hPa


 


Also at T+240:


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


The stats quoted would indicate the 06Z run is the poorest one, at least for the last month, but longer term this might not be true.
I suspect the differences long term are still minimal and not statistically significant.


Arcus wrote:


00z and 12z are better than 06z and 18z, but, as you say, the difference is not huge, although from the way some describe it you'd think 00z and 12z were based on scientific observations and the other two were created by a RNG.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:46:32 PM


NAVGEM has become the model of choice for us straw clutchers. But you never know, perhaps a slight upgrade maybe in store for the 12zs


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I actually genually think the NAVGEM is a good model does anyone has its verification 5/6 day stats?

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NickR
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:55:13 PM



NAVGEM has become the model of choice for us straw clutchers. But you never know, perhaps a slight upgrade maybe in store for the 12zs


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I actually genually think the NAVGEM is a good model does anyone has its verification 5/6 day stats?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Found these:


http://models.weatherbell.com/verf/navgem_nh_f120.png


Pretty poor.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:03:50 PM
Acc to these stats, over the last 7 days, ECM, GFS, and GEM are all up there close to each other, with ECM in the lead. Navgem, a few highlights aside, isn't great.

GFS: 0.886
GEM: 0.885
ECM: 0.900

NAVGEM doesn't give 7 day stats (you'd have to work it out), but it is at 0.823 in general, so significantly below the others.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
nsrobins
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:05:43 PM

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim


De Bilt ECM set still showing a cold cluster near the end.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:21:28 PM

Hard to say how this will end up


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:38:24 PM

All the time the high slugs around our latitude cold air keeps pumping into N Europe.
It may not be especially exciting for the UK stuck under cool, inverted, settled but 'seasonal' conditions, but it's a huge positive for anyone waiting for a decent NE blast at some point.
The alternative is a long and ugly Eurohigh sat over the Alps feeding maritime air right across N Europe, keeping us waiting for a lot longer.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:39:57 PM


Hard to say how this will end up


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It looks too wet to woo and a bit owlish to me.

New world order coming.
doctormog
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:42:41 PM


Hard to say how this will end up
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It looks too wet to woo and a bit owlish to me.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Brings a new meaning to high pressure nosing in I suppose 😝

That aside the outlook still looks generally anticyclonic after the next day or two.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
White Meadows
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:51:27 PM

GFS 12z is a T-shirt fest... Shows how things that change quickly in a few days can change back again even quicker!

Quantum
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:54:37 PM

Pity the NAVGEM isn't up to the standards of the ECM, as its trying yet again to establish northern blocking. In fact there is pretty much no change from the 6z run, and some snow in the SE brought in by a scandi. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 4:59:26 PM


All the time the high slugs around our latitude cold air keeps pumping into N Europe.
It may not be especially exciting for the UK stuck under cool, inverted, settled but 'seasonal' conditions, but it's a huge positive for anyone waiting for a decent NE blast at some point.
The alternative is a long and ugly Eurohigh sat over the Alps feeding maritime air right across N Europe, keeping us waiting for a lot longer.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I agree Neil it will help us long termm surely???

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 5:00:47 PM


GFS 12z is a T-shirt fest... Shows how things that change quickly in a few days can change back again even quicker!


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


really


 


you must be mad

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


NickR
Tuesday, November 19, 2013 5:02:18 PM



GFS 12z is a T-shirt fest... Shows how things that change quickly in a few days can change back again even quicker!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png


really


 


you must be mad


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Yes, that might get a light cardigan put on as well up here.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
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