Looks pretty chilly to me with a light SE flow which at this time of year ain't warm!

Only just got a chance to get online and see what's happened today.

Ouch ECM! Not sure I'll ever look at the model in quite the same light after it has underestimated trough energy so much.

As of this evening, it looks like we have to sit back and watch the rather unstable PV go about its business with the main lobes  near/over Greenland and near/over Siberia. There will always be the chance of some energy sliding to create a bit of an easterly or at least a brief northerly. ECM 12z op run may have got a bit carried away with the Atlantic energy 216-240h, but the powerful winter storm on days 5-7 does look to push a lot of deeply cold air across Canada, generating a very strong thermal gradient, so a strong Atlantic trough is entirely within reasonable limits. Ideally we would then see a strong ridge behind with the PV energy bundling up to our E and NE, but that's not really on offer tonight.

This reminds me to some extent of December 2012, when the PV energy was also tending to head to our NW, except that this time around the PV isn't as strong so high pressure looks to have more of a say in our weather while we wait and wonder.

Don't you think this trend has been apparent for a couple of days now?   With each successive run the energy to our north has been ramped up and the high pressure nudged both south and, more importantly, sliding east in the prevailing flow.  It's almost looking like one of the old 'quasi-Bartlett' patterns at the moment.    As you say the PV is being modelled to dominate to the north, but as importantly, the high pressure belt to our south is a little further north and dominant, leaving nowhere for the jet to go except on a northerly track.

None of this means that the pattern is fixed, of course, but we are firmly back into the run of low heights to the north and a mobile pattern.

Not sure I'd go with mobile from a UK point of view - might be very mobile away to the North of us but much less mobile for us than was the case before the current pattern shift. Given HP usually hangs on over us for longer than projected wouldn't be surprised if it stays cold at the surface for a good while yet

I suspect its the usual case of model picks up change in conditions and runs away with it in FI. This gets moderated down nearer the time and model then picks up new signal (in this case more energy and the PV reforming) and runs away with this signal.

Give it 3 or 4 days and we'll hopefully be seeing past the injection of energy and back to something more interesting (if you like colder stuff anyway). Or it might just turn boringly mild and zonal with HP bunted to the south of us and the jet happily zipping away over us

P.S UKMO 144 looks vaguely interesting - shape of the HP suggests a possible Northerly slightly further down the line to me as the HP drifts in to the Atlantic and Northwards...

That is the depressing reality. As you say, it may not be fixed, but it's the type of pattern that can be notoriously difficult to shift. 

If one is looking (down here) for quiet days and quiet nights then the prognosis is excellent.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday November 19th 2013.

All models show a deepening depression slipping SE down the North Sea then South across to Southern Europe on Thursday. Fronts associated with it will sweep SE across the UK tonight and tomorrow with rain for all and snow on the highest ground for a time. The cold front could be quite active with hail and squally winds ahead of a change to cold and bright weather with scattered showers, wintry in the North. Unsettled conditions then clear the South on Thursday with High pressure building quickly down over the UK from the NW where it then sits for the reliable future with dry, crisp days but with cold, frosty nights and the possibility of fog too, freezing in places.

GFS then shows High pressure meandering around in the vicinity of the British Isles until nearer the end of the run when Low pressure half-heartedly tries to give a semi-breakdown in conditions with some rain at times then. Temperatures overall will be on the cold side of average at the surface, often due to frost, mist and fog. Things may warm up a little late in the run as milder Atlantic winds show occasional success at moving into the UK from the West.

UKMO tonight shows High pressure over the South-western half of the UK with a slack Westerly flow developing over the North. Most areas will stay cold and dry with sunshine by day with frost and fog problems night and morning. The far North may see cloudier weather moving in off the Atlantic later restricting frosts and fog by night and raising daytime temperatures a little too.

GEM tonight also shows High pressure settling down near to SW parts of the UK through the latter end of the run. With Westerly winds rounding the Northern flank of the High there would be an infill of cloud from off the Atlantic first across the North and later the South too so after a cold and frosty start the weather would become milder but cloudier day and night but the threat of Anticyclonic gloom becomes a real possibility should this run evolve.

NAVGEM once more holds High pressure further to the North over Scotland or the Northern North Sea. The net result of this would be to keep the weather cold for all with a stronger Easterly flow over the South. This would make things feel very cold here with some sunshine at times but though frosty overnight fog would be less of a problem. Northern areas on the other hand would see plenty in the way of frost and fog as skies stay clear and winds stay light.

ECM tonight completes a very High pressure dominated set of model runs tonight as High pressure refuses to leave our shores gradually migrating to the East and SW but maintaining a ridge with it's axis West to east over the UK. As a result quiet weather will persist with frost and fog night and morning, slow to clear in places. Daytime temperatures may nudge up a degree or two later if fog clears and frosts become less harsh, especially towards the North as the Atlantic becomes poised to end the fine spell on Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a lot of High pressure over the first 10 days though the NW may see some milder and more unsettled conditions next week. Later in the run the chances of this unsettled weather spreading to all areas increases with WNW winds likely to bring rain or sleet at times with snow on hills possible late in the period.

The Jet Stream is flowing directly South near the British Isles at the moment before it ridges High over the Atlantic setting up a blocked pattern and a High pressure over the UK by the weekend. Longer term there is a hint that it may change trajectory to allow a WNW to ESE flow across the North Atlantic and down over the UK.

In Summary the weather will be fine and dry for much of the period with High pressure remaining in close proximity to the UK. All models with the exception of NAVGEM do show a more Southerly axis to the High pressure belt tonight with a trend even further South late in the outputs as the Atlantic becomes more threatening and likely to invade our shores again with time.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Can't say I am overly-surprised at the pattern that the models are now progging heading into the later half of November and December.

This just never had the suggestion of anything remotely similar to 2010 as Matty alluded to on several occasions.

The default pattern of zonal appears to be the way forward for the forseeable future after the next few days of cooler weather - and as has been mentioned - nothing out of the ordinary.

I personally think it will prove a very frustrating wait for anything particularly wintry this side of the new year, but time as ever will tell.

Thanks Martin

Id take that with open arms tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1

Dear me what a waste My projector cries out in pain///

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Can you point me to the charts that show default zonal after the next few days

5 days out on ECM looks HP dominated to me:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/120_mslp500.png

and further out still HP ruling the roost

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/192_mslp500.png

GFS at 5 days

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_120_mslp850.png

and further out

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_192_mslp850.png

And UKMO to complete the main set:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Yep the HP is slowly sinking on GFS and ECM but zonal over us it isn't - not until much further out in FI on GFS. Even then it's not exactly a train of LPS over us.

Whilst the Dec/Nov 2010 analogies were pretty fanciful anyone glancing at some of the comments in this thread would think it's shortly to be mild wet and windy all the way (i.e Zonal) and it's not. No it's not a big freeze but it will be generally chilly and dry, with frost if skies clear and probably freezing fog for some too.

Not intended as an attack on you btw Moomin - I'd agree nothing overly cold is shown to develop in terms of cold + snow and a proper cold air source.

There is definitely nothing "out of the ordinary" ahead in the forseeable future, but certainly an opportunity for some seasonal cooler weather (not cold), but crisp and seasonal, followed by perhaps a return to something more zonal as we head into December (in my opinion).

I still see a disrupted PV with plenty of high pressure around as a situation that has some potential long-term i.e. 4-6 weeks from now. To be honest it's largely a gut feeling coupled with recent CFS trends, but  I'm not particularly surprised to see ECM and GFS meeting somewhere in the middle, with the long-term goal remaining in sight IMO.

As far as the 'ouch ECM' statement goes, it was very keen on holding the energy back until this morning's 00z, at which point it not only allowed to progress but also allowed it to develop substantially. The 12z run only took things further still.

If I was forced to make a call for the next few weeks, it'd be often settled with a range of airmasses giving a mix of conditions - but often seasonal in their feel.

Is the term "modern winter" still banned! Another model fantasy cold spell ruined by the northern jet

Far too far out to take seriously, but the extent and depth of the very warm air being pumped to Greenland by the monster low over Canada is impressive.....  interesting to ponder what that might hypothetically lead to.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

Andrew

Just to clarify, when I said mobile I wasn't referring to the locailty of the UK, it was an observation of the overall pattern across the North Atlantic.

I don't think anyone should ever put any great confidence in the specifics of one run from one model beyond around Day 5, do you?   What I try to watch is the trends and the consistency - the latter is fairly rare.   The trend in recent days has been to get rid of upper heights to the north and restore the 'normal pattern' of low to the north and high to the south.  The only variation is, as you say, that the high pressure has migrated a little north to offer us settled conditions. 

But the key is that the jet is going north and has nowhere else to go but north when you've got that entrenched high pressure belt just to the south. Until that loosens it's grip then we're not getting on the northern side of the jet and that means what used to be called here 'faux cold' only.

For all Steve's expertise and excellent insights, he has - in his terms - something of an inbuilt cold bias....

It's great to read his predictions if you have a secret or not-so-secret longing for a notable cold spell but the reality is that he occasionally cherry picks like the rest of us.  That's not a criticism, just the way it is.

In passing, here are the 12z ECM ensemble graphs for London

There's distinctly more spaghetti in FI than there was even a day or so ago, and the mean has crept up just a little.  At least the GFS and ECM 12z means were saying something similar today.  Not always the case.

Looks to me that we are ending a few hundred miles on the wrong side of a flat jet stream. Basically no real cold being predicted.