http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201314_ensmodel.gif

Perhaps this is why the ensembles are still pretty scattered.

Melissa still hasn't really decided where she is going. I'm assuming the OP models are thinking she will take the northern track towards greenland however the southern track may be intersting. 

---

melissa is history as far as the story is concerned. she wont affect the general theme of MLB followd by ???.  Rob, i'm talking week 2 before you begin to see the pattern starting to amplify again so that means you wont see anything on ecm for a good few days yet. mind you, the op has form on bringing the pattern forward, only to come into line with the ens at a later date.

Today's 12z runs now take the track eastwards towards Iberia but Melissa loses strength as it moves east of the Azores and dissipates west of Iberia at the weekend.  That'a also what the latest NOAA plot indicates.

It's interesting how the path has altered so markedly - a couple of days ago Melissa was expected to be caught up in the circulation of the upper and surface low exiting Newfoundland but that feature now spins north and passes up the western side of Greenland.

As Nick says, it's not going to influence the long wave pattern.

---

Hi David

Yes, I noticed where the main PV was shown but was more concerned about the low pressure signalled to be in the Iceland area, which tends to drive our weather.   That plus the high pressure to the south that is displaced into the sort of position you tend to associate with summer.

Today'x ECM 12z mean at T+240 actually stretches the PV back across Greenland again.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112012/EDH1-240.GIF?20-0 

The 850hPa chart shows the sub-zero air restricted to Scotland now, i.e. a slight northward drift.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112012/EDH0-240.GIF?20-0 

 

It's worth bearing in mind that the models can only extrapolate from the opening inputs and the atmosphere will throw in some unexpected developments, in the same way that the current spell moved from a solid few days of northerlies to what we have now.

---

Can't get much worse than this from ECM.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

---

That's a dreadful chart for winter fans

---

Yes, Martin, I agree - just made that observation.   The associated 850hPa chart confines the sub-zero air to Scotland.

On the other hand a dry spell with average temperatures won't go amiss at this stage of the autumn.

From past patterns you'd be more concerned if you had a winter sports business in the lower altitiude Alpine resorts.

---

Guess I'll just have to enjoy 192 hours of fog, low cloud, hazy sunshine, marginally frosty nights and irratatingly chilly days. Great...

---

Only on here could 8 days be described as "192 hours"

---

With very cold air coming into central Europe I think we need to keep an eye on dew points for inversion potential as we move into the start of December - If the high pressure goes on that long, we could start to get some pretty severe frosts setting in;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30010.png

 

---

I never mind an MLB. It sits waiting for something more interesting to come along whilst giving us decent surface seasonal conditions.

Will it sink or retrogress?

Hmmm, after this weekend you will be lucky to see any hazy sunshine or frost.

most of us can look forward to 10 days of anticyclonic gloom.

just what the doctor ordered

Andy

---

Isn't the sensible money always on it sinking?  Doesn't it only retrogress if there's upper heights to the north to pull it that way?  Whatever, it's not retrogressing until the jet shifts - like trying to cross a busy motorway otherwise, i.e. not possible....

---

December '07? Could be faux cold all over again.

Mild from the mid term to the forseeable

 

Been on the cards

 

- T/O

---

Pleased from my own point of view. Had me worried a proper cold spell was on the way for a while there. Don't worry, coldies, it's not even winter yet.

M.

---

Just Had a 12z look at the UKMO, 12z at ECMWF and an 18z throughput at the GFS 18z Output.

Plenty of Encouragement to enable us in the UK to stay at Centre of Anticyclone Gloom.

A lot of the Cold Air from the Greenland and SE Arctic is transported to East and NNE Europe, with Large deep Low P. Vortex- pushed SSE to E Europe & SE Central Europe.

NE USA and E Canada PV Low gains hold of NW Atlantic Low and that the GFS UKMO and ECMWF runs all push to Greenland- allowing Cold Weather in its wake in E Canada and Newfoundland NE USA in the departure of the PFJ NW Atlantic via E Canada Low- it Deepens and cruises whoosh through Greenland and Iceland to West N Norwegian Sea later.

Well the Large High sitting over NE N Mid Side E Atlantic is just going to spread- so does the High over Central mid NE USA with a cold NNW flow to their NE - Newfoundland SE Canada et all.

---

You haven't seen chubby rain then?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DGu5X3Dy0I

But yeh, it looks pretty grim. Really need a decent arctic high to split the pv. 

---

GFS 18z gives sub-zero nights and maximums in the mid-single digits through much of FI. That's inversion conditions for you - classic stagnant cold situation at the surface.

Most GFS runs manage to summon up high pressure in the Arctic at some point in FI, which relates to the PV being disorganised. Nick is right to pose the 'sink or retrogress' question based on that, IMO.

In the mid-term, we look to be seeing PV energy to our NW, but it looks to be competing with PV energy over Siberia rather than working alongside it, with the energy divided between them, resulting in smaller PV complexes in both cases.

In such situations, the Atlantic westerlies will be out in force, but at higher latitudes than normal, leaving the UK prone to persistent high pressure. There will also be some chance of seeing the PV segments slide to lower latitudes while high pressure ridges into the Arctic - that's the PV split scenario that appears to be our best shot at anything noteworthy this side of the New Year.

...hopefully that's explained why the current run of charts can look rather dire in terms of the synoptic setup near to the UK (though I'm not seeing them that way until if and when anticyclonic gloom is confirmed), yet actually contain some real promise on the broad scale.

---

I wouldn't call it mild, since it is not zonal. It is going to be settled and the surface temps will be seasonal.

---

Hi everyone. Here is today's morning report from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 21st 2013.

All models show High pressure to the NW gradually gaining total control over the UK weather for the foreseeable future. Today will see the remnants of yesterday's Low still affect England and Wales with some showers but these will decay with time and from tomorrow on it really is just a case of how much cloud gets caught up in the circulation of our slow moving anticyclone which will totally determine what weather results at the surface. It looks increasingly likely that there will be a fair amount of cloud at times with the best breaks across the West and South. As a result frosts will be most likely here but  elsewhere too where skies clear but freezing fog patches will be more restrictive place to place and day today as the variability of cloud continues next week. Daytime temperatures may recover to average without the presence of fog but very much below where this persists.

GFS then shows a rather cloudy NW flow towards midweek before a return to High pressure continues the variable nature of cloud cover and frost and fog chances. In fact most areas are shown to become milder and cloudy for a time under a West breeze as the High slips South to France. Then at the end of the run a push of cold air South over Europe grazes Eastern Britain with a renewed strengthening and colder High pressure covering the UK at the end of the run.

UKMO maintains High pressure to the WSW of Britain at it's term and while fog and frost would be likely a lot of cloud would be rounding the High to the North and toppling down over the UK in the light Northerly drift restricting the risk at times and removing the chance of much in the way of sunshine too. Temperatures would gradually respond to less frost by reaching average levels at times during the day.

GEM today keeps a UK based High for much of next week before slipping it away to the South with a strong Westerly flow across the UK by next weekend. This would mean the fine and dry spell with patchy frosts would be replaced by mild and overcast weather with rain and drizzle near Northern and Western hills and coasts.

NAVGEM shows a strong Atlantic anticyclone over Ireland late next week and with warm uppers there will be a lot of cloud in it's circulation meaning 'anticyclonic gloom' for many with dry weather and temperatures close to average and only very restricted amounts of fog and frost at night due to cloud cover.

ECM today too shows a cloudy High developing next week as the frosts and cold air of the weekend dissolve into 'anticyclonic gloom' next week. As a result temperatures will rise to average levels by day especially. Longer term there are hints of a flirtation with a cold surge over Europe but being on the periphery only minor changes to a brighter and colder phase looks likely in the East before milder and cloudy air topples back across from the West at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a period of sustained normality and average conditions for the next 10-14 days with little chance of significant weather of any kind. Instead most members show High pressure in the wrong place to deliver clear blue skies and sunshine but instead are likely to infill with cloud and with little or no wind a period of 'featureless' weather is indicated. Things are hinted at becoming a little more unsettled late in the run as Low pressure makes some inroads into the UK.

The Jet Stream continues to be programmed to be powering East well to the North of the UK over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia for the reliable future.

In Summary it looks pretty bleak for weather observers of any kind this morning as the position of High pressure becomes condusive in preventing anything other than bland and benign conditions across the UK for the foreseeable future. With High pressure to the West or WSW the UK will come under the influence of warmer uppers and atmosphered filled cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over Britain next week. So after a chilly weekend with frost and fog possibilities it looks like next week could become cloudy and mostly dry with little day/night variance in temperatures as the term 'anticyclonic gloom' becomes borne out. Should skies clear then fog and frost is still possible of course and is impossible to predict at this range. However, with just the far reaches of extended outputs showing anything different to this pattern we are going to have to be very patient over the next few weeks of model watching and search for model to model and run to run support for trends.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm 

---

Looking at GFS in particular, there's simply not enough tomatoes in the atmosphere for us to expect any snow across England in the next week or so.  Doesn't mean conditions won't improve as we head towards Christmas though, so don't right winter off ust yet

---

 Along with meatballs.

But on a serious note, it does look like this tiny corner of the world is set to pick up a couple more wet days while the rest of the UK has bright days and frost and fog by night . . . dare I say it but if only it is mid-January. What's the betting that I will never get to see this type of synoptics come deep winter anyway.

PS: Cheers as always, Martin.

---

Looks like anticyclonic gloom will dominate into next week rather then clear sky's and freezing fog.

---

MLB persists. the north of the uk prone to incursions from deep systems running west to east well to the north of scotland. thereafter the trend for the north of scandi to become home to a deep mean trough and our block will meander back to the mid atlantic. mean flow becomes north of west and potentially colder uppers by the end of the first week dec.