Hi everyone. Here is today's morning report from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday November 21st 2013.
All models show High pressure to the NW gradually gaining total control over the UK weather for the foreseeable future. Today will see the remnants of yesterday's Low still affect England and Wales with some showers but these will decay with time and from tomorrow on it really is just a case of how much cloud gets caught up in the circulation of our slow moving anticyclone which will totally determine what weather results at the surface. It looks increasingly likely that there will be a fair amount of cloud at times with the best breaks across the West and South. As a result frosts will be most likely here but elsewhere too where skies clear but freezing fog patches will be more restrictive place to place and day today as the variability of cloud continues next week. Daytime temperatures may recover to average without the presence of fog but very much below where this persists.
GFS then shows a rather cloudy NW flow towards midweek before a return to High pressure continues the variable nature of cloud cover and frost and fog chances. In fact most areas are shown to become milder and cloudy for a time under a West breeze as the High slips South to France. Then at the end of the run a push of cold air South over Europe grazes Eastern Britain with a renewed strengthening and colder High pressure covering the UK at the end of the run.
UKMO maintains High pressure to the WSW of Britain at it's term and while fog and frost would be likely a lot of cloud would be rounding the High to the North and toppling down over the UK in the light Northerly drift restricting the risk at times and removing the chance of much in the way of sunshine too. Temperatures would gradually respond to less frost by reaching average levels at times during the day.
GEM today keeps a UK based High for much of next week before slipping it away to the South with a strong Westerly flow across the UK by next weekend. This would mean the fine and dry spell with patchy frosts would be replaced by mild and overcast weather with rain and drizzle near Northern and Western hills and coasts.
NAVGEM shows a strong Atlantic anticyclone over Ireland late next week and with warm uppers there will be a lot of cloud in it's circulation meaning 'anticyclonic gloom' for many with dry weather and temperatures close to average and only very restricted amounts of fog and frost at night due to cloud cover.
ECM today too shows a cloudy High developing next week as the frosts and cold air of the weekend dissolve into 'anticyclonic gloom' next week. As a result temperatures will rise to average levels by day especially. Longer term there are hints of a flirtation with a cold surge over Europe but being on the periphery only minor changes to a brighter and colder phase looks likely in the East before milder and cloudy air topples back across from the West at the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles show a period of sustained normality and average conditions for the next 10-14 days with little chance of significant weather of any kind. Instead most members show High pressure in the wrong place to deliver clear blue skies and sunshine but instead are likely to infill with cloud and with little or no wind a period of 'featureless' weather is indicated. Things are hinted at becoming a little more unsettled late in the run as Low pressure makes some inroads into the UK.
The Jet Stream continues to be programmed to be powering East well to the North of the UK over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia for the reliable future.
In Summary it looks pretty bleak for weather observers of any kind this morning as the position of High pressure becomes condusive in preventing anything other than bland and benign conditions across the UK for the foreseeable future. With High pressure to the West or WSW the UK will come under the influence of warmer uppers and atmosphered filled cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over Britain next week. So after a chilly weekend with frost and fog possibilities it looks like next week could become cloudy and mostly dry with little day/night variance in temperatures as the term 'anticyclonic gloom' becomes borne out. Should skies clear then fog and frost is still possible of course and is impossible to predict at this range. However, with just the far reaches of extended outputs showing anything different to this pattern we are going to have to be very patient over the next few weeks of model watching and search for model to model and run to run support for trends.
Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset